Basdon

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $1K
Potential profit: $1K
User PnL: -$1

Yes position

Bank of England rate hike in 2026?

Implied probability: 44%
Current value: $346.03
Potential payout: $786.42
Potential profit: $440.4
Multiplier: 2.27x
User PnL: -$305.36

Yes position

Will Paramount close Warner Bros acquisition?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 80.5%
Current value: $400.97
Potential payout: $498.1
Potential profit: $97.13
Multiplier: 1.24x
User PnL: -$33.78

Yes position

Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the March 2026 meeting?

Ends Mar 18, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $255.56
Potential profit: $255.56
User PnL: -$15

Yes position

Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the March 2026 meeting?

Ends Mar 18, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $125
Potential profit: $125
User PnL: -$1

Yes position

Peter Mandelson charged by March 31?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $57.26
Potential profit: $57.26
User PnL: -$14.8

Yes position

No-Confidence Vote against Starmer by June 30?

Implied probability: 5.5%
Current value: $2.75
Potential payout: $50
Potential profit: $47.25
Multiplier: 18.18x
User PnL: -$1.75

Yes position

Will Trump send Tomahawk to Ukraine by March 31?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $46.52
Potential profit: $46.52
User PnL: -$1

Yes position

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $30.3
Potential profit: $30.3
User PnL: -$1

Yes position

US recession by end of 2026?

Ends Jan 31, 2027

Implied probability: 11.5%
Current value: $2.4
Potential payout: $20.83
Potential profit: $18.44
Multiplier: 8.70x
User PnL: -$2.6

Yes position

Prince Andrew charged by March 31?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $18.75
Potential profit: $18.75
User PnL: -$3

Yes position

Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of March?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $18.52
Potential profit: $18.52
User PnL: -$10

Yes position

Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia before 2027?

Implied probability: 14.5%
Current value: $2.5
Potential payout: $17.24
Potential profit: $14.74
Multiplier: 6.90x
User PnL: -$2.5

Yes position

Will Iran claim responsibility for Oslo Embassy attack?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $16.95
Potential profit: $16.95
User PnL: -$1

Yes position

Prince Andrew sentenced to prison?

Implied probability: 7%
Current value: $1.08
Potential payout: $15.38
Potential profit: $14.31
Multiplier: 14.29x
User PnL: -$0.92

Yes position

Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of March?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $15.15
Potential profit: $15.15
User PnL: -$10

No position

Jeffrey Epstein confirmed to be alive before 2027?

Implied probability: 96.7%
Current value: $14.5
Potential payout: $15
Potential profit: $0.5
Multiplier: 1.03x
User PnL: $0.51

Yes position

Starmer out by June 30, 2026?

Implied probability: 56.5%
Current value: $5.88
Potential payout: $10.42
Potential profit: $4.53
Multiplier: 1.77x
User PnL: $0.88

Yes position

US forces enter Iran by March 31?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $10.4
Potential profit: $10.4
User PnL: -$3

Yes position

Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by April 30?

Ends Apr 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $10
Potential profit: $10
User PnL: -$3.9

Yes position

Will Ex-Prince Andrew Testify to Congress about Epstein?

Implied probability: 5.2%
Current value: $0.43
Potential payout: $8.34
Potential profit: $7.9
Multiplier: 19.23x
User PnL: -$0.07

Yes position

US announces military support of Kurds in Iran by March 31?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $8.2
Potential profit: $8.2
User PnL: -$5

Yes position

US forces enter Iran by March 14?

Ends Mar 1, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $7.69
Potential profit: $7.69
User PnL: -$1

Yes position

Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?

Ends Nov 7, 2028

Implied probability: 23.5%
Current value: $1.71
Potential payout: $7.27
Potential profit: $5.57
Multiplier: 4.26x
User PnL: -$0.29

Resolved Context

Closed positions

Yes position

Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $90 by end of June?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $9.96

Yes position

Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of June?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $8.63

Yes position

Will the Court Force Trump to Refund Tariffs?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $6.23

Yes position

Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of June?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $3.5

Yes position

US forces enter Iran by December 31?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $3.25

Yes position

Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $80 by end of June?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $2.97

Yes position

Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by June 30?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.75

Yes position

Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.07

Yes position

Starmer out by February 28, 2026?

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $0.07

Yes position

Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next leader out before 2027?

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $0

Yes position

Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan be the next leader out before 2027?

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$1

Yes position

Will Donald Trump be the next leader out before 2027?

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$1

No position

Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by June 30?

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$1

Yes position

Will Viktor Orbán be the next leader out before 2027?

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$1

Yes position

Will Vladimir Putin be the next leader out before 2027?

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$1

Yes position

Will Matt Goodwin – Reform win the Gorton and Denton by-election?

Ends Feb 26, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$2

Yes position

Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027?

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$5

Yes position

Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy be the next leader out before 2027?