No position
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?
Ends Jun 21, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.3%
- Current value
- $107.54K
- Potential payout
- $108.29K
- Potential profit
- $758.06
- User PnL
- -$0
Polymarket Trader
Alder
0x91168ddb61315a38c13f26b7d74764e21cfc6fda
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $107.54K
- Realized PnL
- $83.79K
- Win rate
- 100%
- Open positions
- 1
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
Resolved Context
Closed positions
No position
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.7%
- User PnL
- $9.48K
No position
US x Iran ceasefire by March 15?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $7.99K
No position
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by September 30?
Ends Sep 30, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $6.39K
No position
Will Pierre Poilievre be the next Canadian Prime Minister?
Ends Apr 28, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $6.09K
No position
Trump ends Ukraine war in first 90 days?
Ends Apr 20, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $5.5K
Yes position
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2025 meeting?
Ends Dec 10, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $3.92K
No position
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by August 31?
Ends Aug 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $3.88K
Yes position
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election?
Ends Nov 4, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $3.85K
Yes position
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting?
Ends Jan 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $3.84K
No position
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $3.36K
No position
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $3.28K
No position
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by September 15?
Ends Sep 15, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $3.27K
No position
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $3.19K
No position
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.75K
No position
US x Iran ceasefire by March 6?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.68K
Yes position
Israel strike on Iran on June 22?
Ends Jun 23, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.02K
Yes position
Will Trump meet with Putin by August 15?
Ends Aug 15, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.99K
Yes position
Will Gemini 3.0 be released by November 22?
Ends Oct 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.83K
Yes position
No change in Fed interest rates after July 2025 meeting?
Ends Jul 30, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.79K
Yes position
Will Kamala win New York by 10+ points?
Ends Nov 5, 2024- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.44K
No position
Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?
Ends Jun 30, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.38K
Yes position
Israel strike on Iran on June 18?
Ends Jun 20, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.34K
No position
Will Evelyn Matthei win the Chilean presidential election?
Ends Nov 16, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.29K
Kamala position
Favorite to win on Polymarket day after debate?
Ends Sep 11, 2024- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.24K
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?No 99.4% 74,599.92 shares
- Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?No 99.4% 24,080.08 shares
- Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?No 96.6% 10 shares
- Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?No 96% 98,670 shares
- Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?No 99.3% 20,000 shares
- Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?No 99.4% 34,636.9 shares
- US x Iran ceasefire by March 31?No 96.6% 339.49 shares
- Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?No 99.6% 13,452.94 shares
- Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?No 95.6% 26,560 shares
- Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?No 95.5% 1,050 shares
- Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?No 96.3% 458.34 shares
- US x Iran ceasefire by March 15?No 94% 16,993.87 shares