NewWorldConquistador

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $4.46K
Potential profit: $4.46K
User PnL: -$124.53

Yes position

Will Ilhan Omar's husband be charged with fraud?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $1.71K
Potential profit: $1.71K
User PnL: -$37.05

Yes position

Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?

Implied probability: 14.5%
Current value: $162.29
Potential payout: $1.12K
Potential profit: $956.94
Multiplier: 6.90x
User PnL: -$27.71

Yes position

Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $997.55
Potential profit: $997.55
User PnL: -$162.16

Yes position

Will Khamenei leave Iran by Jan 31?

Ends Jan 9, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $927.53
Potential profit: $927.53
User PnL: -$80.66

Yes position

Will the Iranian regime fall by January 31?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $894.45
Potential profit: $894.45
User PnL: -$115.56

Yes position

US forces enter Iran by March 31?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $583.86
Potential profit: $583.86
User PnL: -$230

Yes position

Will Trump nominate Rick Rieder as the next Fed chair?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $452.65
Potential profit: $452.65
User PnL: -$40

Yes position

China coup attempt before 2027?

Implied probability: 2.4%
Current value: $10.24
Potential payout: $435.92
Potential profit: $425.68
Multiplier: 42.55x
User PnL: -$25.15

Yes position

Odds Trump acquires Greenland before 2027 hit 50% by March 31?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $412.48
Potential profit: $412.48
User PnL: -$40

Patriots position

Spread: Seahawks (-4.5)

Ends Feb 8, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $400
Potential profit: $400
User PnL: -$200

Yes position

Will the U.S. invade Iran by March 31?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $385.84
Potential profit: $385.84
User PnL: -$59.88

Yes position

Will US withdraw from NATO before 2027?

Implied probability: 3.9%
Current value: $14.59
Potential payout: $378.94
Potential profit: $364.35
Multiplier: 25.97x
User PnL: -$33.01

Yes position

Will the US officially declare war on Iran by December 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 5.5%
Current value: $20
Potential payout: $363.64
Potential profit: $343.64
Multiplier: 18.18x
User PnL: -$20

Yes position

Will Khamenei leave Iran by March 31?

Ends Jan 9, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $330.93
Potential profit: $330.93
User PnL: -$41.03

Patriots position

Seahawks vs. Patriots

Ends Feb 8, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $312.5
Potential profit: $312.5
User PnL: -$100

Yes position

NATO dissolves before 2027?

Implied probability: 1.2%
Current value: $3.54
Potential payout: $307.7
Potential profit: $304.16
Multiplier: 86.96x
User PnL: -$26.46

Yes position

Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $291.04
Potential profit: $291.04
User PnL: -$55.04

Yes position

Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by January 31?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $286
Potential profit: $286
User PnL: -$20.02

Yes position

Tim Walz charged by March 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $285.89
Potential profit: $285.89
User PnL: -$14.02

Yes position

Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by April 30?

Ends Apr 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $228.29
Potential profit: $228.29
User PnL: -$100

Yes position

Will the US conduct a cyberattack on Iran by Jan 31?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $220.31
Potential profit: $220.31
User PnL: -$26.57

Yes position

Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?

Implied probability: 14.5%
Current value: $31.29
Potential payout: $215.76
Potential profit: $184.48
Multiplier: 6.90x
User PnL: -$68.71

Yes position

Government shutdown on Saturday?

Ends Feb 14, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $187.13
Potential profit: $187.13
User PnL: -$122.5

Resolved Context

Closed positions

Yes position

Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?

Ends Feb 28, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $284.74

Yes position

US government shutdown Saturday?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $168.33

Yes position

US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $104.57

Yes position

Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of March?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $100.41

No position

Nothing Ever Happens: Khamenei

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $90.6

Yes position

Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $80 by end of March?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $89.32

Yes position

US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $88.33

Over position

Mexico vs. England: O/U 2.5

Ends Jul 6, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $88.27

Yes position

US forces enter Iran by April 30?

Ends Apr 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $83.62

Yes position

Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $80.56

Yes position

Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $63.22

Yes position

Will Spain win on 2026-07-06?

Ends Jul 6, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $23.08

Over position

Brazil vs. Norway: O/U 2.5

Ends Jul 5, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $19.46

Yes position

Masoud Pezeshkian out by March 31?

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $18.05

Under position

Seahawks vs. Patriots: O/U 45.5

Ends Feb 8, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $13.85

Yes position

Will Iran close its airspace by February 28, 2026?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $13.69

Yes position

Masoud Pezeshkian out by June 30?

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $10.91

Yes position

US strikes Iran by March 7, 2026?