Polymarket Trader

0x926d...a15b

0x926db63cf3a5f202d7a40736dc19d8e6536aa15b

Public profile Partial data Delayed sectionDelayed section

Open value: $44.74
Realized PnL: $788.43
Win rate: 100%
Open positions: 22
Closed positions: 24
Markets traded: Unavailable

Current Predictions

Open positions

Yes position

Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jul 20, 2026

Implied probability: 2.8%
Current value: $1.85
Potential payout: $67.33
Potential profit: $65.48
Multiplier: 36.36x
User PnL: $0.84

No position

Will the next model released by OpenAI debut at a score of at least 1450?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 27.5%
Current value: $8.59
Potential payout: $31.24
Potential profit: $22.65
Multiplier: 3.64x
User PnL: $2.53

Yes position

Will Google have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?

Ends Jul 31, 2026

Implied probability: 10.1%
Current value: $2.53
Potential payout: $25.2
Potential profit: $22.67
Multiplier: 9.95x
User PnL: -$0.5

Yes position

Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jul 20, 2026

Implied probability: 10.4%
Current value: $2.27
Potential payout: $21.96
Potential profit: $19.68
Multiplier: 9.66x
User PnL: -$0.76

Yes position

Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?

Ends Dec 6, 2026

Implied probability: 2.9%
Current value: $0.49
Potential payout: $17.12
Potential profit: $16.63
Multiplier: 35.09x
User PnL: -$0.52

Yes position

Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?

Ends Dec 6, 2026

Implied probability: 1.8%
Current value: $0.17
Potential payout: $9.71
Potential profit: $9.54
Multiplier: 57.14x
User PnL: -$0.84

Yes position

Will Google have the #1 AI model at the end of July 2026?

Ends Jul 31, 2026

Implied probability: 11.5%
Current value: $0.97
Potential payout: $8.42
Potential profit: $7.45
Multiplier: 8.70x
User PnL: -$0.04

No position

Will the next model released by OpenAI debut at a score of at least 1470?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 36.9%
Current value: $2.83
Potential payout: $7.68
Potential profit: $4.84
Multiplier: 2.71x
User PnL: $0.81

Yes position

Will the next model released by OpenAI debut at a score of at least 1450?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 72.5%
Current value: $4.91
Potential payout: $6.77
Potential profit: $1.86
Multiplier: 1.38x
User PnL: -$0.14

No position

Will Portugal reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 68%
Current value: $3.82
Potential payout: $5.61
Potential profit: $1.8
Multiplier: 1.47x
User PnL: $0.79

Yes position

US x Cuba economic deal by June 30, 2026?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 1.1%
Current value: $0.06
Potential payout: $5.38
Potential profit: $5.32
Multiplier: 90.91x
User PnL: -$0.91

No position

Will Trump be impeached by end of 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 95.5%
Current value: $4.24
Potential payout: $4.44
Potential profit: $0.2
Multiplier: 1.05x
User PnL: $0.2

Yes position

Will the next model released by OpenAI debut at a score of at least 1470?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 63.1%
Current value: $2.44
Potential payout: $3.87
Potential profit: $1.43
Multiplier: 1.58x
User PnL: $0.42

No position

Will Abigail Anderson be one of Taylor Swift's bridesmaids?

Ends Jun 30, 2027

Implied probability: 18.5%
Current value: $0.65
Potential payout: $3.53
Potential profit: $2.87
Multiplier: 5.41x
User PnL: -$0.02

Yes position

Will no company have an AI model hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 77.5%
Current value: $1.33
Potential payout: $1.71
Potential profit: $0.39
Multiplier: 1.29x
User PnL: $0.32

No position

Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 86.5%
Current value: $1.32
Potential payout: $1.52
Potential profit: $0.21
Multiplier: 1.16x
User PnL: $0.27

No position

Will the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1500?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 76.5%
Current value: $1
Potential payout: $1.31
Potential profit: $0.31
Multiplier: 1.31x
User PnL: -$0.01

No position

Will any AI model reach a Chatbot Arena score of at least 1550 by December 31?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 81%
Current value: $1.02
Potential payout: $1.26
Potential profit: $0.24
Multiplier: 1.23x
User PnL: $0.01

No position

Will GameStop acquire eBay?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 86.5%
Current value: $1.02
Potential payout: $1.17
Potential profit: $0.16
Multiplier: 1.16x
User PnL: $0.01

No position

US x Cuba economic deal by June 30, 2026?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 98.9%
Current value: $1.16
Potential payout: $1.17
Potential profit: $0.01
Multiplier: 1.01x
User PnL: $0.15

Argentina position

Argentina vs. Cabo Verde: Team to Advance

Ends Jul 3, 2026

Implied probability: 91.5%
Current value: $1
Potential payout: $1.1
Potential profit: $0.09
Multiplier: 1.09x
User PnL: -$0.01

No position

Will Trump speak to Reza Pahlavi in June?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 99.6%
Current value: $1.07
Potential payout: $1.07
Potential profit: $0
User PnL: $0.06

Resolved Context

Closed positions

Yes position

US x Iran ceasefire by April 15?

Ends Apr 15, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $148.5

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET

Ends Apr 25, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $92.49

BNK FEARX position

LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs BNK FEARX - Game 2 Winner

Ends Apr 10, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $43.56

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET

Ends May 1, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $43.47

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 15°C or higher on April 8?

Ends Apr 8, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $37.35

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET

Ends Apr 28, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $31.26

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 3AM ET

Ends Apr 12, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $28.94

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET

Ends Apr 26, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $26.38

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET

Ends Apr 27, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $26.3

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET

Ends Apr 7, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $24.25

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET

Ends May 1, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $23.75

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET

Ends Apr 25, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $22.97

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET

Ends May 3, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $22.26

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET

Ends Apr 27, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $22.2

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET

Ends May 3, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $21.44

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET

Ends Apr 25, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $21.09

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET

Ends Apr 10, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $20.33

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET

Ends Apr 10, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $19.92

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET

Ends Apr 7, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $19.19

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET

Ends Apr 25, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $18.83

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET

Ends Apr 12, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $18.7

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET

Ends Apr 9, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $18.65

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET

Ends May 2, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $18.42

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET

Ends Apr 9, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $18.19

Trades

Recent trades

Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.

Will the next model released by OpenAI debut at a score of at least 1470?

Yes 74.5% 1.36 shares
Will the next model released by OpenAI debut at a score of at least 1470?

No 48.2% 2.1 shares
Will the next model released by OpenAI debut at a score of at least 1450?

Yes 76% 1.33 shares
Will the next model released by OpenAI debut at a score of at least 1450?

Yes 71% 1.42 shares
Will the next model released by OpenAI debut at a score of at least 1450?

Yes 65% 1.55 shares
Will the next model released by OpenAI debut at a score of at least 1450?

No 25% 4.04 shares
Will the next model released by OpenAI debut at a score of at least 1450?

Yes 81% 1.25 shares
Will the next model released by OpenAI debut at a score of at least 1450?

No 20% 5.05 shares
Will the next model released by OpenAI debut at a score of at least 1450?

No 20% 5.05 shares
Will the next model released by OpenAI debut at a score of at least 1450?

No 20% 5.05 shares
Will the next model released by OpenAI debut at a score of at least 1450?

Yes 83% 1.22 shares
Will the next model released by OpenAI debut at a score of at least 1450?

No 19% 5.32 shares