No position
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 87.5%
- Current value
- $26.44K
- Potential payout
- $30.22K
- Potential profit
- $3.78K
- Multiplier
- 1.14x
- User PnL
- $5K
Polymarket Trader
dwpoker
@dw8998
0x8e77537e059837d3c2ca5b4efe75e74e9498c4f3
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $143.64K
- Realized PnL
- $79.66K
- Win rate
- 100%
- Open positions
- 24
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
No position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 81.5%
- Current value
- $24.45K
- Potential payout
- $30K
- Potential profit
- $5.55K
- Multiplier
- 1.23x
- User PnL
- $4.84K
No position
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.1%
- Current value
- $19.81K
- Potential payout
- $20K
- Potential profit
- $190
- User PnL
- $1.84K
No position
Iran leadership change by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 98.7%
- Current value
- $14.9K
- Potential payout
- $15.1K
- Potential profit
- $203.85
- Multiplier
- 1.01x
- User PnL
- $2.31K
No position
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $15K
- Potential profit
- $15K
- User PnL
- -$13.35K
No position
US x Iran ceasefire by April 15?
Ends Apr 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $15K
- Potential profit
- $15K
- User PnL
- -$11.95K
Yes position
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 68.8%
- Current value
- $8.91K
- Potential payout
- $12.96K
- Potential profit
- $4.05K
- Multiplier
- 1.45x
- User PnL
- $2.23K
No position
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $12.5K
- Potential profit
- $12.5K
- User PnL
- -$11.72K
No position
Will GameStop acquire eBay?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 83.5%
- Current value
- $8.35K
- Potential payout
- $10K
- Potential profit
- $1.65K
- Multiplier
- 1.20x
- User PnL
- -$150
No position
US strikes Iran by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $10K
- Potential profit
- $10K
- User PnL
- -$4.73K
No position
US x Iran ceasefire by April 30?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $10K
- Potential profit
- $10K
- User PnL
- -$7.5K
No position
Netanyahu out by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.4%
- Current value
- $9.94K
- Potential payout
- $10K
- Potential profit
- $60
- User PnL
- $1.29K
No position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.1%
- Current value
- $5
- Potential payout
- $10K
- Potential profit
- $9.99K
- Multiplier
- 2000.00x
- User PnL
- -$6.64K
No position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?
Ends Jun 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.2%
- Current value
- $15
- Potential payout
- $10K
- Potential profit
- $9.98K
- Multiplier
- 666.67x
- User PnL
- -$8.18K
No position
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $10K
- Potential profit
- $10K
- User PnL
- -$6.62K
No position
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.5%
- Current value
- $9.79K
- Potential payout
- $9.84K
- Potential profit
- $54.13
- User PnL
- $1.15K
No position
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 90.5%
- Current value
- $6.79K
- Potential payout
- $7.5K
- Potential profit
- $712.5
- Multiplier
- 1.10x
- User PnL
- $587.5
No position
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $7.15K
- Potential profit
- $7.15K
- User PnL
- -$5.12K
No position
Israel strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?
Ends Feb 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $5.14K
- Potential profit
- $5.14K
- User PnL
- -$3.49K
No position
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.1%
- Current value
- $4.96K
- Potential payout
- $5K
- Potential profit
- $45
- User PnL
- $655.05
No position
US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $5K
- Potential profit
- $5K
- User PnL
- -$2.83K
No position
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of June?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.3%
- Current value
- $4.97K
- Potential payout
- $5K
- Potential profit
- $35
- User PnL
- $1.31K
No position
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 86.5%
- Current value
- $4.33K
- Potential payout
- $5K
- Potential profit
- $675
- Multiplier
- 1.16x
- User PnL
- $675
No position
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in February?
Ends Mar 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $5K
- Potential profit
- $5K
- User PnL
- -$4.5K
Resolved Context
Closed positions
No position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $9.99K
No position
US forces enter Iran by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $5K
Yes position
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $4.98K
No position
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2025?
Ends Jan 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $4.95K
No position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $4.78K
No position
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $4.23K
Yes position
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$1B one day after launch?
Ends Jan 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $4.11K
Yes position
Will lighter perform an airdrop by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $3.08K
No position
US strikes Iran by February 13, 2026?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $3.05K
No position
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.77K
No position
Ethereum all time high by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jul 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.7%
- User PnL
- $2.76K
No position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026?
Ends Apr 22, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.75K
No position
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.58K
No position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.53K
No position
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of March?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.33K
No position
Iran leadership change by April 30?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.31K
No position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?
Ends May 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.3K
No position
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$6B one day after launch?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.29K
No position
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by March 31st?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.28K
No position
Will another country conduct military action against Iran by April 30, 2026?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.22K
No position
Will Dogecoin reach $0.20 in November?
Ends Dec 1, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.15K
No position
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 by December 31, 2025?
Ends Jan 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.14K
No position
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.08K
No position
Iran leadership change by May 31?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.01K
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Trump renames Strait of Hormuz to "Strait of Trump" by May 31?No 99.5% 2,499.99 shares
- Netanyahu out by May 31?No 99.6% 604.27 shares
- Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by May 31?No 99.7% 4,999.98 shares
- Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?No 99.7% 24,999.99 shares
- Iran closes its airspace by May 24?Yes 0.5% 29,999.91 shares
- Iran closes its airspace by May 31?Yes 21.1% 9,999 shares
- Iran closes its airspace by May 27?Yes 12.1% 9,998.99 shares
- Iran closes its airspace by June 30?No 1.8% 2,500 shares
- Iran closes its airspace by June 15?No 1.5% 2,500 shares
- Iran closes its airspace by May 31?No 2% 4,999.98 shares
- Iran closes its airspace by May 27?No 2.4% 4,999.97 shares
- Iran closes its airspace by May 24?No 2.8% 4,727.35 shares