Polymarket Trader

returntosender

0x93eb3a82ba762e7516fb56ee7f9f775ad23aa094

Public profile Partial data Delayed section

Open value: $111.39
Realized PnL: $81.75
Win rate: 100%
Open positions: 19
Closed positions: 2
Markets traded: Unavailable

Current Predictions

Open positions

Yes position

Will Javier Milei be the next leader out before 2027?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $500
Potential profit: $500
User PnL: -$1

Yes position

Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting?

Ends Jun 17, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $250
Potential profit: $250
User PnL: -$10

Yes position

Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $246.55
Potential profit: $246.55
User PnL: -$1

Yes position

Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?

Ends Jul 29, 2026

Implied probability: 24.6%
Current value: $32.2
Potential payout: $131.15
Potential profit: $98.96
Multiplier: 4.07x
User PnL: $22.2

Yes position

Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 13.5%
Current value: $14.21
Potential payout: $105.26
Potential profit: $91.05
Multiplier: 7.41x
User PnL: -$5.79

Yes position

Iran leadership change by April 30?

Ends Apr 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $71.43
Potential profit: $71.43
User PnL: -$10

Yes position

SpaceX IPO: Will Elon Musk Ring the Bell?

Ends Jun 13, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $55.56
Potential profit: $55.56
User PnL: -$10

Yes position

Will Trump declare war on Iran by April 30, 2026?

Ends Apr 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $53.74
Potential profit: $53.74
User PnL: -$10

Yes position

Will Miguel Díaz-Canel be the next leader out before 2027?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $51.42
Potential profit: $51.42
User PnL: -$1

Yes position

Iran leadership change by May 31?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $50
Potential profit: $50
User PnL: -$10

Yes position

Will Israel conduct military action against Iran by April 21, 2026?

Ends Apr 21, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $43.48
Potential profit: $43.48
User PnL: -$10

Yes position

Will Elon Musk be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating SpaceX's IPO?

Ends Jun 13, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $40.25
Potential profit: $40.25
User PnL: -$10

No position

Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $37.04
Potential profit: $37.04
User PnL: -$10

Yes position

Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 80.3%
Current value: $25.08
Potential payout: $31.25
Potential profit: $6.17
Multiplier: 1.25x
User PnL: $15.08

Yes position

Will OpenAI announce earbuds or headphones in 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 27%
Current value: $7.5
Potential payout: $27.78
Potential profit: $20.28
Multiplier: 3.70x
User PnL: -$2.5

Yes position

Will Pete Hegseth leave the Trump administration before 2027?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 29.5%
Current value: $7.97
Potential payout: $27
Potential profit: $19.04
Multiplier: 3.39x
User PnL: -$2.03

Yes position

Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 26%
Current value: $6.5
Potential payout: $25
Potential profit: $18.5
Multiplier: 3.85x
User PnL: -$3.5

Yes position

Will Karoline Leavitt leave the Trump administration before 2027?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 32.5%
Current value: $7.39
Potential payout: $22.73
Potential profit: $15.34
Multiplier: 3.08x
User PnL: -$2.61

Yes position

Will Kash Patel leave the Trump administration before 2027?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 57%
Current value: $10.55
Potential payout: $18.52
Potential profit: $7.96
Multiplier: 1.75x
User PnL: $0.55

Resolved Context

Closed positions

Yes position

US forces enter Iran by April 30?

Ends Apr 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $75.08

Yes position

Will Tulsi Gabbard leave the Trump administration before 2027?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $6.67

Trades

Recent trades

Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.

Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30?

No 27% 37.04 shares
Will Pete Hegseth leave the Trump administration before 2027?

Yes 37% 27 shares
Will Kash Patel leave the Trump administration before 2027?

Yes 54% 18.52 shares
Will OpenAI announce earbuds or headphones in 2026?

Yes 36% 27.78 shares
Will Elon Musk be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating SpaceX's IPO?

Yes 24.8% 40.25 shares
SpaceX IPO: Will Elon Musk Ring the Bell?

Yes 18% 55.56 shares
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?

Yes 19% 105.26 shares
Will Tulsi Gabbard leave the Trump administration before 2027?

Yes 60% 16.67 shares
Will Javier Milei be the next leader out before 2027?

Yes 0.2% 500 shares
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027?

Yes 0.4% 246.55 shares
Will Miguel Díaz-Canel be the next leader out before 2027?

Yes 1.9% 51.42 shares
Will Israel conduct military action against Iran by April 21, 2026?

Yes 23% 43.48 shares