Yes position
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 3.8%
- Current value
- $85.23
- Potential payout
- $2.27K
- Potential profit
- $2.19K
- Multiplier
- 26.67x
- User PnL
- -$14.77
Polymarket Trader
Ferenc199
0x90cf5bbab8df21e2cafd0d082d4eaf9997332d2c
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $402.19
- Realized PnL
- $221.55
- Win rate
- 63.6%
- Open positions
- 6
- Closed positions
- 22
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
Yes position
US x Cuba economic deal by July 31, 2026?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 9%
- Current value
- $64.79
- Potential payout
- $719.85
- Potential profit
- $655.07
- Multiplier
- 11.11x
- User PnL
- -$78.03
Yes position
Cuban regime falls in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 18.5%
- Current value
- $119.51
- Potential payout
- $646
- Potential profit
- $526.49
- Multiplier
- 5.41x
- User PnL
- -$2.01
Yes position
Ex-Cuba leader Raul Castro in US custody by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.5%
- Current value
- $1.4
- Potential payout
- $280.57
- Potential profit
- $279.16
- Multiplier
- 200.00x
- User PnL
- -$48.6
Yes position
US x Cuba economic deal by December 31, 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 53.5%
- Current value
- $131.26
- Potential payout
- $245.35
- Potential profit
- $114.09
- Multiplier
- 1.87x
- User PnL
- $23.56
Yes position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?
Ends May 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $28.71
- Potential profit
- $28.71
- User PnL
- -$6.03
Resolved Context
Closed positions
Y
Yes position
Will the US-Iran deal be physically signed by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $133.65
Yes position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $74.04
No position
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 98.5%
- Multiplier
- 1.02x
- User PnL
- $53.86
No position
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 30?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $51.36
Yes position
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $51.24
No position
Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire extended by April 26, 2026?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $33.23
Yes position
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $29.09
Yes position
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 15, 2026?
Ends May 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $26.68
No position
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31?
Ends May 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $20.91
No position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $16.92
No position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 94.3%
- Multiplier
- 1.06x
- User PnL
- $11.36
No position
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 97.3%
- Multiplier
- 1.03x
- User PnL
- $9.19
Yes position
US forces enter Iran by April 30?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.31
No position
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 22%
- Multiplier
- 4.55x
- User PnL
- $0.12
Yes position
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 1.6%
- Multiplier
- 62.50x
- User PnL
- -$3.97
Yes position
Israel military action against Fordow nuclear facility by April 30?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$4
Yes position
Will Iran strike Oman by April 30, 2026?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$4
No position
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by May 15?
Ends May 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$15.37
Yes position
US x Cuba economic deal by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 2.2%
- Multiplier
- 45.45x
- User PnL
- -$20.09
Yes position
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 15, 2026?
Ends Jun 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- -$27.15
Yes position
Iran leadership change by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$62.04
Yes position
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by April 21, 2026?
Ends Apr 21, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$154.78
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Cuban regime falls in 2026?Yes 19% 524 shares
- Cuban regime falls in 2026?Yes 18% 122 shares
- US x Cuba economic deal by December 31, 2026?Yes 44% 230 shares
- US x Cuba economic deal by December 31, 2026?Yes 43% 6 shares
- US x Cuba economic deal by December 31, 2026?Yes 42% 9.35 shares
- US x Cuba economic deal by July 31, 2026?Yes 15.8% 252.5 shares
- Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026?Yes 4.4% 2,272.73 shares
- Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?No 57% 185.71 shares
- Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?No 28% 185.71 shares
- US x Cuba economic deal by June 30, 2026?Yes 13% 113.94 shares
- US x Cuba economic deal by June 30, 2026?Yes 14% 265 shares
- Will the US-Iran deal be physically signed by June 30?Yes 37% 310.81 shares