0x911bb6C41a9E1A9c861029640fADC5884FB0A7fE-1765481426167

Implied probability: 0.2%
Current value: $2
Potential payout: $1.33K
Potential profit: $1.33K
Multiplier: 666.67x
User PnL: -$18

Yes position

Will the Bank of Korea increase the base rate after the May Meeting?

Ends May 28, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $966.78
Potential profit: $966.78
User PnL: -$100

Yes position

Will Anthropic’s valuation hit (HIGH) $1.5T by June 30?

Ends Jul 1, 2026

Implied probability: 1.8%
Current value: $12.5
Potential payout: $714.29
Potential profit: $701.79
Multiplier: 57.14x
User PnL: -$37.5

Yes position

Will Google have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $616.63
Potential profit: $616.63
User PnL: -$40

Yes position

Will OpenAI have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?

Implied probability: 1.5%
Current value: $8.7
Potential payout: $580.3
Potential profit: $571.59
Multiplier: 66.67x
User PnL: -$11.3

Yes position

Anduril Industries IPO before 2027?

Implied probability: 9.5%
Current value: $52.78
Potential payout: $555.56
Potential profit: $502.78
Multiplier: 10.53x
User PnL: $2.78

Yes position

Will Anthropic’s valuation hit (HIGH) $1.25T by June 30?

Ends Jul 1, 2026

Implied probability: 3.1%
Current value: $16.4
Potential payout: $529.15
Potential profit: $512.74
Multiplier: 32.26x
User PnL: -$103.6

Yes position

Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?

Ends Nov 7, 2028

Implied probability: 5.4%
Current value: $26.31
Potential payout: $491.8
Potential profit: $465.49
Multiplier: 18.69x
User PnL: -$3.69

OpenAI position

Anthropic vs OpenAI - higher valuation on December 31?

Ends Jan 1, 2027

Implied probability: 20.5%
Current value: $97.62
Potential payout: $476.19
Potential profit: $378.57
Multiplier: 4.88x
User PnL: -$2.38

Yes position

Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by December 31?

Ends Jan 1, 2027

Implied probability: 20.5%
Current value: $93.18
Potential payout: $454.55
Potential profit: $361.36
Multiplier: 4.88x
User PnL: -$6.82

Yes position

Will an Anthropic Claude model score at least 45% on Humanity’s Last Exam?

Implied probability: 18%
Current value: $75.48
Potential payout: $419.33
Potential profit: $343.85
Multiplier: 5.56x
User PnL: $0.48

No position

Anthropic valued higher than OpenAI in 2026?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $384.38
Potential profit: $384.38
User PnL: -$50

Yes position

Will any other model have the best AI model on May 30, 2026?

Ends May 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $270.48
Potential profit: $270.48
User PnL: -$50

Yes position

Epstein suicide note released by May 31?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $226.7
Potential profit: $226.7
User PnL: -$50

Yes position

Will the next Claude Opus 4.8 model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score between 1510 and 1520?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $207.1
Potential profit: $207.1
User PnL: -$20

Yes position

Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?

Implied probability: 0.6%
Current value: $0.98
Potential payout: $178.57
Potential profit: $177.59
Multiplier: 181.82x
User PnL: -$49.02

Yes position

Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.5T and $3.0T at market close on IPO day?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $146.15
Potential profit: $146.15
User PnL: -$29.31

OpenAI position

Will Anthropic or OpenAI IPO first?

Ends Dec 31, 2027

Implied probability: 25%
Current value: $34.18
Potential payout: $136.73
Potential profit: $102.55
Multiplier: 4.00x
User PnL: $4.18

Yes position

Will an Anthropic Claude model score at least 55% on Humanity’s Last Exam?

Implied probability: 3%
Current value: $3.79
Potential payout: $126.18
Potential profit: $122.4
Multiplier: 33.33x
User PnL: -$16.21

Yes position

Will OpenAI GPT score at least 50% on Humanity’s Last Exam?

Implied probability: 12.5%
Current value: $14.2
Potential payout: $113.64
Potential profit: $99.43
Multiplier: 8.00x
User PnL: -$35.8

Yes position

Will Anthropic have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?

Implied probability: 13.8%
Current value: $14.06
Potential payout: $102.28
Potential profit: $88.22
Multiplier: 7.27x
User PnL: -$10.94

Yes position

Gemini 4.0 released by June 30, 2026?

Implied probability: 0.5%
Current value: $0.5
Potential payout: $100
Potential profit: $99.5
Multiplier: 200.00x
User PnL: -$9.5

Yes position

Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election?

Ends Nov 7, 2028

Implied probability: 15.3%
Current value: $15.25
Potential payout: $99.99
Potential profit: $84.74
Multiplier: 6.56x
User PnL: -$1.45

Resolved Context

Closed positions

Yes position

Will TISZA win 54%+ of the national list votes in the 2026 Hungarian Parliamentary election?

Ends Apr 12, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $399.55

Yes position

Hungary Election: TISZA wins a constitutional majority?

Ends Apr 12, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $250.77

Yes position

Will King Charles say "Crown" or "Prince" during the joint meeting of Congress?

Ends Apr 28, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $178.81

Yes position

Gemini 3.5 released by May 31?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $169.5

No position

Tamas Sulyok out as President of Hungary by June 30?

Implied probability: 95%
Multiplier: 1.05x
User PnL: $151.51

No position

Will Anthropic’s valuation hit (HIGH) $1.1T by June 30?

Ends Jul 1, 2026

Implied probability: 26.5%
Multiplier: 3.77x
User PnL: $123.48

Yes position

Will King Charles say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during the joint meeting of Congress?

Ends Apr 28, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $75.92

Yes position

Will Trump say "Normandy" during King Charles visit?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $59.2

Yes position

Gemini 3.5 released by June 30?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $51.77

Yes position

Will Goldman Sachs or any of its underwriting affiliates serve as the lead underwriter in SpaceX’s initial public offering?

Ends Dec 31, 2027

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $42.89

No position

Will Trump say "NATO" during King Charles visit?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $37.33

Yes position

Will ChatGPT be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on May 12?

Ends May 12, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $33.25

Yes position

Will the Bank of Israel decrease the Bank of Israel Interest Rate after the May decision?

Ends May 25, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $31.64

Yes position

Will Powell say "Data Center" during April press conference?

Ends Apr 29, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $30.7

No position

Will the next Claude Opus 4.8 model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score between 1480 and 1490?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $30.65

Yes position

Will White House post 180-199 posts from May 12 to May 19, 2026?

Ends May 19, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $28.76

Yes position

Will there be exactly 1 earthquake of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from May 11 - 17?

Ends May 17, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $23.89

Yes position

Will any Anthropic Claude model score at least 50% on the FrontierMath Exam?

Ends Feb 28, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $16.6

No position

Will Trump say "Immigration" or "Immigrant" during King Charles visit?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $15.96

No position

Will Trump say "Hottest" during King Charles visit?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $15.43

Yes position

Will Khamenei post 0-4 posts from May 12 to May 19, 2026?

Ends May 19, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $12.08

No position

Will Meta Platforms, Inc. (META) hit (LOW) $580 in May?

Ends Jun 1, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $11.82

Yes position

Will "Choosin' Texas - Ella Langley" be the #1 song on US Spotify this week?

Ends May 15, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $9.42

No position

Will Trump say "Obliterated" or "Obliteration" during King Charles visit?