Xendo1

Implied probability: 0.9%
Current value: $140
Potential payout: $16.47K
Potential profit: $16.33K
Multiplier: 117.65x
User PnL: -$3.89K

Yes position

Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election?

Ends Nov 7, 2028

Implied probability: 0.8%
Current value: $86.25
Potential payout: $11.5K
Potential profit: $11.41K
Multiplier: 133.33x
User PnL: $5.75

Yes position

Will Israel reopen its embassy in Iran in 2026?

Implied probability: 8.1%
Current value: $595.69
Potential payout: $7.4K
Potential profit: $6.8K
Multiplier: 12.42x
User PnL: -$143.22

Yes position

Will Israel be the Jury Winner in the Eurovision 2026 Grand Final?

Ends May 16, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $6K
Potential profit: $6K
User PnL: -$54

Yes position

Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30?

Implied probability: 0.4%
Current value: $18.2
Potential payout: $5.2K
Potential profit: $5.18K
Multiplier: 285.71x
User PnL: -$855.73

Yes position

Will Amir Ohana be the next Prime Minister of Israel?

Implied probability: 0.3%
Current value: $12.5
Potential payout: $5K
Potential profit: $4.99K
Multiplier: 400.00x
User PnL: -$7.5

Yes position

Will Gideon Sa’ar be the next Prime Minister of Israel?

Implied probability: 0.5%
Current value: $22.5
Potential payout: $5K
Potential profit: $4.98K
Multiplier: 222.22x
User PnL: $2.5

Yes position

Will Israel Katz be the next Prime Minister of Israel?

Implied probability: 0.6%
Current value: $27.5
Potential payout: $5K
Potential profit: $4.97K
Multiplier: 181.82x
User PnL: $7.5

No position

Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026?

Implied probability: 98.4%
Current value: $4.77K
Potential payout: $4.85K
Potential profit: $80.1
Multiplier: 1.02x
User PnL: $324.19

Yes position

Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $4.76K
Potential profit: $4.76K
User PnL: -$76.28

Yes position

Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election?

Ends Nov 7, 2028

Implied probability: 0.7%
Current value: $19.5
Potential payout: $3K
Potential profit: $2.98K
Multiplier: 153.85x
User PnL: -$4.5

Yes position

Will Mahmoud Abbas be the next leader out before 2027?

Implied probability: 0.2%
Current value: $3.99
Potential payout: $2.66K
Potential profit: $2.66K
Multiplier: 666.67x
User PnL: -$32.6

Yes position

Will Australia win the televote for Eurovision 2026?

Ends May 16, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $2K
Potential profit: $2K
User PnL: -$26

Yes position

Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?

Implied probability: 9.5%
Current value: $171
Potential payout: $1.8K
Potential profit: $1.63K
Multiplier: 10.53x
User PnL: -$117

Yes position

Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $1.6K
Potential profit: $1.6K
User PnL: -$208

No position

Iran Nuke before 2027?

Implied probability: 92.5%
Current value: $1.33K
Potential payout: $1.44K
Potential profit: $108.82
Multiplier: 1.08x
User PnL: $92.96

Yes position

Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals?

Ends Jul 1, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $1.34K
Potential profit: $1.34K
User PnL: -$20.1

Yes position

Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31?

Implied probability: 6.5%
Current value: $78
Potential payout: $1.2K
Potential profit: $1.12K
Multiplier: 15.38x
User PnL: -$222

Yes position

Iran leadership change by May 31?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $1.2K
Potential profit: $1.2K
User PnL: -$172

Yes position

Will another country recognize Somaliland by June 30?

Implied probability: 3.4%
Current value: $28.04
Potential payout: $824.81
Potential profit: $796.76
Multiplier: 29.41x
User PnL: -$160.86

Yes position

Will Deni Avdija win the 2025–2026 NBA Most Improved Player?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $800
Potential profit: $800
User PnL: -$29.6

No position

Israel x Hamas Ceasefire Phase II by June 30?

Implied probability: 94.5%
Current value: $755.16
Potential payout: $799.11
Potential profit: $43.95
Multiplier: 1.06x
User PnL: $108.26

Yes position

Will Anthony Hernandez be the UFC Middleweight Champion on December 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 0.2%
Current value: $1.09
Potential payout: $729.95
Potential profit: $728.85
Multiplier: 666.67x
User PnL: -$1.09

Yes position

Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?

Ends Jun 2, 2026

Implied probability: 0.9%
Current value: $5.53
Potential payout: $650
Potential profit: $644.48
Multiplier: 117.65x
User PnL: -$109.47

Resolved Context

Closed positions

Yes position

Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $7.19K

Yes position

Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $2.89K

Yes position

Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.46K

No position

Will Iran strike Israel on March 6?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $702.97

No position

Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on April 10, 2026?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $700.29

Yes position

Will Israel strike Gaza on February 14, 2026?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $453.39

Yes position

US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?

Ends Jan 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $385.7

Yes position

Will Israel or the US target Tehran?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $360

No position

Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz before 2027?

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $322.5

No position

Israel strike on Yemen by March 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $280.51

Yes position

Will Israel strike Gaza on February 15, 2026?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $277.66

No position

Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 30, 2026?

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $273.43

Timberwolves position

Timberwolves vs. Spurs

Ends May 4, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $264

No position

Will another country conduct military action against Iran by April 30, 2026?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $217.73

Yes position

US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?

Ends Apr 7, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $192.4

Yes position

Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by June 30?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $189.3

Yes position

Will the US next strike Iran on February 28, 2026 (ET)?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $186.58

Yes position

US x Iran ceasefire by April 15?

Ends Apr 15, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $169.18

Yes position

Will Israel strike Gaza on February 17, 2026?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $160.7

No position

US/Israel strike Yemen by March 7?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $148.8

Yes position

Will Israel strike Gaza on February 20, 2026?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $136.94

Yes position

Israeli forces cross the Litani River by June 30?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $134.1

Yes position

U.S. x Iran Military Engagement by March 31, 2026?