Polymarket Trader

TheFlibustier

0x8d71ffbf1998362c60b49c709082f477bee18ce9

Public profile Partial data Delayed section

Open value: $154.84
Realized PnL: -$41.87
Win rate: 38.5%
Open positions: 16
Closed positions: 13
Markets traded: Unavailable

Current Predictions

Open positions

No position

TikTok banned in the US before May 2025?

Ends Apr 30, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $520.31
Potential profit: $520.31
User PnL: -$97.54

Yes position

Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election?

Ends Apr 30, 2027

Implied probability: 12.3%
Current value: $49.69
Potential payout: $405.61
Potential profit: $355.92
Multiplier: 8.16x
User PnL: -$0.31

Yes position

Will Yoon leave South Korea before March?

Ends Feb 28, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $338.54
Potential profit: $338.54
User PnL: -$10.5

Yes position

Will Marine Le Pen be the National Rally’s candidate for the 2027 French Presidential election?

Ends Apr 23, 2027

Implied probability: 27%
Current value: $27
Potential payout: $100
Potential profit: $73
Multiplier: 3.70x
User PnL: -$3

Yes position

Will the AfD win 25-30% of the vote in the German election?

Ends Feb 23, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $98.28
Potential profit: $98.28
User PnL: -$10

Yes position

Will Marine Le Pen win her appeal to lift ineligibility ban in 2026?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 97.1%
Current value: $78.16
Potential payout: $80.53
Potential profit: $2.38
Multiplier: 1.03x
User PnL: $57.75

No position

RFK Jr. confirmed as Health & Human Services Secretary?

Ends Jun 30, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $72.12
Potential profit: $72.12
User PnL: -$18.75

No position

Will another candidate win the 2024 Romanian Presidential election?

Ends Dec 8, 2024

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $71.43
Potential profit: $71.43
User PnL: -$30

No position

TikTok removed from App Store by Monday?

Ends Jan 20, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $46.88
Potential profit: $46.88
User PnL: -$15

Yes position

Yoon out as president of South Korea before April?

Ends Mar 31, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $43.55
Potential profit: $43.55
User PnL: -$30

Yes position

Will George Simion win the Romanian presidential election?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $28.3
Potential profit: $28.3
User PnL: -$15

Yes position

Will the AfD win over 30% of the vote in the German election?

Ends Feb 23, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $25.64
Potential profit: $25.64
User PnL: -$1

Yes position

Will AfD win the most seats in the next German election?

Ends Feb 23, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $20.01
Potential profit: $20.01
User PnL: -$1.78

No position

Israel x Hamas ceasefire by January 31?

Ends Jan 31, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $18.89
Potential profit: $18.89
User PnL: -$3.4

Yes position

Will Elena Lasconi win the 2024 Romanian Presidential election?

Ends Dec 8, 2024

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $18.21
Potential profit: $18.21
User PnL: -$10

Yes position

Trump nominates Elon Musk to Cabinet?

Ends Jan 31, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $1
Potential profit: $1
User PnL: -$0.1

Resolved Context

Closed positions

No position

Israel x Hamas ceasefire in 2024?

Ends Dec 31, 2024

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $18.6

Yes position

Will Elon Musk buy TikTok before April?

Ends Mar 31, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $16.96

Yes position

Will Bitcoin dip to $90,000 by January 31, 2025?

Ends Jan 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $14.21

No position

Trump ends Ukraine war in first 90 days?

Ends Apr 20, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $3.07

Yes position

Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $2.16

Yes position

Trump nominates RFK Jr. to Cabinet?

Ends Jan 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: -$0.06

No position

Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in November?

Ends Nov 30, 2024

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$1.83

Yes position

Macron out as president of France in 2024?

Ends Dec 31, 2024

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$4.08

Yes position

Will Mike Tyson win his boxing match against Jake Paul?

Ends Jul 20, 2024

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$5

Yes position

Will Jake Paul vs. Mike Tyson have no official winner?

Ends Jul 20, 2024

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$15.91

No position

Will Bitcoin hit $100k in 2024?

Ends Dec 30, 2024

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$20

No position

Will Joe pardon Hunter Biden?

Ends Jan 20, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$20

No position

Will Jake Paul win his boxing match against Mike Tyson?

Ends Jul 20, 2024

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$30

Trades

Recent trades

Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.

Will Marine Le Pen be the National Rally’s candidate for the 2027 French Presidential election?

Yes 30% 100 shares
Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election?

Yes 12.3% 405.61 shares
Will Marine Le Pen win her appeal to lift ineligibility ban in 2026?

Yes 93.6% 77.36 shares
Will Marine Le Pen win her appeal to lift ineligibility ban in 2026?

Yes 25.3% 157.89 shares
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?

Yes 76% 9 shares
Will George Simion win the Romanian presidential election?

Yes 53% 28.3 shares
Will the AfD win over 30% of the vote in the German election?

Yes 3.9% 25.64 shares
Will AfD win the most seats in the next German election?

Yes 7.9% 204.71 shares
RFK Jr. confirmed as Health & Human Services Secretary?

No 26% 72.12 shares
Will Elon Musk buy TikTok before April?

Yes 15% 125 shares
TikTok banned in the US before May 2025?

No 20.6% 267.45 shares
TikTok removed from App Store by Monday?

No 32% 46.88 shares