Polymarket Trader

Aronovici

0x8c476e83f4966d3c4ffbfba6b9266193963cfd8e

Public profile Partial data Delayed section

Open value: $255.52
Realized PnL: $1.24
Win rate: 100%
Open positions: 18
Closed positions: 1
Markets traded: Unavailable

Current Predictions

Open positions

Yes position

Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $1.67K
Potential profit: $1.67K
User PnL: -$5

Yes position

Netanyahu out by June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $952.38
Potential profit: $952.38
User PnL: -$20

Yes position

Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 39.5%
Current value: $243.97
Potential payout: $617.65
Potential profit: $373.68
Multiplier: 2.53x
User PnL: $33.97

Yes position

Will the US officially declare war on Iran before July?

Ends Jun 30, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $536.84
Potential profit: $536.84
User PnL: -$10

Yes position

Iran coup attempt by June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $476.36
Potential profit: $476.36
User PnL: -$5

Yes position

Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president before July?

Ends Jun 30, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $416.67
Potential profit: $416.67
User PnL: -$100

Yes position

Will Israel withdraw from Philadelphi corridor by March 8?

Ends Mar 8, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $370.68
Potential profit: $370.68
User PnL: -$25

Yes position

Netanyahu drops out of Israel election by July 31?

Ends Jul 31, 2026

Implied probability: 1.8%
Current value: $2.92
Potential payout: $166.67
Potential profit: $163.75
Multiplier: 57.14x
User PnL: -$7.08

Yes position

Will Israel declare war on Iran by Friday?

Ends Jun 20, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $142.86
Potential profit: $142.86
User PnL: -$10

Yes position

Israel closes its airspace by May 24?

Ends May 24, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $71.43
Potential profit: $71.43
User PnL: -$10

Yes position

Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?

Ends Oct 10, 2026

Implied probability: 6.5%
Current value: $3.61
Potential payout: $55.56
Potential profit: $51.94
Multiplier: 15.38x
User PnL: -$1.39

Yes position

Israel and Saudi Arabia normalize relations in 2025?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $53.19
Potential profit: $53.19
User PnL: -$25

Yes position

Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?

Ends Oct 10, 2026

Implied probability: 8.4%
Current value: $3.98
Potential payout: $47.62
Potential profit: $43.64
Multiplier: 11.98x
User PnL: -$1.02

Yes position

Will Zelenskyy apologize to Trump by Sunday?

Ends Mar 2, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $45.45
Potential profit: $45.45
User PnL: -$5

Yes position

Trump ends Ukraine war in first 90 days?

Ends Apr 20, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $45.45
Potential profit: $45.45
User PnL: -$10

Yes position

Israel closes its airspace by June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $19.02
Potential profit: $19.02
User PnL: -$10

No position

Israel x Iran ceasefire before July?

Ends Jun 30, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $11.63
Potential profit: $11.63
User PnL: -$10

Anthropic position

Will Anthropic or OpenAI IPO first?

Ends Dec 31, 2027

Implied probability: 83.5%
Current value: $1.04
Potential payout: $1.25
Potential profit: $0.21
Multiplier: 1.20x
User PnL: $0.04

Resolved Context

Closed positions

No position

Iran x Israel conflict ends by Friday?

Ends Jun 20, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.24

Trades

Recent trades

Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.

Iran coup attempt by June 30?

Yes 1% 476.36 shares
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?

Yes 0.3% 1,666.67 shares
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?

Yes 9% 55.56 shares
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?

Yes 10.5% 47.62 shares
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?

Yes 34% 617.65 shares
Netanyahu drops out of Israel election by July 31?

Yes 6% 166.67 shares
Netanyahu out by June 30?

Yes 2.1% 952.38 shares
Will Anthropic or OpenAI IPO first?

Anthropic 80% 1.25 shares
Israel closes its airspace by June 30?

Yes 52.6% 19.02 shares
Israel closes its airspace by May 24?

Yes 14% 71.43 shares
Iran x Israel conflict ends by Friday?

No 89% 11.24 shares
Will Israel declare war on Iran by Friday?

Yes 7% 142.86 shares