0x9317...5a5f

Implied probability: 0.1%
Current value: $0.03
Potential payout: $56.52
Potential profit: $56.49
Multiplier: 2000.00x
User PnL: -$13.48

No position

Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?

Ends Dec 6, 2026

Implied probability: 99.8%
Current value: $55.12
Potential payout: $55.26
Potential profit: $0.14
User PnL: $0.14

No position

Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026?

Ends Jul 31, 2026

Implied probability: 86.5%
Current value: $43.2
Potential payout: $49.94
Potential profit: $6.74
Multiplier: 1.16x
User PnL: -$0.25

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10PM ET

Ends Jun 19, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
Current value: $43.85
Potential payout: $43.87
Potential profit: $0.02
User PnL: $13.91

No position

Will Marco Rubio enter Iran by June 30?

Implied probability: 99%
Current value: $31.25
Potential payout: $31.58
Potential profit: $0.33
Multiplier: 1.01x
User PnL: $1.88

No position

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?

Implied probability: 85.5%
Current value: $21.65
Potential payout: $25.32
Potential profit: $3.67
Multiplier: 1.17x
User PnL: $1.65

No position

Will Pete Hegseth enter Iran by June 30?

Implied probability: 99.6%
Current value: $24.37
Potential payout: $24.48
Potential profit: $0.11
User PnL: $1.85

No position

Will any U.S. House member enter Iran by June 30?

Implied probability: 98.7%
Current value: $23.38
Potential payout: $23.7
Potential profit: $0.32
Multiplier: 1.01x
User PnL: $2.14

Yes position

Will Michael Bennet win the 2026 Colorado Governor Democratic primary election?

Implied probability: 68%
Current value: $14.93
Potential payout: $21.96
Potential profit: $7.03
Multiplier: 1.47x
User PnL: -$1.36

Yes position

Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?

Implied probability: 66.5%
Current value: $12.32
Potential payout: $18.52
Potential profit: $6.2
Multiplier: 1.50x
User PnL: $2.31

No position

Will Z.ai have the top AI model at the end of June 2026?

Implied probability: 99.9%
Current value: $13.14
Potential payout: $13.16
Potential profit: $0.02
User PnL: $0.39

No position

Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16?

Ends Jun 18, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
Current value: $12.92
Potential payout: $12.93
Potential profit: $0.01
User PnL: $0.91

No position

Will Jared Kushner enter Iran by June 30?

Implied probability: 99.3%
Current value: $11.75
Potential payout: $11.84
Potential profit: $0.09
User PnL: $0.86

No position

Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jul 20, 2026

Implied probability: 88.3%
Current value: $9.92
Potential payout: $11.24
Potential profit: $1.32
Multiplier: 1.13x
User PnL: -$0.08

No position

Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026?

Implied probability: 97.1%
Current value: $10.22
Potential payout: $10.53
Potential profit: $0.31
Multiplier: 1.03x
User PnL: $0.22

No position

Major meteor strike (10kt+) in 2026?

Implied probability: 87.5%
Current value: $8.75
Potential payout: $10
Potential profit: $1.25
Multiplier: 1.14x
User PnL: $1.05

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET

Ends Jun 19, 2026

Implied probability: 65.5%
Current value: $6.55
Potential payout: $10
Potential profit: $3.45
Multiplier: 1.53x
User PnL: -$2.65

No position

Will Russia invade another country in 2026?

Implied probability: 90.5%
Current value: $9.05
Potential payout: $10
Potential profit: $0.95
Multiplier: 1.10x
User PnL: $0.25

No position

Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jul 20, 2026

Implied probability: 97.7%
Current value: $9.77
Potential payout: $10
Potential profit: $0.23
Multiplier: 1.02x
User PnL: -$0.06

Yes position

Will Ricardo Belmont win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?

Ends Jun 7, 2026

Implied probability: 0.1%
Current value: $0.01
Potential payout: $10
Potential profit: $10
Multiplier: 2000.00x
User PnL: -$0.02

No position

Milei out as President of Argentina before 2027?

Implied probability: 93.4%
Current value: $9.34
Potential payout: $10
Potential profit: $0.66
Multiplier: 1.07x
User PnL: $0.3

No position

Cuban regime falls in 2026?

Implied probability: 80.5%
Current value: $7.75
Potential payout: $9.63
Potential profit: $1.88
Multiplier: 1.24x
User PnL: $1.47

No position

Will Tarcisio de Frietas qualify for Brazil's presidential runoff?

Ends Oct 4, 2026

Implied probability: 97.1%
Current value: $5.83
Potential payout: $6
Potential profit: $0.17
Multiplier: 1.03x
User PnL: $0.07

No position

Will Fernando Dias da Costa win the 2025 Guinea-Bissau presidential election?

Ends Nov 23, 2025

Implied probability: 99.4%
Current value: $4.97
Potential payout: $5
Potential profit: $0.03
User PnL: $2.56

Resolved Context

Closed positions

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET

Ends May 19, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $667.19

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET

Ends May 18, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $530.89

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $485.9

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $446

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET

Ends May 17, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $441.8

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET

Ends May 17, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $412.42

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $411.72

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $410.79

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET

Ends May 17, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $406.82

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $388.52

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $383.13

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET

Ends May 16, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $379.48

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $371.16

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET

Ends May 8, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $368.04

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $366.67

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET

Ends May 10, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $352.28

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET

Ends May 10, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $335.3

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET

Ends May 18, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $334.39

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $333.55

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $332.74

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET

Ends May 16, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $331.32

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET