sg775

Implied probability: 2.8%
Current value: $11.79
Potential payout: $428.58
Potential profit: $416.79
Multiplier: 36.36x
User PnL: -$3.21

Yes position

Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Implied probability: 14.9%
Current value: $52.41
Potential payout: $352.94
Potential profit: $300.53
Multiplier: 6.73x
User PnL: $22.41

No position

US x Iran permanent peace deal by October 31, 2026?

Ends Oct 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $306.12
Potential profit: $306.12
User PnL: -$15

No position

US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026?

Ends Aug 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $301.2
Potential profit: $301.2
User PnL: -$15

Yes position

Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?

Ends Nov 7, 2028

Implied probability: 4.8%
Current value: $13.58
Potential payout: $285.87
Potential profit: $272.29
Multiplier: 21.05x
User PnL: -$1.42

No position

Will USA win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jun 27, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $272.73
Potential profit: $272.73
User PnL: -$30

No position

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026?

Ends Jun 21, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $238.8
Potential profit: $238.8
User PnL: -$27.41

Yes position

Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?

Implied probability: 1.2%
Current value: $1.97
Potential payout: $163.75
Potential profit: $161.79
Multiplier: 83.33x
User PnL: -$28.03

Yes position

Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Implied probability: 4.6%
Current value: $7.18
Potential payout: $157.78
Potential profit: $150.6
Multiplier: 21.98x
User PnL: -$1.31

Yes position

Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Implied probability: 21.7%
Current value: $33.48
Potential payout: $154.64
Potential profit: $121.16
Multiplier: 4.62x
User PnL: $3.48

Yes position

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?

Implied probability: 5.3%
Current value: $7.7
Potential payout: $145.35
Potential profit: $137.65
Multiplier: 18.87x
User PnL: -$35.41

Yes position

Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?

Implied probability: 33.5%
Current value: $35.54
Potential payout: $106.1
Potential profit: $70.56
Multiplier: 2.99x
User PnL: $5.84

Yes position

Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30?

Implied probability: 1.3%
Current value: $1.17
Potential payout: $89.88
Potential profit: $88.71
Multiplier: 76.92x
User PnL: -$6.53

Yes position

Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026?

Ends Jul 31, 2026

Implied probability: 3.3%
Current value: $2.44
Potential payout: $75
Potential profit: $72.56
Multiplier: 30.77x
User PnL: -$12.56

No position

Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027?

Implied probability: 9%
Current value: $4.89
Potential payout: $54.29
Potential profit: $49.4
Multiplier: 11.11x
User PnL: -$10.11

No position

Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $44.78
Potential profit: $44.78
User PnL: -$30

Over position

Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: 1st Half O/U 0.5

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $34.09
Potential profit: $34.09
User PnL: -$15

Yes position

Will Trump and Putin not meet?

Implied probability: 62.5%
Current value: $15.12
Potential payout: $24.19
Potential profit: $9.07
Multiplier: 1.60x
User PnL: $0.12

Yes position

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?

Ends Jul 31, 2026

Implied probability: 47.5%
Current value: $11.17
Potential payout: $23.52
Potential profit: $12.35
Multiplier: 2.11x
User PnL: -$3.83

No position

2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House

Ends Nov 3, 2026

Implied probability: 62.5%
Current value: $14.65
Potential payout: $23.44
Potential profit: $8.79
Multiplier: 1.60x
User PnL: -$0.35

No position

Will Trump say "Mutilation" during Faith & Freedom Coalition Conference?

Ends Jun 26, 2026

Implied probability: 82.5%
Current value: $18.94
Potential payout: $22.97
Potential profit: $4.03
Multiplier: 1.21x
User PnL: $3.94

Scotland position

ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Sri Lanka vs Scotland

Ends Jul 3, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $19.85
Potential profit: $19.85
User PnL: -$15

No position

Will Likud win fewer than 20 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?

Ends Oct 27, 2026

Implied probability: 76.2%
Current value: $14.3
Potential payout: $18.77
Potential profit: $4.48
Multiplier: 1.31x
User PnL: -$0.7

No position

Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by December 31?

Implied probability: 86.5%
Current value: $16.22
Potential payout: $18.75
Potential profit: $2.53
Multiplier: 1.16x
User PnL: $1.22

Resolved Context

Closed positions

Justin Gaethje position

UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Card)

Ends Jun 15, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $13.19

Yes position

US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026?

Ends Jun 16, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $5.26

Yes position

Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $5.25

Yes position

Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Implied probability: 2.6%
Multiplier: 39.22x
User PnL: $3.64

Yes position

US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?

Ends Jun 15, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $3.56

No position

Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?

Implied probability: 70.5%
Multiplier: 1.42x
User PnL: $3.55

Yes position

Starmer out by December 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $2.85

No position

Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?

Implied probability: 98.7%
Multiplier: 1.01x
User PnL: $2.67

Yes position

Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Implied probability: 7.7%
Multiplier: 13.07x
User PnL: $1.9

No position

Will Likud win 25-29 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?

Ends Oct 27, 2026

Implied probability: 74.5%
Multiplier: 1.34x
User PnL: $1.88

No position

Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?

Ends Jun 21, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.84

No position

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 73.5%
Multiplier: 1.36x
User PnL: $1.1

No position

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by October 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 84.5%
Multiplier: 1.18x
User PnL: $0

Yes position

Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0

Yes position

US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0

No position

US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?

Ends Jun 15, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $0

No position

Australia to win the second half?

Ends Jun 19, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0

No position

Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals

Ends Jun 26, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0

Over position

Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 2.5

Ends Jun 24, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0

Yes position

Starmer out by June 30, 2026?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0

No position

Will Morocco win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jun 27, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0

Yes position

Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14?

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $0

Over position

Netherlands vs. Sweden: Sweden O/U 0.5

Ends Jun 20, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0

No position

Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14?