Yes position
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 29.5%
- Current value
- $814.4
- Potential payout
- $2.76K
- Potential profit
- $1.95K
- Multiplier
- 3.39x
- User PnL
- -$185.6
Polymarket Trader
Argentflight
0x8e371295d2cd12a6a55ba8d997fe1db3b5f4ff97
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $814.4
- Realized PnL
- $2.15K
- Win rate
- 100%
- Open positions
- 7
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
No position
US x Iran ceasefire by April 15?
Ends Apr 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $549.45
- Potential profit
- $549.45
- User PnL
- -$500
No position
Will Russia capture all of Pokrovsk by February 28?
Ends Sep 30, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $329.67
- Potential profit
- $329.67
- User PnL
- -$300
No position
Will Hamas release all Israeli hostages by October 13?
Ends Oct 13, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $166.67
- Potential profit
- $166.67
- User PnL
- -$5
Yes position
Will Israel annex any territory by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $70
- Potential profit
- $70
- User PnL
- -$3.15
Yes position
NATO x Russia military clash in 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $64.29
- Potential profit
- $64.29
- User PnL
- -$9
No position
More EU sanctions on Russia by October 31?
Ends Sep 30, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $61.04
- Potential profit
- $61.04
- User PnL
- -$15
Resolved Context
Closed positions
Yes position
Will Russia capture Siversk by December 31?
Ends Sep 30, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $303.68
Yes position
Will Russia capture all of Pokrovsk by March 31?
Ends Sep 30, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $279.31
Yes position
Will US or Israel strike Iran by January 31, 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $262.33
Yes position
US strikes Iran by March 7, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $233.93
No position
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $200
No position
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $183.14
No position
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $113.36
No position
Will Russia capture all of Myrnohrad by January 15?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $105.04
No position
Will Israel launch a ground operation in Iran by April 30, 2026?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $102.02
Yes position
US strikes Iraq by February 28?
Ends Feb 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $64.65
No position
US-Iran nuclear deal in 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $62.79
No position
Odds of Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31 over 50% by January 16?
Ends Jan 16, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $57.69
No position
France, UK, or Germany military action against Iran by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $35.44
No position
Will France, UK or Germany strike Iran by January 31?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $34.18
No position
Israel strikes Iran by January 9, 2026?
Ends Jan 9, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $32.39
No position
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by February 28?
Ends Feb 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $12.8
No position
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 7th?
Ends Apr 7, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $12.05
No position
US strikes Iran by February 7, 2026?
Ends Feb 7, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $10.42
Yes position
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election?
Ends Nov 4, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $9.52
No position
Will China invade Taiwan in 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $8.49
No position
Will Russia capture all of Myrnohrad by November 30?
Ends Nov 30, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $6.99
No position
Xi Jinping out in 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $6.84
Yes position
Will Russia capture Kupiansk by December 31?
Ends Aug 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $5.56
No position
Houthi strike on Israel by October 15?
Ends Sep 30, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $5.14
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?No 82% 602.4 shares
- Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 7th?No 97.6% 512.05 shares
- US x Iran ceasefire by April 15?No 91% 549.45 shares
- Will Israel launch a ground operation in Iran by April 30, 2026?No 80.1% 499.36 shares
- Will Israel launch a ground operation in Iran by April 30, 2026?No 79% 12.66 shares
- Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?Yes 36.2% 2,760.67 shares
- Will the U.S. invade Iran by March 31?No 88.2% 431.66 shares
- Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?No 0.2% 1,791.26 shares
- US strikes Iraq by February 28?Yes 60% 166.67 shares
- US strikes Iraq by February 28?Yes 60% 166.67 shares
- US strikes Iraq by February 28?Yes 67.9% 147.29 shares
- US strikes Iraq by February 28?Yes 67.9% 147.28 shares