0x8c55...c04b

Implied probability: 98.9%
Current value: $402.65
Potential payout: $407.33
Potential profit: $4.68
Multiplier: 1.01x
User PnL: $2.65

No position

Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $6,000 (LOW) in June?

Implied probability: 99.9%
Current value: $109.51
Potential payout: $109.68
Potential profit: $0.16
User PnL: $9.51

No position

Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Implied probability: 96.4%
Current value: $98.92
Potential payout: $102.67
Potential profit: $3.75
Multiplier: 1.04x
User PnL: -$1.08

No position

Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026?

Implied probability: 95.7%
Current value: $67.69
Potential payout: $70.76
Potential profit: $3.08
Multiplier: 1.05x
User PnL: $2.69

No position

Katy Perry confirmed pregnant by June 30?

Implied probability: 98%
Current value: $35.01
Potential payout: $35.73
Potential profit: $0.71
Multiplier: 1.02x
User PnL: $0.01

Yes position

Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

Ends Oct 4, 2026

Implied probability: 56.5%
Current value: $14.87
Potential payout: $26.32
Potential profit: $11.45
Multiplier: 1.77x
User PnL: $4.87

No position

Will Trump resign by December 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 94.5%
Current value: $24.87
Potential payout: $26.32
Potential profit: $1.45
Multiplier: 1.06x
User PnL: -$0.13

No position

Will GameStop acquire eBay?

Implied probability: 86.5%
Current value: $20.6
Potential payout: $23.81
Potential profit: $3.21
Multiplier: 1.16x
User PnL: $0.6

Yes position

Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

Ends Oct 4, 2026

Implied probability: 22.8%
Current value: $5.07
Potential payout: $22.27
Potential profit: $17.2
Multiplier: 4.40x
User PnL: -$4.93

No position

Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting?

Ends Jun 17, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $20
Potential profit: $20
User PnL: -$1

No position

Will Cape Verde win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jun 27, 2026

Implied probability: 96.3%
Current value: $14.91
Potential payout: $15.49
Potential profit: $0.57
Multiplier: 1.04x
User PnL: -$0.09

Anthropic position

Anthropic vs OpenAI - higher valuation on December 31?

Ends Jan 1, 2027

Implied probability: 78.5%
Current value: $9.57
Potential payout: $12.2
Potential profit: $2.62
Multiplier: 1.27x
User PnL: -$0.43

No position

Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?

Implied probability: 58.9%
Current value: $6.66
Potential payout: $11.31
Potential profit: $4.66
Multiplier: 1.70x
User PnL: -$3.34

No position

Another Elon baby by June 30?

Implied probability: 98.9%
Current value: $10.98
Potential payout: $11.11
Potential profit: $0.13
Multiplier: 1.01x
User PnL: $0.98

No position

Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 by December 31, 2026?

Ends Jan 1, 2027

Implied probability: 90.5%
Current value: $10.06
Potential payout: $11.11
Potential profit: $1.06
Multiplier: 1.10x
User PnL: $0.06

No position

Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?

Implied probability: 90.5%
Current value: $9.95
Potential payout: $10.99
Potential profit: $1.04
Multiplier: 1.10x
User PnL: -$0.05

No position

Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Implied probability: 92%
Current value: $9.99
Potential payout: $10.87
Potential profit: $0.88
Multiplier: 1.09x
User PnL: -$0.01

No position

Will Jordan win on 2026-06-27?

Ends Jun 28, 2026

Implied probability: 94.9%
Current value: $10.02
Potential payout: $10.56
Potential profit: $0.54
Multiplier: 1.05x
User PnL: $0.02

No position

Zendaya confirmed pregnant by June 30?

Implied probability: 99.7%
Current value: $10.49
Potential payout: $10.53
Potential profit: $0.04
User PnL: $0.49

No position

Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?

Implied probability: 100%
Current value: $10.22
Potential payout: $10.22
Potential profit: $0.01
User PnL: $0.22

Yes position

Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jun 27, 2026

Implied probability: 81.5%
Current value: $5.16
Potential payout: $6.33
Potential profit: $1.17
Multiplier: 1.23x
User PnL: $0.16

No position

Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Implied probability: 85.4%
Current value: $4.97
Potential payout: $5.82
Potential profit: $0.85
Multiplier: 1.17x
User PnL: -$0.03

No position

Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?

Implied probability: 99.9%
Current value: $5.37
Potential payout: $5.38
Potential profit: $0.01
User PnL: $0.37

No position

Will Deniz Undav be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Implied probability: 99.1%
Current value: $5.17
Potential payout: $5.21
Potential profit: $0.05
User PnL: $0.17

Resolved Context

Closed positions

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - January 15, 8PM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $685.62

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - January 15, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $627.37

Down position

Ethereum Up or Down - January 15, 8PM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $578.25

Down position

Solana Up or Down - January 11, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET

Ends Jan 11, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $566.01

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - January 18, 12PM ET

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $553.25

Down position

Ethereum Up or Down - January 18, 9AM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $534.55

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - January 18, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $517.55

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - January 15, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $506.25

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - January 15, 9PM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $502.52

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - January 15, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $465.11

Down position

Ethereum Up or Down - January 18, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $398.17

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - January 15, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $377.47

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - January 18, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $344.6

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - January 15, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $339.11

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - January 18, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $320.84

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - January 15, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $311.16

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - January 15, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $272.83

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - January 18, 3PM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $267.3

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - January 18, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $266.51

Down position

Solana Up or Down - January 15, 8PM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $241.95

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - January 18, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $240.6

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - January 18, 1PM ET

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $232.78

Up position

Ethereum Up or Down - January 18, 2PM ET

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $230.25

Down position

XRP Up or Down - January 18, 9AM ET