0x8CC1262CF53b83047926e09af8E5Ab3Bf537B9F8-1774929892987

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $4.3K
Potential profit: $4.3K
User PnL: -$59.88

Yes position

Will Gemini 3.2 not be released by May 31?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $2K
Potential profit: $2K
User PnL: -$5.59

Yes position

Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on June 9?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $1.14K
Potential profit: $1.14K
User PnL: -$79.15

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C or higher on June 10?

Ends Jun 10, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $1.12K
Potential profit: $1.12K
User PnL: -$2.11

Yes position

Will Gemini 3.2 be released on May 26?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $1.03K
Potential profit: $1.03K
User PnL: -$1.03

Yes position

Will Gemini 3.2 be released on May 24?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $1.01K
Potential profit: $1.01K
User PnL: -$1.01

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 19°C on May 22?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $1.01K
Potential profit: $1.01K
User PnL: -$1.6

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on May 28?

Ends May 28, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $1K
Potential profit: $1K
User PnL: -$2.5

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 19°C on May 24?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $1K
Potential profit: $1K
User PnL: -$2

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on May 24?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $1K
Potential profit: $1K
User PnL: -$1

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 23°C on May 19?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $1K
Potential profit: $1K
User PnL: -$2

Yes position

Will Gemini 3.2 be released on May 31?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $999.99
Potential profit: $999.99
User PnL: -$1

Yes position

Will Gemini 3.2 be released on May 30?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $999.99
Potential profit: $999.99
User PnL: -$1

Yes position

Will Gemini 3.2 be released on May 29?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $999.99
Potential profit: $999.99
User PnL: -$1

Yes position

Will Gemini 3.2 be released on May 25?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $999.99
Potential profit: $999.99
User PnL: -$1

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 21°C on May 24?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $839.62
Potential profit: $839.62
User PnL: -$6.71

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on May 24?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $800
Potential profit: $800
User PnL: -$13.8

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 4?

Ends Jun 4, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $761.36
Potential profit: $761.36
User PnL: -$3.44

Yes position

Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 23°C on June 9?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $717.82
Potential profit: $717.82
User PnL: -$7.03

Yes position

Will Hong Kong have 240mm or more of precipitation in May?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $674.73
Potential profit: $674.73
User PnL: -$6.72

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 20°C on May 22?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $624.8
Potential profit: $624.8
User PnL: -$2.62

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 18°C on May 23?

Ends May 23, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $599.99
Potential profit: $599.99
User PnL: -$2.4

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 19°C on May 23?

Ends May 23, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $599.99
Potential profit: $599.99
User PnL: -$6.6

Yes position

Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 14°C on June 7?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $563
Potential profit: $563
User PnL: -$0.56

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 21°C on May 22?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $536.89
Potential profit: $536.89
User PnL: -$3.13

Yes position

Will Gemini 3.2 be released on May 23?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $502.44
Potential profit: $502.44
User PnL: -$0.5

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 17°C on May 21?

Ends May 21, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $502.31
Potential profit: $502.31
User PnL: -$6.54

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on May 19?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $500.8
Potential profit: $500.8
User PnL: -$5.64

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on May 25?

Ends May 25, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $500
Potential profit: $500
User PnL: -$1

Yes position

Will Gemini 3.2 be released on May 27?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $500
Potential profit: $500
User PnL: -$1

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C or higher on June 9?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $500
Potential profit: $500
User PnL: -$1.5

Yes position

Will Gemini 3.2 be released on May 28?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $500
Potential profit: $500
User PnL: -$1

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on May 15?

Ends May 15, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $500
Potential profit: $500
User PnL: -$1

Yes position

Will Gemini 3.2 be released on May 22?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $500
Potential profit: $500
User PnL: -$0.5

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C or higher on May 19?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $500
Potential profit: $500
User PnL: -$5.5

Yes position

Will Gemini 3.2 be released on May 21?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $500
Potential profit: $500
User PnL: -$1.5

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on May 24?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $499.99
Potential profit: $499.99
User PnL: -$20.2

Yes position

Will Gemini 3.2 be released on May 18?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $499.99
Potential profit: $499.99
User PnL: -$1.5

Yes position

Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on June 16?

Ends Jun 16, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $485.72
Potential profit: $485.72
User PnL: -$0.49

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on May 24?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $467.68
Potential profit: $467.68
User PnL: -$4.21

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on May 30?

Ends May 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $453.8
Potential profit: $453.8
User PnL: -$1.15

Yes position

Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 13°C or below on June 7?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $443.89
Potential profit: $443.89
User PnL: -$0.44

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on May 22?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $436.78
Potential profit: $436.78
User PnL: -$7.94

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 35°C on June 6?

Ends Jun 6, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $412.46
Potential profit: $412.46
User PnL: -$0.82

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 20°C on May 24?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $400.34
Potential profit: $400.34
User PnL: -$1.2

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on May 18?

Ends May 18, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $390.66
Potential profit: $390.66
User PnL: -$15.59

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 7?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $385.17
Potential profit: $385.17
User PnL: -$10.4

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on May 18?

Ends May 18, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $349.71
Potential profit: $349.71
User PnL: -$15.28

Yes position

Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 19°C on June 14?

Ends Jun 14, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $333.04
Potential profit: $333.04
User PnL: -$1.33

Yes position

Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 14°C or below on June 4?

Ends Jun 4, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $318.35
Potential profit: $318.35
User PnL: -$1.91

Resolved Context

Closed positions

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 22°C or below on May 19?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $997.99

Yes position

Will Hong Kong have between 220-230mm of precipitation in May?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $522.61

No position

Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 13?

Ends Jun 13, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $314.07

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on April 15?

Ends Apr 15, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $300.54

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on April 28?

Ends Apr 28, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $298.45

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on May 16?

Ends May 16, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $235.51

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 10?

Ends Jun 10, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $220.14

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on May 31?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $215.69

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 23°C on May 5?

Ends May 5, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $212.91

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on May 23?

Ends May 23, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $207.43

Yes position

Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 18°C on June 4?

Ends Jun 4, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $198.3

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on April 27?

Ends Apr 27, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $191.22

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 15?

Ends Jun 15, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $181.98

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 9?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $177.99

Yes position

Will there be exactly 1 earthquake of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from June 1 - 7?

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $173.8

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on May 17?

Ends May 17, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $163.37

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 11?

Ends Jun 11, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $162.39

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on May 10?

Ends May 10, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $162.3

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on May 30?

Ends May 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $160.47

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on May 15?

Ends May 15, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $149.39

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on May 6?

Ends May 6, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $140.41

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on April 11?

Ends Apr 11, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $138.99

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET

Ends Apr 17, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $129.98

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on May 1?

Ends May 1, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $123.99

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 13?

Ends Jun 13, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $116.81

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on May 8?

Ends May 8, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $108.76

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on May 2?

Ends May 2, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $107.12

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 18?

Ends Jun 18, 2026

Implied probability: 98.7%
Multiplier: 1.01x
User PnL: $103.59

No position

Will there be 5 or fewer earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from June 1 - 7?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $100.66

Yes position

Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 3?

Ends Jun 3, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $91.18

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 8?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $86.43

No position

Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 11?

Ends Jun 11, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $83.67

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 8?

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $83.6

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 17?

Ends Jun 17, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $81.76

Yes position

Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on June 13?

Ends Jun 13, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $74.25

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on April 25?

Ends Apr 25, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $70.86

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on May 2?

Ends May 2, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $66.27

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on May 13?

Ends May 13, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $66.09

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 6?

Ends Jun 6, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $62.23

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on May 6?

Ends May 6, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $59.89

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on April 12?

Ends Apr 12, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $53

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on May 22?

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $51.94

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 8?

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $51.45

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 7?