No position
Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2027- Implied probability
- 85%
- Current value
- $3.67K
- Potential payout
- $4.32K
- Potential profit
- $648
- Multiplier
- 1.18x
- User PnL
- $1.51K
Polymarket Trader
tomoaki
@tomoaki0252
0x913892716fee505547df676d539197e461770690
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $4.38K
- Realized PnL
- $970.84
- Win rate
- 100%
- Open positions
- 5
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
Yes position
Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2027- Implied probability
- 15%
- Current value
- $648
- Potential payout
- $4.32K
- Potential profit
- $3.67K
- Multiplier
- 6.67x
- User PnL
- -$1.51K
Yes position
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 3.8%
- Current value
- $56.25
- Potential payout
- $1.5K
- Potential profit
- $1.44K
- Multiplier
- 26.67x
- User PnL
- -$86.25
Yes position
Will the Ecologist Green Party of Mexico (PVEM) win the most seats in the 2027 Mexico legislative election?
Ends Jun 6, 2027- Implied probability
- 0.3%
- Current value
- $1.95
- Potential payout
- $779.6
- Potential profit
- $777.65
- Multiplier
- 400.00x
- User PnL
- -$2.77
Yes position
Will the Labor Party (PT) win the most seats in the 2027 Mexico legislative election?
Ends Jun 6, 2027- Implied probability
- 0.3%
- Current value
- $0.2
- Potential payout
- $81.02
- Potential profit
- $80.82
- Multiplier
- 400.00x
- User PnL
- -$0.04
Resolved Context
Closed positions
Yes position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?
Ends Jun 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $144.93
No position
QatarEnergy announces/resumes LNG production in Qatar by April 30?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $144
Yes position
Trump declassifies new UFO files by May 31?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $111
No position
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-25?
Ends Apr 25, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $88.99
Yes position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $62.75
Yes position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026?
Ends Jun 7, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $59.99
Yes position
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.2%
- Multiplier
- 666.67x
- User PnL
- $49.04
Yes position
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13?
Ends Jun 13, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $36
Yes position
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.2%
- Multiplier
- 666.67x
- User PnL
- $29.44
No position
Will claude-opus-4-6-thinking have the best AI model on April 10, 2026?
Ends Apr 10, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $27.54
No position
Will Soldier Boy die in "The Boys: Season 5"?
Ends May 20, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $26.17
Yes position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $25.64
Yes position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?
Ends May 26, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $24
Yes position
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?
Ends Jun 7, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.3%
- Multiplier
- 333.33x
- User PnL
- $22.02
Yes position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 1.6%
- Multiplier
- 62.50x
- User PnL
- $17.73
Yes position
Superform FDV above $50M one day after launch?
Ends Jan 1, 2027- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $15
No position
Will Ed Gallrein win the 2026 KY-04 Republican Primary Election by between 6% and 9%?
Ends May 19, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.3%
- User PnL
- $14.2
No position
US strikes Iran by February 26, 2026?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $13.6
No position
US strikes Iran by February 24, 2026?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $11.6
No position
Russia strike impacts Kyiv municipality during week of March 2, 2026?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $10.84
No position
Will Jon Rothstein tweet "This is March" ≤ 40 times during March Madness?
Ends Apr 7, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $9.36
No position
NCAA Tournament: No. 16 seed to pull off an upset?
Ends Apr 7, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $9.14
No position
Will US crude oil reserves fall to 200M by May 1?
Ends May 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $9.06
No position
Will US crude oil reserves fall to 250M by May 1?
Ends May 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $8.8
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?Yes 0.9% 500 shares
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?Yes 1.1% 500 shares
- Will Taj Bradley strike out the most batters during the 2026 MLB regular season?Yes 0.3% 131 shares
- Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026?Yes 0.7% 899.99 shares
- Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?Yes 3.4% 544.53 shares
- Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?Yes 0.5% 2,000 shares
- Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?Yes 3.8% 7.43 shares
- Starmer out by June 22, 2026?Yes 19% 52.92 shares
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?Yes 49% 5 shares
- US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 14, 2026?Yes 1.3% 0.2 shares
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?Yes 16% 1,500 shares
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?Yes 3.5% 0.59 shares