No position
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 90.5%
- Current value
- $3.57K
- Potential payout
- $3.95K
- Potential profit
- $375.01
- Multiplier
- 1.10x
- User PnL
- $394.5
Polymarket Trader
frosique1
0x91c7f544a6efad9825185c2bca1f1a95cc92b576
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $13.39K
- Realized PnL
- $5.73K
- Win rate
- 100%
- Open positions
- 24
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
Yes position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 87.5%
- Current value
- $3.21K
- Potential payout
- $3.67K
- Potential profit
- $458.95
- Multiplier
- 1.14x
- User PnL
- $91.06
Yes position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 47.5%
- Current value
- $1.03K
- Potential payout
- $2.18K
- Potential profit
- $1.14K
- Multiplier
- 2.11x
- User PnL
- -$427.69
Yes position
Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
Ends Nov 7, 2028- Implied probability
- 1.6%
- Current value
- $22.78
- Potential payout
- $1.47K
- Potential profit
- $1.45K
- Multiplier
- 64.52x
- User PnL
- -$7.95
No position
US strike on Cuba by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 49.5%
- Current value
- $489.77
- Potential payout
- $989.43
- Potential profit
- $499.66
- Multiplier
- 2.02x
- User PnL
- -$176.34
No position
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.2%
- Current value
- $770.4
- Potential payout
- $777
- Potential profit
- $6.6
- User PnL
- $66.77
No position
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.5%
- Current value
- $674.42
- Potential payout
- $678.15
- Potential profit
- $3.73
- User PnL
- $28.95
Yes position
Nothing Ever Happens: 2026
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 80.5%
- Current value
- $439.26
- Potential payout
- $545.67
- Potential profit
- $106.4
- Multiplier
- 1.24x
- User PnL
- $75.66
No position
Iran leadership change by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 84.5%
- Current value
- $423.35
- Potential payout
- $501
- Potential profit
- $77.65
- Multiplier
- 1.18x
- User PnL
- $79.31
Yes position
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?
Ends Nov 3, 2026- Implied probability
- 80.5%
- Current value
- $382.38
- Potential payout
- $475
- Potential profit
- $92.63
- Multiplier
- 1.24x
- User PnL
- $9.47
Yes position
Will Zelenskyy and Putin not meet before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 80%
- Current value
- $374.61
- Potential payout
- $468.26
- Potential profit
- $93.65
- Multiplier
- 1.25x
- User PnL
- $15.34
Yes position
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Ends Jul 20, 2026- Implied probability
- 6.4%
- Current value
- $25.28
- Potential payout
- $398.12
- Potential profit
- $372.84
- Multiplier
- 15.75x
- User PnL
- $3.12
No position
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House
Ends Nov 3, 2026- Implied probability
- 81.5%
- Current value
- $273
- Potential payout
- $335.01
- Potential profit
- $62.01
- Multiplier
- 1.23x
- User PnL
- $3.73
No position
Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?
Ends Nov 3, 2026- Implied probability
- 80.5%
- Current value
- $269.67
- Potential payout
- $334.99
- Potential profit
- $65.32
- Multiplier
- 1.24x
- User PnL
- $5.26
No position
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 by December 31, 2026?
Ends Jan 1, 2027- Implied probability
- 88.5%
- Current value
- $273.51
- Potential payout
- $309.05
- Potential profit
- $35.54
- Multiplier
- 1.13x
- User PnL
- $79.71
Yes position
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Ends Jul 20, 2026- Implied probability
- 3.3%
- Current value
- $9.75
- Potential payout
- $300
- Potential profit
- $290.25
- Multiplier
- 30.77x
- User PnL
- $3.75
No position
Will the Republicans win the Maine Senate race in 2026?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 62.5%
- Current value
- $162.49
- Potential payout
- $259.98
- Potential profit
- $97.49
- Multiplier
- 1.60x
- User PnL
- -$6.5
No position
Iran leadership change by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.1%
- Current value
- $250.6
- Potential payout
- $253
- Potential profit
- $2.4
- User PnL
- $36.11
No position
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2026?
Ends Jan 1, 2027- Implied probability
- 85.5%
- Current value
- $213.75
- Potential payout
- $250
- Potential profit
- $36.25
- Multiplier
- 1.17x
- User PnL
- $31.75
Yes position
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Ends Jul 20, 2026- Implied probability
- 13.7%
- Current value
- $32.08
- Potential payout
- $235
- Potential profit
- $202.92
- Multiplier
- 7.33x
- User PnL
- -$3.89
No position
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 86.5%
- Current value
- $200.68
- Potential payout
- $232
- Potential profit
- $31.32
- Multiplier
- 1.16x
- User PnL
- -$4.48
Yes position
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Ends Jul 20, 2026- Implied probability
- 18.5%
- Current value
- $42.44
- Potential payout
- $230
- Potential profit
- $187.57
- Multiplier
- 5.42x
- User PnL
- $3.24
No position
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 98%
- Current value
- $225.29
- Potential payout
- $230
- Potential profit
- $4.72
- Multiplier
- 1.02x
- User PnL
- $6.51
Yes position
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
Ends Nov 7, 2028- Implied probability
- 5%
- Current value
- $10.05
- Potential payout
- $202.99
- Potential profit
- $192.95
- Multiplier
- 20.20x
- User PnL
- $2.06
Resolved Context
Closed positions
No position
Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 by December 31, 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $631.45
No position
Will Bitcoin reach $140,000 by December 31, 2025?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $437.41
No position
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 by December 31, 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $418.32
No position
France, UK, or Germany military action against Iran by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $415.63
No position
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by January 31, 2026?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $403.47
Yes position
Will Russia capture Yablunivka before August?
Ends Aug 1, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $285.69
No position
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.8%
- User PnL
- $284.56
No position
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $255.84
No position
Will the Iranian regime fall in 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $243.38
No position
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by February 28?
Ends Feb 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $213.68
No position
Maduro out in 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $201.82
No position
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $197.02
Yes position
Will Putin meet with Trump by September 30?
Ends Sep 30, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $172.05
Yes position
Will Hamas release any more hostages by October 31?
Ends Oct 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $164.32
Yes position
US x Venezuela military engagement by March 31, 2026?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $160.08
No position
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by November 30?
Ends Nov 30, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $155.94
No position
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $155.65
Yes position
US x Iran ceasefire by May 31?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $152.98
No position
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $152.18
N
No position
Will Trump say "Skedaddle" in February?
Ends Feb 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $135.06
Yes position
US x Venezuela military engagement by January 31, 2026?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $128.6
No position
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $120.75
No position
Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 by December 31, 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $120.01
Yes position
Will Liam rank #1 among boy names on the SSA’s official list for 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $119.45
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?Yes 59% 70 shares
- Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30?No 99.4% 110.97 shares
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?Yes 90% 90 shares
- US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30?No 99.5% 42.5 shares
- US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31?No 87% 100 shares
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?Yes 55% 180 shares
- Will Iran close its airspace by August 31?No 13% 94.62 shares
- Will Iran close its airspace by July 31?No 15% 153 shares
- Will Iran close its airspace by June 30?No 19% 103.05 shares
- US strike on Cuba by December 31?No 47% 77 shares
- Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?No 72% 50.13 shares
- Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by June 30?No 96.5% 100 shares