Yes position
Iran closes its airspace by May 31?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $1.3K
- Potential profit
- $1.3K
- User PnL
- -$563.9
Polymarket Trader
chaos.incarnate
0x93848a6a7bab42f6f49f6eca862a4db22ff8d1b1
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $667.79
- Realized PnL
- $603.65
- Win rate
- 100%
- Open positions
- 9
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
Yes position
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?
Ends Sep 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 35%
- Current value
- $332.8
- Potential payout
- $952.22
- Potential profit
- $619.42
- Multiplier
- 2.86x
- User PnL
- $41.49
Yes position
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 12.5%
- Current value
- $46.67
- Potential payout
- $373.35
- Potential profit
- $326.68
- Multiplier
- 8.00x
- User PnL
- -$72.8
Yes position
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 66.5%
- Current value
- $182.38
- Potential payout
- $274.25
- Potential profit
- $91.87
- Multiplier
- 1.50x
- User PnL
- -$2.62
Yes position
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 7.5%
- Current value
- $15
- Potential payout
- $200
- Potential profit
- $185
- Multiplier
- 13.33x
- User PnL
- -$13
Yes position
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 33.5%
- Current value
- $44.12
- Potential payout
- $131.7
- Potential profit
- $87.58
- Multiplier
- 2.99x
- User PnL
- $4.12
Yes position
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 30.5%
- Current value
- $35.99
- Potential payout
- $118
- Potential profit
- $82.01
- Multiplier
- 3.28x
- User PnL
- $5.99
Yes position
Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?
Ends Nov 3, 2026- Implied probability
- 19.5%
- Current value
- $10.83
- Potential payout
- $55.56
- Potential profit
- $44.72
- Multiplier
- 5.13x
- User PnL
- $0.83
Down position
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET
Ends May 7, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $50
- Potential profit
- $50
- User PnL
- -$1
Resolved Context
Closed positions
Yes position
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $215.98
Yes position
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 95.7%
- Multiplier
- 1.05x
- User PnL
- $209.43
Yes position
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $30.21
No position
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by May 31st?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $18.39
No position
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026?
Ends May 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $13.52
No position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $12.25
Up position
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET
Ends Apr 23, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $10.41
No position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $9.76
No position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $9.65
Up position
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET
Ends Apr 23, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $8.61
Down position
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET
Ends Apr 23, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $7.03
Down position
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET
Ends Jun 16, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $6.39
Down position
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET
Ends Apr 23, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $6.25
Up position
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET
Ends Apr 23, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $5.91
Down position
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET
Ends Apr 23, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $5.64
Down position
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET
Ends Apr 23, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $4.64
Up position
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET
Ends Apr 23, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $4.38
Up position
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET
Ends May 7, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $4.09
Down position
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET
Ends Apr 23, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $4.05
Up position
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET
Ends Apr 23, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $3.51
Up position
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET
Ends Apr 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $3.44
Up position
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET
Ends Apr 23, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $3.41
Yes position
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?
Ends Dec 6, 2026- Implied probability
- 61.4%
- Multiplier
- 1.63x
- User PnL
- $3.38
No position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $3.33
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?Yes 25.4% 118 shares
- Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45AM-10:50AM ETDown 61% 16.39 shares
- Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?Yes 18% 55.56 shares
- Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?Yes 32% 78.13 shares
- Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel?Yes 24% 47.61 shares
- Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?Yes 68% 125 shares
- Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?Yes 89.6% 822.77 shares
- Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel?Yes 21% 47.62 shares
- Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?Yes 28% 53.57 shares
- Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?Yes 67% 149.25 shares
- Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?Yes 37.8% 51.15 shares
- Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of June?No 81.9% 88.67 shares