Yes position
Will Trump say "Taiwan" or "Tibet" during events with Xi Jinping?
Ends May 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $625
- Potential profit
- $625
- User PnL
- -$5
Polymarket Trader
0x8c10e6d8b23321F5885BF238989Fc4e7730eAb50-1777698027276
0x8c10e6d8b23321f5885bf238989fc4e7730eab50
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $680.74
- Realized PnL
- $1.51K
- Win rate
- 100%
- Open positions
- 24
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
No position
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?
Ends Jul 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 62.5%
- Current value
- $363.9
- Potential payout
- $582.24
- Potential profit
- $218.34
- Multiplier
- 1.60x
- User PnL
- $63.9
Yes position
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.7%
- Current value
- $3.89
- Potential payout
- $555.56
- Potential profit
- $551.67
- Multiplier
- 142.86x
- User PnL
- -$1.11
No position
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on May 28?
Ends May 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $538.61
- Potential profit
- $538.61
- User PnL
- -$420
Up position
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET
Ends May 25, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $347.92
- Potential profit
- $347.92
- User PnL
- -$60
No position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 78.5%
- Current value
- $246.29
- Potential payout
- $313.75
- Potential profit
- $67.46
- Multiplier
- 1.27x
- User PnL
- $46.29
Down position
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET
Ends May 25, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $242.23
- Potential profit
- $242.23
- User PnL
- -$200
Down position
Ethereum Up or Down - May 26, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET
Ends May 26, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $200
- Potential profit
- $200
- User PnL
- -$2
Yes position
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on May 3?
Ends May 3, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $177.03
- Potential profit
- $177.03
- User PnL
- -$50
Yes position
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on May 29?
Ends May 29, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $155
- Potential profit
- $155
- User PnL
- -$20
Yes position
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C or higher on May 28?
Ends May 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $150.57
- Potential profit
- $150.57
- User PnL
- -$50
Up position
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET
Ends May 25, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $135.14
- Potential profit
- $135.14
- User PnL
- -$50
Up position
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET
Ends May 25, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $111.78
- Potential profit
- $111.78
- User PnL
- -$25
Up position
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET
Ends May 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $100
- Potential profit
- $100
- User PnL
- -$1
Up position
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET
Ends May 25, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $100
- Potential profit
- $100
- User PnL
- -$50
Down position
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET
Ends May 26, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $100
- Potential profit
- $100
- User PnL
- -$2
Down position
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET
Ends May 27, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $83.33
- Potential profit
- $83.33
- User PnL
- -$5
Yes position
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15?
Ends Jun 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $73.53
- Potential profit
- $73.53
- User PnL
- -$50
Yes position
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Ends Jul 20, 2026- Implied probability
- 18.5%
- Current value
- $11.25
- Potential payout
- $60.98
- Potential profit
- $49.73
- Multiplier
- 5.42x
- User PnL
- $1.25
Down position
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET
Ends May 25, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $56.82
- Potential profit
- $56.82
- User PnL
- -$25
Up position
Ethereum Up or Down - May 26, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET
Ends May 26, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $50
- Potential profit
- $50
- User PnL
- -$2
Yes position
Will United States win on 2026-06-19?
Ends Jun 19, 2026- Implied probability
- 61.5%
- Current value
- $30.25
- Potential payout
- $49.18
- Potential profit
- $18.93
- Multiplier
- 1.63x
- User PnL
- $0.25
Yes position
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15?
Ends Jun 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $48.39
- Potential profit
- $48.39
- User PnL
- -$30
No position
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Jimmy Kimmel by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 75.5%
- Current value
- $25.17
- Potential payout
- $33.33
- Potential profit
- $8.17
- Multiplier
- 1.32x
- User PnL
- $5.17
Resolved Context
Closed positions
No position
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on May 21?
Ends May 21, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $435.76
Yes position
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on May 26?
Ends May 26, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $111.82
No position
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C or higher on May 24?
Ends May 24, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $101.31
No position
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on May 25?
Ends May 25, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $101.05
No position
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on May 22?
Ends May 22, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $86.32
No position
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on May 21?
Ends May 21, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $70.81
No position
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 21°C on May 23?
Ends May 23, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $63.56
No position
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on May 30?
Ends May 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $56.09
Yes position
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on May 3?
Ends May 3, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $53.37
No position
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on May 28?
Ends May 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $50.5
No position
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on May 27?
Ends May 27, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $49.91
Yes position
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw?
Ends Jun 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $48.76
No position
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on May 27?
Ends May 27, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $42.23
Up position
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET
Ends May 25, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $34.75
No position
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on May 25?
Ends May 25, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $29.89
Up position
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET
Ends May 25, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $27.37
No position
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on May 21?
Ends May 21, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $26.99
Up position
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET
Ends May 25, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $23.46
No position
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jul 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $20.86
No position
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on May 28?
Ends May 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $17.65
No position
Will Bank of America or any of its underwriting affiliates serve as the lead underwriter in SpaceX’s initial public offering?
Ends Dec 31, 2027- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $17.38
Yes position
Will SpaceX’s IPO valuation be between 1.75T and 2.00T?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $14.71
No position
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C or higher on May 25?
Ends May 25, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $13.68
No position
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on May 24?
Ends May 24, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $13.07
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?No 59.5% 470.97 shares
- Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?Yes 2.4% 1,027.32 shares
- Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw?Yes 99.9% 58.82 shares
- Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw?Yes 17% 58.82 shares
- Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:50PM-12:55PM ETUp 99% 7.69 shares
- Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:50PM-12:55PM ETUp 65% 7.69 shares
- Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?Yes 1.9% 1,027.33 shares
- Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30?Yes 0.9% 555.56 shares
- Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22?No 39% 25.64 shares
- Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?No 18% 111.26 shares
- Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15?Yes 62% 48.39 shares
- Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Yes 67% 29.85 shares