Polymarket Trader

aaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaa

0x8eed541f6a3c6d056d598a5bfc71e16284f70eac

Public profile Partial data Delayed section

Open value: $124.43
Realized PnL: $398.05
Win rate: 100%
Open positions: 12
Closed positions: 24
Markets traded: Unavailable

Current Predictions

Open positions

Yes position

Will Moldova win Eurovision 2026?

Ends May 16, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $14.67K
Potential profit: $14.67K
User PnL: -$200

Yes position

Will Israel win Eurovision 2026?

Ends May 16, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $390.52
Potential profit: $390.52
User PnL: -$23.21

Yes position

Will the next Claude Sonnet model be released by July 1, 2026?

Ends Jul 1, 2026

Implied probability: 70.5%
Current value: $31.33
Potential payout: $44.44
Potential profit: $13.11
Multiplier: 1.42x
User PnL: $11.33

Yes position

Will the next Claude Sonnet model be released by June 30, 2026?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 68%
Current value: $27.2
Potential payout: $40
Potential profit: $12.8
Multiplier: 1.47x
User PnL: $17.2

Yes position

Next Mythos-Class Model released by September 30, 2026?

Ends Sep 30, 2026

Implied probability: 70%
Current value: $19.72
Potential payout: $28.17
Potential profit: $8.45
Multiplier: 1.43x
User PnL: -$0.28

No position

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 94.4%
Current value: $21.75
Potential payout: $23.04
Potential profit: $1.29
Multiplier: 1.06x
User PnL: $1.75

Yes position

Will the next Claude Sonnet model be released by July 2, 2026?

Ends Jul 2, 2026

Implied probability: 70%
Current value: $14
Potential payout: $20
Potential profit: $6
Multiplier: 1.43x
User PnL: $4

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET

Ends May 6, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $14.29
Potential profit: $14.29
User PnL: -$5

No position

Will Claude Mythos 5 be restored for US customers by June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 8.6%
Current value: $1.04
Potential payout: $12.05
Potential profit: $11.01
Multiplier: 11.57x
User PnL: -$8.96

No position

Will the US government rescind its ban on all foreign use of Claude Fable 5 by June 30?

Ends Jul 1, 2026

Implied probability: 83.5%
Current value: $9.38
Potential payout: $11.24
Potential profit: $1.85
Multiplier: 1.20x
User PnL: -$0.62

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET

Ends May 6, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $8.62
Potential profit: $8.62
User PnL: -$5

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET

Ends May 6, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $8.2
Potential profit: $8.2
User PnL: -$5

Resolved Context

Closed positions

Yes position

Will Bulgaria win Eurovision 2026?

Ends May 16, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $81.77

Yes position

Hungary Election: TISZA wins a constitutional majority?

Ends Apr 12, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $60.14

Yes position

Will TISZA win 50-54% of the national list votes in the 2026 Hungarian Parliamentary election?

Ends Apr 12, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $57.16

Yes position

Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in April?

Ends May 1, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $21.09

Yes position

Will Google have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $20.28

Yes position

Will the Virginia redistricting referendum pass?

Ends Apr 21, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $16.28

No position

Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán?

Ends Apr 12, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $15.23

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET

Ends Apr 16, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $14.69

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down on April 17?

Ends Apr 17, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $14.61

Yes position

Will Viktor Orbán be the next leader out before 2027?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $12.5

Yes position

Will Finland win the first Eurovision Semi-Final?

Ends May 12, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $11.8

Yes position

Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $10.04

Yes position

Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 99.1%
User PnL: $9.93

Up position

S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on April 16?

Ends Apr 16, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $8.81

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET

Ends Apr 16, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $7.79

Up position

S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on April 17?

Ends Apr 17, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $7.24

No position

Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-06?

Ends May 6, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $6.6

Up position

Russell 2000 (RUT) Up or Down on April 16?

Ends Apr 16, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $5.97

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET

Ends Apr 22, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $4.2

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET

Ends May 6, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $2.64

Up position

Netflix (NFLX) Up or Down on April 16?

Ends Apr 16, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $2.62

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET

Ends May 6, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $2.38

No position

Exact Score: FC Bayern München 2 - 2 Paris Saint-Germain FC?

Ends May 6, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $2.33

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET

Ends Apr 10, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.94

Trades

Recent trades

Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?

No 86.8% 23.04 shares
Will the US government rescind its ban on all foreign use of Claude Fable 5 by June 30?

No 89% 11.24 shares
Will Claude Mythos 5 be restored for US customers by June 30?

No 83% 12.05 shares
Next Mythos-Class Model released by September 30, 2026?

Yes 71% 28.17 shares
Will the next Claude Sonnet model be released by June 30, 2026?

Yes 25% 40 shares
Will the next Claude Sonnet model be released by July 1, 2026?

Yes 45% 44.44 shares
Will the next Claude Sonnet model be released by July 2, 2026?

Yes 50% 20 shares
Will the next Claude Sonnet model be released by June 30, 2026?

No 75% 133.15 shares
Will the next Claude Sonnet model be released by July 1, 2026?

No 55% 17.54 shares
Will the next Claude Sonnet model be released by July 1, 2026?

No 57% 17.54 shares
Will the next Claude Sonnet model be released by June 30, 2026?

No 75.1% 133.16 shares
Will Israel win Eurovision 2026?

Yes 5% 364.2 shares