No position
Russia x Ukraine diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 92%
- Current value
- $303.3
- Potential payout
- $329.67
- Potential profit
- $26.37
- Multiplier
- 1.09x
- User PnL
- $3.3
Polymarket Trader
0x8f4e...7c93
0x8f4e23015483fe76969e7c02b9e2fb6defc97c93
Public profile Partial data Delayed sectionDelayed section
- Open value
- $2.35K
- Realized PnL
- $716.2
- Win rate
- 91.7%
- Open positions
- 18
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
No position
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 94.3%
- Current value
- $256.79
- Potential payout
- $272.45
- Potential profit
- $15.67
- Multiplier
- 1.06x
- User PnL
- $8.04
No position
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.2%
- Current value
- $266.09
- Potential payout
- $268.24
- Potential profit
- $2.15
- User PnL
- $16.09
No position
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 80.5%
- Current value
- $200.24
- Potential payout
- $248.75
- Potential profit
- $48.51
- Multiplier
- 1.24x
- User PnL
- $1.24
No position
Iran leadership change by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.3%
- Current value
- $217.04
- Potential payout
- $218.68
- Potential profit
- $1.64
- User PnL
- $18.04
No position
Russia-Ukraine peace talks by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 98.2%
- Current value
- $211.08
- Potential payout
- $215.05
- Potential profit
- $3.98
- Multiplier
- 1.02x
- User PnL
- $11.08
Yes position
Will United Russia (ER) win the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?
Ends Sep 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 96%
- Current value
- $184.28
- Potential payout
- $191.96
- Potential profit
- $7.68
- Multiplier
- 1.04x
- User PnL
- -$0.19
No position
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.3%
- Current value
- $154.85
- Potential payout
- $156.02
- Potential profit
- $1.17
- User PnL
- $4.85
Yes position
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 72.5%
- Current value
- $100.69
- Potential payout
- $138.89
- Potential profit
- $38.19
- Multiplier
- 1.38x
- User PnL
- $0.69
Yes position
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 98.5%
- Current value
- $131.97
- Potential payout
- $134.04
- Potential profit
- $2.08
- Multiplier
- 1.02x
- User PnL
- $30.23
Yes position
Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 70.5%
- Current value
- $92.76
- Potential payout
- $131.58
- Potential profit
- $38.82
- Multiplier
- 1.42x
- User PnL
- -$7.24
No position
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.3%
- Current value
- $105.59
- Potential payout
- $106.38
- Potential profit
- $0.8
- User PnL
- $5.59
No position
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 84%
- Current value
- $21.1
- Potential payout
- $25.11
- Potential profit
- $4.02
- Multiplier
- 1.19x
- User PnL
- $1.1
No position
Will Ukraine re-enter Kamianske by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 90.5%
- Current value
- $21.05
- Potential payout
- $23.26
- Potential profit
- $2.21
- Multiplier
- 1.10x
- User PnL
- $1.05
No position
Will Russia capture Sofiivka by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 95.5%
- Current value
- $21.7
- Potential payout
- $22.73
- Potential profit
- $1.02
- Multiplier
- 1.05x
- User PnL
- $1.7
No position
Will Russia capture Dovha Balka by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 92.9%
- Current value
- $20.2
- Potential payout
- $21.74
- Potential profit
- $1.54
- Multiplier
- 1.08x
- User PnL
- $0.2
No position
Will Russia capture Huliaipilske by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 96%
- Current value
- $20.67
- Potential payout
- $21.53
- Potential profit
- $0.86
- Multiplier
- 1.04x
- User PnL
- $0.67
No position
Will Russia capture Lyman by June 30, 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 95.6%
- Current value
- $20.33
- Potential payout
- $21.28
- Potential profit
- $0.95
- Multiplier
- 1.05x
- User PnL
- $0.33
Resolved Context
Closed positions
Yes position
Will TISZA – Respect and Freedom Party (TISZA) win the most seats in the next Hungarian parliamentary election?
Ends Apr 12, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $236.14
No position
US forces enter Iran by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $83.18
Yes position
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $49.75
No position
Will the U.S. invade Iran by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $45.31
Yes position
Starmer out by December 31, 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $42.64
No position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $32.93
No position
Iran leadership change by May 31?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $25.6
Yes position
Will claude-opus-4-6-thinking have the best AI model on May 30, 2026?
Ends May 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $25.53
No position
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?
Ends Jun 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $24.73
No position
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $23.75
No position
Will another country conduct military action against Iran by April 15, 2026?
Ends Apr 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $22.62
Yes position
Starmer out by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $19.41
Yes position
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?
Ends Jun 22, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $17.87
No position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?
Ends May 26, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $13.04
No position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $9.84
No position
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?
Ends Jul 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $9.24
Yes position
Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on May 31?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $7.88
No position
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $7.76
Yes position
Will Arsenal win a trophy this season?
Ends May 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $7.5
Yes position
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17?
Ends Jun 17, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $7.03
No position
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $3.81
Yes position
Starmer out by July 31, 2026?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.66
Yes position
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0
No position
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Russia x Ukraine diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?No 91% 109.89 shares
- Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?Yes 86% 71.15 shares
- Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?Yes 83% 24.1 shares
- Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?Yes 84% 23.81 shares
- Starmer out by July 31, 2026?Yes 96.8% 20.62 shares
- Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027?Yes 39.3% 51.29 shares
- Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027?Yes 67% 51.3 shares
- Russia x Ukraine diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?No 91% 219.78 shares
- Russia-Ukraine peace talks by June 30, 2026?No 93% 215.05 shares
- Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?Yes 72% 138.89 shares
- Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?Yes 76% 131.58 shares
- Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan?Yes 1.9% 153.04 shares