Yes position
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 9.5%
- Current value
- $33.93
- Potential payout
- $357.14
- Potential profit
- $323.21
- Multiplier
- 10.53x
- User PnL
- -$16.07
Polymarket Trader
0x8EC905daf91Cc118931d9c4E738C7f51570Ccf38-1773853963750
0x8ec905daf91cc118931d9c4e738c7f51570ccf38
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $258.4
- Realized PnL
- -$155.92
- Win rate
- 50%
- Open positions
- 3
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
No position
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?
Ends Jul 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 72.5%
- Current value
- $100.49
- Potential payout
- $138.61
- Potential profit
- $38.12
- Multiplier
- 1.38x
- User PnL
- $0.49
No position
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26?
Ends Jun 26, 2026- Implied probability
- 90.5%
- Current value
- $123.97
- Potential payout
- $136.99
- Potential profit
- $13.01
- Multiplier
- 1.10x
- User PnL
- $23.97
Resolved Context
Closed positions
No position
GPT-5.5 released by April 15, 2026?
Ends Apr 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $157.33
Yes position
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 30, 2026?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $88.16
Yes position
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by May 31st?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $35.14
Yes position
Will Trump visit China by June 30?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $22.2
No position
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 30, 2026?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $16.85
No position
US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by April 30?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $15.32
No position
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?
Ends Jul 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $10.79
Yes position
US x Iran meeting by April 10, 2026?
Ends Apr 10, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $8.82
Yes position
Epstein client list released by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 1.2%
- Multiplier
- 86.96x
- User PnL
- $6.06
No position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $5.42
No position
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 7th?
Ends Apr 7, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $4.97
No position
US forces enter Iran by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.57
Yes position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0
No position
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 15?
Ends Jun 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0
No position
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 17?
Ends Jun 17, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0
Yes position
Will Elon Musk win his case against Sam Altman?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$10
Yes position
Will Elon Musk and Sam Altman settle?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$10
No position
Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by April 30, 2026?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$50
No position
Will Putin visit China by May 31?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$52.4
No position
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 31, 2026?
Ends May 14, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$60
No position
GPT-5.5 released by April 23, 2026?
Ends Apr 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$65.32
Yes position
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 22, 2026?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$79.82
Yes position
Will Claude 5 be released by May 31, 2026?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$100
No position
Will Trump say "Six Seven" in April?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$100
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?No 72.1% 138.61 shares
- Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26?No 73% 136.99 shares
- Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 17?No 83.3% 79.37 shares
- Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 15?No 91% 66.54 shares
- MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?No 99.7% 60.97 shares
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?Yes 41% 28.59 shares
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?Yes 66% 151.52 shares
- MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?No 82% 60.98 shares
- Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?Yes 14% 357.14 shares
- Will Elon Musk and Sam Altman settle?Yes 4.5% 222.67 shares
- Will Elon Musk win his case against Sam Altman?Yes 0.7% 1,427.91 shares
- Will Putin visit China by May 31?No 1.2% 632.91 shares