No position
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 91.5%
- Current value
- $10.28
- Potential payout
- $11.24
- Potential profit
- $0.96
- Multiplier
- 1.09x
- User PnL
- $0.28
Polymarket Trader
dis0rdered
0x8eb2df7e7b89d594e0af2d05c3c79e0b79777ab1
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $55.7
- Realized PnL
- $46.22
- Win rate
- 100%
- Open positions
- 19
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
No position
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.7%
- Current value
- $6.68
- Potential payout
- $6.7
- Potential profit
- $0.02
- User PnL
- $0.16
N
No position
Will the announcers say "Comeback” or “Come Back" during the Ecuador vs Germany FIFA World Cup Match?
Ends Jun 25, 2026- Implied probability
- 14.5%
- Current value
- $0.73
- Potential payout
- $5
- Potential profit
- $4.28
- Multiplier
- 6.90x
- User PnL
- -$0.73
Yes position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 43.5%
- Current value
- $2.18
- Potential payout
- $5
- Potential profit
- $2.83
- Multiplier
- 2.30x
- User PnL
- $0.22
Yes position
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
Ends Oct 4, 2026- Implied probability
- 23.2%
- Current value
- $1.16
- Potential payout
- $5
- Potential profit
- $3.84
- Multiplier
- 4.32x
- User PnL
- -$1.02
N
No position
Will the announcers say "Messi" during the Czechia vs Mexico FIFA World Cup Match?
Ends Jun 25, 2026- Implied probability
- 38%
- Current value
- $1.9
- Potential payout
- $5
- Potential profit
- $3.1
- Multiplier
- 2.63x
- User PnL
- $0.5
No position
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?
Ends Dec 6, 2026- Implied probability
- 41.2%
- Current value
- $2.06
- Potential payout
- $5
- Potential profit
- $2.94
- Multiplier
- 2.43x
- User PnL
- -$0.19
Yes position
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?
Ends Sep 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 30.1%
- Current value
- $1.5
- Potential payout
- $5
- Potential profit
- $3.5
- Multiplier
- 3.33x
- User PnL
- -$0.02
Yes position
Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?
Ends Jun 2, 2026- Implied probability
- 62.5%
- Current value
- $3.13
- Potential payout
- $5
- Potential profit
- $1.88
- Multiplier
- 1.60x
- User PnL
- -$0.32
No position
Will Charles Leclerc win the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Prix?
Ends Jul 5, 2026- Implied probability
- 89.5%
- Current value
- $4.48
- Potential payout
- $5
- Potential profit
- $0.53
- Multiplier
- 1.12x
- User PnL
- $0.13
Yes position
Will the S&P 500 have the best performance in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 53%
- Current value
- $2.65
- Potential payout
- $5
- Potential profit
- $2.35
- Multiplier
- 1.89x
- User PnL
- $1
Yes position
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $7,700 (HIGH) in June?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 3.1%
- Current value
- $0.16
- Potential payout
- $5
- Potential profit
- $4.85
- Multiplier
- 32.26x
- User PnL
- -$0.99
No position
Will the Communist Party of the Russian Federation (KPRF) win the second-most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?
Ends Sep 20, 2026- Implied probability
- 33.5%
- Current value
- $1.68
- Potential payout
- $5
- Potential profit
- $3.33
- Multiplier
- 2.99x
- User PnL
- -$1.13
Yes position
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?
Ends Jun 7, 2026- Implied probability
- 98.8%
- Current value
- $4.94
- Potential payout
- $5
- Potential profit
- $0.06
- Multiplier
- 1.01x
- User PnL
- $1.64
No position
Netanyahu out by end of 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 51.5%
- Current value
- $2.58
- Potential payout
- $5
- Potential profit
- $2.43
- Multiplier
- 1.94x
- User PnL
- $0.18
No position
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026?
Ends Jun 26, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.7%
- Current value
- $4.98
- Potential payout
- $5
- Potential profit
- $0.02
- User PnL
- $1.43
No position
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 15, 2026?
Ends Jun 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $5
- Potential profit
- $5
- User PnL
- -$3.5
No position
Will Zelenskyy and Putin not meet before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 19.5%
- Current value
- $0.98
- Potential payout
- $5
- Potential profit
- $4.03
- Multiplier
- 5.13x
- User PnL
- -$0.03
Yes position
Will 2026 be the second-hottest year on record?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 73.5%
- Current value
- $3.68
- Potential payout
- $5
- Potential profit
- $1.33
- Multiplier
- 1.36x
- User PnL
- $0.77
Resolved Context
Closed positions
No position
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 21, 2026?
Ends Apr 21, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $3.76
Up position
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET
Ends Apr 25, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $3.7
Down position
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET
Ends Apr 25, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $3.15
No position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.94
Yes position
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by May 31st?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.88
No position
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.83
Up position
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET
Ends Apr 25, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.6
Up position
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET
Ends Apr 25, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.6
Down position
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET
Ends Apr 25, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.5
Down position
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET
Ends Apr 25, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.3
Down position
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET
Ends Apr 25, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.25
No position
Will Finland win Eurovision 2026?
Ends May 16, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.7
No position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.5
Yes position
Will the Bank of Russia decrease the key rate after the July Meeting?
Ends Jul 24, 2026- Implied probability
- 80.5%
- Multiplier
- 1.24x
- User PnL
- $1.35
No position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026?
Ends Apr 22, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.33
No position
Will Charles Leclerc win the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix?
Ends Jun 14, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.25
No position
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026?
Ends May 12, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.2
Up position
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET
Ends Apr 26, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.15
Down position
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET
Ends Apr 25, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.08
No position
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026?
Ends May 8, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1
No position
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026?
Ends May 22, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.96
No position
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.8
No position
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 26?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.8
No position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?
Ends May 26, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.6
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Will the announcers say "Messi" during the Czechia vs Mexico FIFA World Cup Match?No 28% 5 shares
- Will the announcers say "Comeback” or “Come Back" during the Ecuador vs Germany FIFA World Cup Match?No 29% 5 shares
- Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026?No 71% 5 shares
- Will Zelenskyy and Putin not meet before 2027?No 20% 5 shares
- Will Charles Leclerc win the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Prix?No 87% 5 shares
- US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?No 23% 5 shares
- Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?No 63% 5 shares
- Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?No 85% 5 shares
- Will the Bank of Russia decrease the key rate after the June Meeting?Yes 88% 5 shares
- Will the Bank of Russia decrease the key rate after the July Meeting?Yes 77% 5 shares
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?Yes 39% 5 shares
- Will George Russell be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?No 72% 5 shares