Yes position
Will the Steam Machine cost $700 or more at release?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 97.9%
- Current value
- $198.75
- Potential payout
- $203.12
- Potential profit
- $4.37
- Multiplier
- 1.02x
- User PnL
- $4.75
Polymarket Trader
NatsuNight
0x8f3300553f9c713f683cf708b32ec9a88ed7bebc
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $212.99
- Realized PnL
- -$65.31
- Win rate
- 29.4%
- Open positions
- 8
- Closed positions
- 17
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
Yes position
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 14.5%
- Current value
- $1.81
- Potential payout
- $12.5
- Potential profit
- $10.69
- Multiplier
- 6.90x
- User PnL
- -$0.19
Yes position
Will inflation reach more than 4.5% in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 19.5%
- Current value
- $1.86
- Potential payout
- $9.52
- Potential profit
- $7.67
- Multiplier
- 5.13x
- User PnL
- -$0.14
Yes position
Will SpaceX have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 85.5%
- Current value
- $4.91
- Potential payout
- $5.75
- Potential profit
- $0.83
- Multiplier
- 1.17x
- User PnL
- -$0.09
Yes position
Will GPT-5.6 not be released by June 28, 2026?
Ends Jun 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 98.7%
- Current value
- $2.86
- Potential payout
- $2.9
- Potential profit
- $0.04
- Multiplier
- 1.01x
- User PnL
- $0.86
No position
Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 37%
- Current value
- $0.99
- Potential payout
- $2.67
- Potential profit
- $1.68
- Multiplier
- 2.70x
- User PnL
- -$1.01
No position
Will GPT-5.6 be released between June 22 and June 28, 2026?
Ends Jun 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.3%
- Current value
- $1.39
- Potential payout
- $1.4
- Potential profit
- $0.01
- User PnL
- $0.39
Yes position
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?
Ends Jul 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 31.5%
- Current value
- $0.41
- Potential payout
- $1.32
- Potential profit
- $0.9
- Multiplier
- 3.17x
- User PnL
- -$0.59
Resolved Context
Closed positions
No position
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T?
Ends Dec 31, 2027- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $8.51
Yes position
Trump declassifies JFK files in first 100 days?
Ends Apr 29, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1
No position
30m Bluesky users in November?
Ends Nov 30, 2024- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.82
Yes position
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 10.4%
- Multiplier
- 9.62x
- User PnL
- $0.46
Yes position
Will Trump say "illegal immigrant" or "illegal immigration" during his inauguration speech?
Ends Feb 3, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $0.04
No position
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 19?
Ends Jun 19, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0
No position
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22?
Ends Jun 22, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0
Yes position
Will Trump say "doge" or "Dogecoin" during his inauguration speech?
Ends Feb 3, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$0.14
Yes position
Will Trump say "McDonald's" during his inauguration speech?
Ends Feb 3, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$0.5
Yes position
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26?
Ends Jun 26, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$0.93
Yes position
Will 'Balatro' win Game of the Year?
Ends Dec 12, 2024- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$0.95
Yes position
Will 'Black Myth: Wukong' win Game of the Year?
Ends Dec 12, 2024- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$1.02
Yes position
Trump ends Ukraine war in first 90 days?
Ends Apr 20, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$1.7
No position
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T?
Ends Dec 31, 2027- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$5
No position
Will Trump say "Dumbocrat" during Bret Baier interview?
Ends May 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$5
No position
Will 'Astro Bot' win Game of the Year?
Ends Dec 12, 2024- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$7.12
Yes position
Will Kanye release BULLY by January 30?
Ends Jan 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$53.77
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26?Yes 4.1% 1.58 shares
- Will inflation reach more than 4.5% in 2026?Yes 21% 9.52 shares
- Will the Steam Machine cost $700 or more at release?Yes 95.6% 67.99 shares
- Will the Steam Machine cost $700 or more at release?Yes 95.6% 104.6 shares
- Will the Steam Machine cost $700 or more at release?Yes 95% 25.26 shares
- Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?No 75% 2.67 shares
- Will SpaceX have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?Yes 87% 5.75 shares
- Will GPT-5.6 not be released by June 28, 2026?Yes 69% 2.9 shares
- Will GPT-5.6 be released between June 22 and June 28, 2026?No 71.3% 1.4 shares
- Will the Steam Machine cost $700 or more at release?Yes 95% 5.26 shares
- Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22?No 73% 1.37 shares
- Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 19?No 94.1% 5.31 shares