No position
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?
Ends May 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $507.23
- Potential profit
- $507.23
- User PnL
- -$18
Polymarket Trader
paprikc
0x909b0a90f38a3677b9c478f94d6f129627024e60
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $115.47
- Realized PnL
- -$18.09
- Win rate
- 0%
- Open positions
- 17
- Closed positions
- 2
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
Yes position
Iran leadership change by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.3%
- Current value
- $1
- Potential payout
- $400
- Potential profit
- $399
- Multiplier
- 400.00x
- User PnL
- -$3
No position
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026?
Ends May 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $351.16
- Potential profit
- $351.16
- User PnL
- -$3
Yes position
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by July 31?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 2.1%
- Current value
- $2.86
- Potential payout
- $136.36
- Potential profit
- $133.5
- Multiplier
- 47.62x
- User PnL
- -$0.14
Yes position
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 21.5%
- Current value
- $22.63
- Potential payout
- $105.26
- Potential profit
- $82.63
- Multiplier
- 4.65x
- User PnL
- $2.63
No position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 63.5%
- Current value
- $57.31
- Potential payout
- $90.26
- Potential profit
- $32.94
- Multiplier
- 1.57x
- User PnL
- $7.32
Yes position
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 3.1%
- Current value
- $1.94
- Potential payout
- $62.5
- Potential profit
- $60.56
- Multiplier
- 32.26x
- User PnL
- -$3.06
No position
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026?
Ends Jun 21, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $61.79
- Potential profit
- $61.79
- User PnL
- -$10
Yes position
Meloni out as Prime Minister of Italy by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 8%
- Current value
- $3.64
- Potential payout
- $45.45
- Potential profit
- $41.82
- Multiplier
- 12.50x
- User PnL
- -$1.36
No position
Starmer out by December 31, 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $33.33
- Potential profit
- $33.33
- User PnL
- -$2
Yes position
Iran leadership change by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 15.5%
- Current value
- $4.84
- Potential payout
- $31.25
- Potential profit
- $26.41
- Multiplier
- 6.45x
- User PnL
- -$0.16
Yes position
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
Ends Nov 7, 2028- Implied probability
- 13.1%
- Current value
- $3.3
- Potential payout
- $25.32
- Potential profit
- $22.01
- Multiplier
- 7.66x
- User PnL
- -$0.7
No position
Will Giorgia Meloni be the next Prime Minister of Italy?
Ends Dec 31, 2028- Implied probability
- 47.5%
- Current value
- $9.9
- Potential payout
- $20.83
- Potential profit
- $10.94
- Multiplier
- 2.11x
- User PnL
- -$0.1
No position
Will Andy Burnham be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 2.3%
- Current value
- $0.31
- Potential payout
- $13.51
- Potential profit
- $13.2
- Multiplier
- 43.48x
- User PnL
- -$0.69
Yes position
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 29.5%
- Current value
- $3.93
- Potential payout
- $13.33
- Potential profit
- $9.4
- Multiplier
- 3.39x
- User PnL
- -$0.07
No position
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 16.3%
- Current value
- $1.89
- Potential payout
- $11.61
- Potential profit
- $9.72
- Multiplier
- 6.15x
- User PnL
- -$0.11
Yes position
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 33.5%
- Current value
- $1.91
- Potential payout
- $5.71
- Potential profit
- $3.8
- Multiplier
- 2.99x
- User PnL
- -$0.09
Resolved Context
Closed positions
Yes position
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 9.5%
- Multiplier
- 10.53x
- User PnL
- -$0.2
No position
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$17.89
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?No 0.9% 111.11 shares
- US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026?No 0.3% 333.33 shares
- Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?Yes 8% 62.5 shares
- Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?Yes 19% 105.26 shares
- Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?No 5% 444.44 shares
- Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Yes 15.8% 25.32 shares
- Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?No 9% 444.44 shares
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?No 55% 54.55 shares
- Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by July 31?Yes 2.2% 90.91 shares
- Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?Yes 30% 13.33 shares
- Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by July 31?Yes 2.2% 45.45 shares
- Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?Yes 35% 5.71 shares