Polymarket Trader

FredericM

@MartinFr39

0x93724e69d3b4ebe7c45c71a526e82613c59a5093

Public profile Partial data Delayed section

Open value: $208.57
Realized PnL: $285.76
Win rate: 100%
Open positions: 16
Closed positions: 24
Markets traded: Unavailable

Current Predictions

Open positions

Yes position

Will Donald Trump publicly insult Pam Bondi by June 30, 2026?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $1K
Potential profit: $1K
User PnL: -$1

Yes position

Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jul 20, 2026

Implied probability: 6.1%
Current value: $21.35
Potential payout: $350
Potential profit: $328.65
Multiplier: 16.39x
User PnL: -$7.4

Yes position

Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jul 20, 2026

Implied probability: 12.3%
Current value: $24.5
Potential payout: $200
Potential profit: $175.5
Multiplier: 8.16x
User PnL: -$8.5

Yes position

Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jul 20, 2026

Implied probability: 33.5%
Current value: $40.14
Potential payout: $119.99
Potential profit: $79.85
Multiplier: 2.99x
User PnL: $19.92

Yes position

Will France win on 2026-07-04?

Ends Jul 4, 2026

Implied probability: 83.5%
Current value: $41.75
Potential payout: $50
Potential profit: $8.25
Multiplier: 1.20x
User PnL: -$0.25

Yes position

Will "Minions & Monsters" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 68m and 77m?

Ends Jul 6, 2026

Implied probability: 56.5%
Current value: $28.25
Potential payout: $50
Potential profit: $21.76
Multiplier: 1.77x
User PnL: -$2.75

Yes position

Will South Korea reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jul 4, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $50
Potential profit: $50
User PnL: -$20.5

Yes position

Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21?

Ends Jun 21, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $49.99
Potential profit: $49.99
User PnL: -$8.5

Down position

SpaceX IPO: Closing Price Up/Down End of First Month?

Ends Jul 1, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $40
Potential profit: $40
User PnL: -$12.6

Yes position

Will Morocco win on 2026-07-04?

Ends Jul 4, 2026

Implied probability: 55.5%
Current value: $11.1
Potential payout: $20
Potential profit: $8.9
Multiplier: 1.80x
User PnL: $0.1

No position

FDA approves Otsuka's Centanafadine?

Ends Jul 24, 2026

Implied probability: 18.6%
Current value: $3.71
Potential payout: $20
Potential profit: $16.29
Multiplier: 5.39x
User PnL: -$3.05

Yes position

Will Argentina win on 2026-07-03?

Ends Jul 3, 2026

Implied probability: 86.5%
Current value: $17.3
Potential payout: $20
Potential profit: $2.7
Multiplier: 1.16x
User PnL: $0.1

Yes position

Will Portugal vs. Croatia end in a draw?

Ends Jul 2, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $20
Potential profit: $20
User PnL: -$5.15

Yes position

Will Egypt win on 2026-07-03?

Ends Jul 3, 2026

Implied probability: 40.5%
Current value: $8.1
Potential payout: $20
Potential profit: $11.9
Multiplier: 2.47x
User PnL: $0.3

No position

FDA approves Viatris' low-dose estrogen weekly patch?

Ends Jul 30, 2026

Implied probability: 12.5%
Current value: $2.5
Potential payout: $20
Potential profit: $17.5
Multiplier: 8.00x
User PnL: -$3.9

No position

Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jul 20, 2026

Implied probability: 98.8%
Current value: $9.88
Potential payout: $10
Potential profit: $0.13
Multiplier: 1.01x
User PnL: $0.05

Resolved Context

Closed positions

No position

Will Berachain launch in 2024?

Ends Dec 31, 2024

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $50.76

Yes position

Will Berachain not launch a token in 2024?

Ends Dec 31, 2024

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $32.07

Yes position

Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 7, 2026?

Ends Jun 7, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $30

Yes position

Will Max Verstappen win the 2025 F1 British Grand Prix Pole?

Ends Jul 6, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $17.65

No position

Will Shopify (SHOP) beat quarterly earnings?

Ends Nov 4, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $16.6

Yes position

Will Spain win on 2026-07-02?

Ends Jul 2, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $11.88

男人 (Man) position

草莓软糖是男人还是女人 (man or woman)?

Ends Sep 27, 2024

Implied probability: 50%
Multiplier: 2.00x
User PnL: $10.5

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on June 19?

Ends Jun 19, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $10.2

No position

Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 23°C on June 19?

Ends Jun 19, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $10

Yes position

Will Switzerland win on 2026-07-02?

Ends Jul 3, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $9.7

Yes position

US x Iran ceasefire by December 31?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $9.7

Yes position

US x Iran ceasefire by June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $9

Yes position

Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2024 meeting?

Ends Sep 18, 2024

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $8.36

Yes position

Will the next Dutch government be VVD + CDA + D66?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $7.59

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET

Ends Jun 7, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $6.36

Yes position

Will Starmer say "Green" during the next PMQ?

Ends Jun 17, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $6.22

No position

Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in May?

Ends Jun 1, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $5.95

Yes position

Will "The Devil Wears Prada 2" be the May film with the highest domestic gross on June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $5.66

Opetaia position

Zuffa Boxing 4: Opetaia vs. Glanton (Cruiserweight, Main)

Ends Mar 9, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $5.24

No position

Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score

Ends Jun 15, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $5.15

No position

Hyperliquid all time high by December 31?

Ends Jan 1, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $4.5

No position

Will Iran close its airspace by June 10?

Ends Jun 11, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $4.3

No position

Will Iran advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jun 28, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $4.28

No position

Will Brazil unban X before October?

Ends Sep 30, 2024

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $4.09

Trades

Recent trades

Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.

Will France win on 2026-07-04?

Yes 84% 50 shares
Will Morocco win on 2026-07-04?

Yes 55% 20 shares
Will Argentina win on 2026-07-03?

Yes 86% 20 shares
Will Egypt win on 2026-07-03?

Yes 39% 20 shares
Will Switzerland win on 2026-07-02?

Yes 51.5% 20 shares
Will Portugal vs. Croatia end in a draw?

Yes 25.8% 20 shares
Meloni out as Prime Minister of Italy by June 30?

No 99% 5.42 shares
Will Cambria launch a token by September 30, 2026?

Yes 78.8% 20 shares
Will San Diego Padres win the 2026 NL West title?

Yes 1.3% 20 shares
Will Slingshot launch a token by December 31, 2026?

Yes 72% 20 shares
Will Starmer say "Green" during the next PMQ?

No 23% 3.62 shares
SpaceX IPO: Closing Price Up/Down End of First Month?

Up 84% 20 shares