Polymarket Trader

Ordon

0x8ebfdc251c6c378d4a3a54a8f15cebfa4b9183ce

Public profile Partial data Delayed section

Open value: $116.01K
Realized PnL: $1.83M
Win rate: 100%
Open positions: 24
Closed positions: 24
Markets traded: Unavailable

Current Predictions

Open positions

Yes position

Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?

Ends Nov 7, 2028

Implied probability: 16.2%
Current value: $18.57K
Potential payout: $115K
Potential profit: $96.43K
Multiplier: 6.19x
User PnL: -$38.93K

No position

Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?

Ends Nov 7, 2028

Implied probability: 83.9%
Current value: $96.43K
Potential payout: $115K
Potential profit: $18.57K
Multiplier: 1.19x
User PnL: $38.93K

No position

US and Iran sign an agreement by July 31, 2026?

Ends Aug 1, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $15.99K
Potential profit: $15.99K
User PnL: -$15.99

Yes position

Will Discord have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0.1%
Current value: $5.7
Potential payout: $11.41K
Potential profit: $11.4K
Multiplier: 2000.00x
User PnL: -$5.93

No position

US and Iran sign an agreement by June 30, 2026?

Ends Jul 1, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $2.1K
Potential profit: $2.1K
User PnL: -$2.1

No position

Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0.2–0.3%?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 8.3%
Current value: $59.69
Potential payout: $719.15
Potential profit: $659.46
Multiplier: 12.05x
User PnL: -$30.52

No position

Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026?

Ends Jan 1, 2027

Implied probability: 93.1%
Current value: $494.22
Potential payout: $531.13
Potential profit: $36.91
Multiplier: 1.07x
User PnL: $1.34

Yes position

Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15?

Ends Jun 16, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $357.42
Potential profit: $357.42
User PnL: -$3.22

Yes position

Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 13.4%
Current value: $32.33
Potential payout: $242.16
Potential profit: $209.83
Multiplier: 7.49x
User PnL: -$2.66

Yes position

US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0.9%
Current value: $1.89
Potential payout: $210.09
Potential profit: $208.2
Multiplier: 111.11x
User PnL: -$5.03

Yes position

Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?

Ends Jun 15, 2026

Implied probability: 2.6%
Current value: $5.39
Potential payout: $207.35
Potential profit: $201.96
Multiplier: 38.46x
User PnL: -$2.9

Yes position

Will ECDSA.fail get at least 40% ahead of Google’s classified circuit by June 30, 2026?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
Current value: $199.9
Potential payout: $200
Potential profit: $0.1
User PnL: $1.9

Yes position

Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 3.6%
Current value: $3.69
Potential payout: $102.49
Potential profit: $98.8
Multiplier: 27.78x
User PnL: -$4.51

Yes position

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026?

Ends May 15, 2026

Implied probability: 2.9%
Current value: $2.94
Potential payout: $101.54
Potential profit: $98.6
Multiplier: 34.48x
User PnL: $1.94

Yes position

US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by July 31?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 3.5%
Current value: $3.45
Potential payout: $100
Potential profit: $96.55
Multiplier: 28.99x
User PnL: -$3.55

Yes position

Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30?

Ends Jul 1, 2026

Implied probability: 4.5%
Current value: $4.45
Potential payout: $100
Potential profit: $95.55
Multiplier: 22.47x
User PnL: -$9.05

Yes position

US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 13.5%
Current value: $7.52
Potential payout: $55.7
Potential profit: $48.18
Multiplier: 7.41x
User PnL: -$2.51

No position

Exact Score: Notts County FC 1 - 0 Salford City FC?

Ends May 25, 2026

Implied probability: 99.6%
Current value: $55.25
Potential payout: $55.5
Potential profit: $0.25
User PnL: -$0.19

Yes position

Exact Score: Notts County FC 3 - 0 Salford City FC?

Ends May 25, 2026

Implied probability: 99.6%
Current value: $55.25
Potential payout: $55.5
Potential profit: $0.25
User PnL: -$0.19

Yes position

US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13?

Ends Jun 13, 2026

Implied probability: 0.3%
Current value: $0.13
Potential payout: $50
Potential profit: $49.88
Multiplier: 400.00x
User PnL: -$1.48

No position

US strike on Cuba by December 31?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 46.5%
Current value: $23.25
Potential payout: $50
Potential profit: $26.75
Multiplier: 2.15x
User PnL: -$8.75

No position

Iran Nuke before 2027?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 92.5%
Current value: $46.23
Potential payout: $50
Potential profit: $3.77
Multiplier: 1.08x
User PnL: $1.73

Yes position

Will Kylian Mbappé win the Bronze Boot at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jul 20, 2026

Implied probability: 16%
Current value: $1.83
Potential payout: $11.42
Potential profit: $9.59
Multiplier: 6.25x
User PnL: $0.57

No position

Will Monero hit $1000 in 2026?

Ends Jan 1, 2027

Implied probability: 84%
Current value: $8.41
Potential payout: $10.01
Potential profit: $1.6
Multiplier: 1.19x
User PnL: $1.84

Resolved Context

Closed positions

Yes position

Will the US strike Syria next?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $429.85K

Yes position

Will the US next strike Iran before March 2026 (ET)?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $336.76K

Yes position

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $310.28K

Yes position

Is there more than 147341858 Troy Ounces of Gold in Fort Knox?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $138.82K

Yes position

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $112.9K

Yes position

Will the price of Bitcoin be between $101000 and $103000 on May 9?

Ends May 9, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $107.56K

Yes position

Will Kim Moon-soo be the People's Power Party candidate for president?

Ends Jun 3, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $87.64K

Yes position

Will the US strike Somalia next?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $79.26K

Yes position

Will the US strike Somalia next?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $76.38K

Yes position

Clavicular pregnancy in 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $34.21K

Yes position

Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire extended by April 26, 2026?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $20.7K

Yes position

Will Trump dance today?

Ends Apr 25, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $17.27K

Yes position

Will US GDP growth in Q2 2025 be between 3.0% and 3.5%?

Ends Jul 30, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $13.95K

Yes position

Will MrBeast's next video get between 35 and 40 million views on day 1?

Ends Jan 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $10.44K

Yes position

Will Scottie Scheffler win The 2025 PGA Championship?

Ends May 18, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $9.19K

Yes position

Will the price of Bitcoin be between $112K and $113K on August 21 at 4PM ET?

Ends Aug 21, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $7.2K

No position

MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?

Ends Jul 1, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $6.54K

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on July 10?

Ends Jul 10, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $5.61K

No position

Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 US Presidential Election?

Ends Nov 4, 2024

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $5.29K

Yes position

Will The Fate Of Ophelia by Taylor Swift be the Billboard #1 song for the week of January 17?

Ends Jan 13, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $5.08K

No position

Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $4.8K

Yes position

Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from December 12 to December 19, 2025?

Ends Dec 19, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $3.86K

Yes position

Will I'm The Problem by Morgan Wallen be the Billboard 200 #1 album for the week of January 17?

Ends Jan 13, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $3.83K

Yes position

Will Trump endorse Andrew Cuomo for NYC Mayor?

Ends Nov 3, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $3.75K

Trades

Recent trades

Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.

Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by June 30?

Yes 99.7% 555.5 shares
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?

Yes 99.7% 104,364.59 shares
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?

Yes 99.7% 64.28 shares
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?

Yes 99.7% 104,300.31 shares
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw?

No 89% 105 shares
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw?

No 90% 5 shares
Aguiard vs. Ellis: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5

Under 99.9% 164 shares
Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

No 88% 5 shares
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?

Yes 14.6% 232.16 shares
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?

Yes 4% 207.35 shares
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026?

Yes 1% 101.54 shares
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?

Yes 95.5% 5 shares