Polymarket Trader

topwardaddy

0x919d8d0990940ed9afbbc321a4869362b26d60c1

Public profile Partial data Delayed section

Open value: $0
Realized PnL: $17.37
Win rate: 87.5%
Open positions: 16
Closed positions: 24
Markets traded: Unavailable

Current Predictions

Open positions

Heroic position

Dota 2: GamerLegion vs Heroic (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage

Ends Feb 3, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $1K
Potential profit: $1K
User PnL: -$1

No position

Odds of Khamenei being out as Supreme Leader by March 31 over 15% in February?

Ends Feb 28, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $1K
Potential profit: $1K
User PnL: -$1

Bebop position

Counter-Strike: Bebop vs QUAZAR (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #15 Play-In Group B

Ends Feb 3, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $1K
Potential profit: $1K
User PnL: -$1

Yes position

Will "Nemesis" be the top global Netflix show this week?

Ends May 19, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $13.42
Potential profit: $13.42
User PnL: -$2

MOUZ position

Dota 2: MOUZ vs OG (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage

Ends Feb 3, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $12.5
Potential profit: $12.5
User PnL: -$1

Yes position

Will Tottenham Hotspur FC win on 2026-05-19?

Ends May 19, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $10
Potential profit: $10
User PnL: -$1

Down position

Apple (AAPL) Up or Down on February 2?

Ends Feb 2, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $10
Potential profit: $10
User PnL: -$1

Yes position

Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from January 30 to February 6, 2026?

Ends Feb 6, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $7.14
Potential profit: $7.14
User PnL: -$1

Yes position

Exact Score: Chelsea FC 2 - 0 Tottenham Hotspur FC?

Ends May 19, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $5.88
Potential profit: $5.88
User PnL: -$1

Yes position

Will Russia enter Kindrashivka by February 28?

Ends Feb 28, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $5
Potential profit: $5
User PnL: -$1

Yes position

Will Russia enter Rizdvianka by February 28, 2026?

Ends Feb 28, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $4.76
Potential profit: $4.76
User PnL: -$1

Golden Knights position

Spread: Golden Knights (-1.5)

Ends Feb 1, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $2.27
Potential profit: $2.27
User PnL: -$1

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - February 5, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET

Ends Feb 5, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $2.24
Potential profit: $2.24
User PnL: -$0.98

Yes position

Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on February 3?

Ends Feb 3, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $1.85
Potential profit: $1.85
User PnL: -$1

Golden Knights position

Kraken vs. Golden Knights

Ends Feb 1, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $1.56
Potential profit: $1.56
User PnL: -$1

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - February 5, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET

Ends Feb 5, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $1.23
Potential profit: $1.23
User PnL: -$0.99

Resolved Context

Closed positions

Yes position

Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from February 6 to February 13, 2026?

Ends Feb 13, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $6.01

Yes position

Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from February 2 to February 4, 2026?

Ends Feb 4, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $2.33

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - February 5, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET

Ends Feb 5, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $2.05

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - February 5, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET

Ends Feb 5, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.26

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - February 5, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET

Ends Feb 5, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.01

Yes position

Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from January 30 to February 6, 2026?

Ends Feb 6, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.76

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - February 5, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET

Ends Feb 5, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.67

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - February 3, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET

Ends Feb 3, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.58

Down position

XRP Up or Down - February 5, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET

Ends Feb 5, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $0.53

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET

Ends May 19, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $0.5

Natus Vincere position

Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs Aurora (BO3) - DreamLeague Playoffs

Ends May 19, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $0.48

No position

Will Russia enter Sofiivka by February 28?

Ends Jan 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $0.37

Up position

XRP Up or Down - February 5, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET

Ends Feb 5, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.32

Yes position

Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from February 6 to February 13, 2026?

Ends Feb 13, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $0.16

No position

Will the government shutdown last 5 days or more?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.14

Yes position

Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from February 6 to February 13, 2026?

Ends Feb 13, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $0.08

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - February 5, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET

Ends Feb 5, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.07

Yes position

Will MrBeast's next video get between 60 and 70 million views on week 1?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.03

Yes position

Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from February 6 to February 13, 2026?

Ends Feb 13, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $0.03

No position

Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 90.5%
Multiplier: 1.10x
User PnL: $0.02

Yes position

Will no next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom be appointed in 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0.2%
Multiplier: 666.67x
User PnL: $0

No position

Starmer out by May 31, 2026?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: -$0

No position

Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,300 in May?

Ends Jun 1, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: -$0.01

Under position

Wild vs. Oilers: O/U 6.5

Ends Feb 1, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$0.02

Trades

Recent trades

Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.

Will MrBeast's next video get between 60 and 70 million views on week 1?

Yes 64% 1.61 shares
Iran closes its airspace by May 31?

No 51% 1.61 shares
Will Andy Burnham be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?

Yes 46.9% 1.93 shares
Will MrBeast's next video get between 70 and 80 million views on week 1?

Yes 31% 2.85 shares
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-19?

Yes 0.5% 3.7 shares
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET

Up 87% 1.72 shares
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET

Up 58% 1.72 shares
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC win on 2026-05-19?

Yes 10% 10 shares
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs Aurora (BO3) - DreamLeague Playoffs

Natus Vincere 71% 2.08 shares
Exact Score: Chelsea FC 2 - 0 Tottenham Hotspur FC?

Yes 17% 5.88 shares
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-19?

Yes 27% 3.7 shares
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?

No 82% 2.46 shares