DaveedOftheSnows

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $1.12K
Potential profit: $1.12K
User PnL: -$60.5

Yes position

Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?

Ends Nov 7, 2028

Implied probability: 5.4%
Current value: $55.73
Potential payout: $1.04K
Potential profit: $985.94
Multiplier: 18.69x
User PnL: $5.73

Yes position

Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election?

Ends Nov 7, 2028

Implied probability: 1.8%
Current value: $17.5
Potential payout: $1K
Potential profit: $982.5
Multiplier: 57.14x
User PnL: -$22.5

Yes position

Will Darializa Avila Chevalier be the Democratic Nominee for NY-13?

Ends Jun 23, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
Current value: $857.16
Potential payout: $857.59
Potential profit: $0.43
User PnL: $521.16

Yes position

Will Avatar 3 be the top grossing movie of 2025?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $500.1
Potential profit: $500.1
User PnL: -$50

No position

Will Trump agree to a tariff agreement with Japan in July?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $444.92
Potential profit: $444.92
User PnL: -$250

No position

US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14

Ends Jun 14, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $423.2
Potential profit: $423.2
User PnL: -$75

Yes position

Israel x Hamas ceasefire by August 31?

Ends Aug 31, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $409.89
Potential profit: $409.89
User PnL: -$296

No position

Will Trump agree to a tariff agreement with Mexico in July?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $384.59
Potential profit: $384.59
User PnL: -$280

Yes position

Will Khamenei leave Iran by March 31?

Ends Jan 9, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $364.54
Potential profit: $364.54
User PnL: -$100

No position

Will Trump say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during the Energy and Innovation Summit on July 15?

Ends Jul 15, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $285.71
Potential profit: $285.71
User PnL: -$20

Yes position

Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 15?

Ends Apr 15, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $250
Potential profit: $250
User PnL: -$25

Yes position

Will Trump agree to a tariff agreement with Canada in July?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $227.71
Potential profit: $227.71
User PnL: -$104

Yes position

Will a new country join the Abraham Accords in 2025?

Ends Jan 1, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $218.41
Potential profit: $218.41
User PnL: -$142

No position

Will Kathy Hochul endorse Mamdani?

Ends Nov 3, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $204.58
Potential profit: $204.58
User PnL: -$80

Yes position

Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2025?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $185.19
Potential profit: $185.19
User PnL: -$100

Yes position

Will Saudi Arabia strike Iran by March 31?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $132.28
Potential profit: $132.28
User PnL: -$25

No position

Will Bernie Sanders say "Big Beautiful Bill" during Fighting Oligarchy speech on August 24?

Ends Aug 24, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $125
Potential profit: $125
User PnL: -$20

Yes position

Will UAE strike Iran by March 31?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $125
Potential profit: $125
User PnL: -$25

No position

JD Vance diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 30?

Ends Apr 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $121.04
Potential profit: $121.04
User PnL: -$100

Yes position

Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30?

Ends Apr 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $120.61
Potential profit: $120.61
User PnL: -$40

Yes position

Will Carlos Alcaraz win Wimbledon 2025?

Ends Jul 13, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $114.92
Potential profit: $114.92
User PnL: -$52

Yes position

US forces enter Iran by March 31?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $112.36
Potential profit: $112.36
User PnL: -$10

Yes position

Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 13.5%
Current value: $13.5
Potential payout: $100
Potential profit: $86.5
Multiplier: 7.41x
User PnL: -$46.5

Resolved Context

Closed positions

Yes position

Will MrBeast x Ronaldo video get less than 50m views on day 1?

Ends Nov 30, 2024

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $601.92

Yes position

Will there be a US Government shutdown?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $539.98

Yes position

Will Zohran Mamdani win the Democratic Primary for Mayor of New York City?

Ends Jun 24, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $504.34

No position

Will Obama endorse Mamdani?

Ends Nov 5, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $240

Yes position

Azerbaijan blames Russia for downing plane?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $232.27

Yes position

Assad leaves Syria before 2025?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $231.42

No position

Israel x Hamas ceasefire before August?

Ends Jul 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $188.19

Yes position

Will Trump agree to a tariff agreement with European Union in July?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $140.56

No position

Israel withdraws from Lebanon before December?

Ends Nov 30, 2024

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $131.28

Yes position

Brian Thompson Perp arrested by Friday?

Ends Dec 13, 2024

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $99.92

Yes position

Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $99.17

No position

Will ICC withdraw its arrest warrant against Netanyahu before July?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $98.61

Yes position

Will David Sacks be a member of the Trump administration?

Ends Mar 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $92.49

No position

Bernie Sanders votes to confirm Tulsi Gabbard?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $90.06

No position

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $85

No position

Bernie Sanders votes to confirm RFK Jr?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $78.15

Yes position

Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?

Ends Feb 28, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $77.06

No position

Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez attend presidential inauguration?

Ends Jan 20, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $72.57

No position

Will Trump agree to a tariff agreement with India in July?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $67.66

No position

Lord Miles completes 40-day water fast in the desert?

Ends Sep 30, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $59.87

No position

Will Trump impose 25% tariff on Mexico or Canada before February?

Ends Jan 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $58.1

No position

Will Bernie Sanders say "AIPAC" during Fighting Oligarchy speech on August 24?

Ends Aug 24, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $57.98

No position

Israel x Hamas ceasefire in 2024?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $57.41

Yes position

TikTok banned in 2025?