No position
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $2.76K
- Potential profit
- $2.76K
- User PnL
- -$10
Polymarket Trader
PRISONER2277
0x8eb58d0d50c9f0921b549f924c16a11b2d6318e7
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $841.85
- Realized PnL
- $292.95
- Win rate
- 100%
- Open positions
- 24
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
No position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $556.78
- Potential profit
- $556.78
- User PnL
- -$276
No position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $285.11
- Potential profit
- $285.11
- User PnL
- -$80
Yes position
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $243.9
- Potential profit
- $243.9
- User PnL
- -$10
No position
Xi Jinping out before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 95%
- Current value
- $183.78
- Potential payout
- $193.56
- Potential profit
- $9.77
- Multiplier
- 1.05x
- User PnL
- $3.78
No position
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 87.5%
- Current value
- $168.51
- Potential payout
- $192.58
- Potential profit
- $24.07
- Multiplier
- 1.14x
- User PnL
- $28.51
Yes position
Will another country conduct military action against Iran by April 30, 2026?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $126.91
- Potential profit
- $126.91
- User PnL
- -$10
No position
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 83.5%
- Current value
- $88.16
- Potential payout
- $105.58
- Potential profit
- $17.42
- Multiplier
- 1.20x
- User PnL
- $28.16
Yes position
Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?
Ends Nov 3, 2026- Implied probability
- 44.5%
- Current value
- $41.98
- Potential payout
- $94.34
- Potential profit
- $52.36
- Multiplier
- 2.25x
- User PnL
- -$8.02
No position
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7?
Ends Apr 7, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $83.33
- Potential profit
- $83.33
- User PnL
- -$10
No position
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 87.5%
- Current value
- $70.96
- Potential payout
- $81.1
- Potential profit
- $10.14
- Multiplier
- 1.14x
- User PnL
- $10.96
No position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $78.9
- Potential profit
- $78.9
- User PnL
- -$40
Yes position
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?
Ends Nov 3, 2026- Implied probability
- 83.5%
- Current value
- $48.55
- Potential payout
- $58.14
- Potential profit
- $9.59
- Multiplier
- 1.20x
- User PnL
- -$1.45
No position
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?
Ends Oct 10, 2026- Implied probability
- 93.5%
- Current value
- $49.73
- Potential payout
- $53.19
- Potential profit
- $3.46
- Multiplier
- 1.07x
- User PnL
- -$0.27
Yes position
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 21st?
Ends Apr 21, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $52.63
- Potential profit
- $52.63
- User PnL
- -$10
No position
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 93.5%
- Current value
- $43.01
- Potential payout
- $46
- Potential profit
- $2.99
- Multiplier
- 1.07x
- User PnL
- $4.01
No position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by October 31, 2026?
Ends Oct 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $45.98
- Potential profit
- $45.98
- User PnL
- -$20
Yes position
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 82.8%
- Current value
- $37.55
- Potential payout
- $45.38
- Potential profit
- $7.83
- Multiplier
- 1.21x
- User PnL
- $7.55
No position
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 96.4%
- Current value
- $41.24
- Potential payout
- $42.8
- Potential profit
- $1.56
- Multiplier
- 1.04x
- User PnL
- $1.24
No position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 25.5%
- Current value
- $10.62
- Potential payout
- $41.67
- Potential profit
- $31.04
- Multiplier
- 3.92x
- User PnL
- $0.62
No position
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 94.5%
- Current value
- $37.63
- Potential payout
- $39.82
- Potential profit
- $2.19
- Multiplier
- 1.06x
- User PnL
- $2.14
No position
Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire extended by April 26, 2026?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $30.77
- Potential profit
- $30.77
- User PnL
- -$20
No position
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $27.03
- Potential profit
- $27.03
- User PnL
- -$20
No position
Will Hezbollah disarm by December 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 84%
- Current value
- $20.12
- Potential payout
- $23.95
- Potential profit
- $3.83
- Multiplier
- 1.19x
- User PnL
- $0.12
Resolved Context
Closed positions
No position
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in April?
Ends May 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $88.64
No position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $43.54
No position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $22.58
Yes position
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26?
Ends Jun 27, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $19.18
Yes position
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24?
Ends Jun 24, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $13.81
No position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?
Ends May 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $13.77
No position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?
Ends May 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $10.46
No position
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $10
No position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $7.3
No position
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in April?
Ends May 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $7.02
No position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026?
Ends Jun 7, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $6.39
No position
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $6.3
No position
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $5.04
No position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 13, 2026?
Ends May 13, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $4.55
No position
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 5, 2026?
Ends May 5, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $4.49
No position
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $4.24
No position
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $3.97
Yes position
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by June 30th?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $3.75
No position
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 29, 2026?
Ends Apr 29, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $3.49
Yes position
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by May 31st?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $3.33
No position
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 28, 2026?
Ends Apr 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $3.19
No position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 11, 2026?
Ends May 11, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.71
No position
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by April 30?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.7
No position
US x Iran peace deal before Trump visits China?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.47
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?No 84% 11.9 shares
- Xi Jinping out before 2027?No 93.7% 53.36 shares
- Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?No 88% 11.36 shares
- Will England win on 2026-06-27?Yes 83% 12.05 shares
- Will Spain win on 2026-06-26?Yes 61% 16.39 shares
- Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26?Yes 83% 12.05 shares
- Will Spain win on 2026-06-26?Yes 61% 32.79 shares
- Will Scotland win on 2026-06-24?No 91% 10.99 shares
- Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24?Yes 42% 23.81 shares
- Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arabia by June 30, 2026?No 99.7% 10.03 shares
- Xi Jinping out before 2027?No 93.4% 10.71 shares
- US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30?No 0.4% 2,760.18 shares