No position
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $1.09K
- Potential profit
- $1.09K
- User PnL
- -$893
Polymarket Trader
Karasius5
0x947a40ab9483a53da691f0b503fb9cd102138d79
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $2.46
- Realized PnL
- $835.45
- Win rate
- 70.8%
- Open positions
- 4
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
Yes position
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
Ends Nov 7, 2028- Implied probability
- 14.1%
- Current value
- $0.71
- Potential payout
- $5.01
- Potential profit
- $4.3
- Multiplier
- 7.07x
- User PnL
- -$0.29
Yes position
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
Ends Nov 7, 2028- Implied probability
- 38%
- Current value
- $0.76
- Potential payout
- $2
- Potential profit
- $1.24
- Multiplier
- 2.64x
- User PnL
- -$0.24
Yes position
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?
Ends Nov 3, 2026- Implied probability
- 82.5%
- Current value
- $0.99
- Potential payout
- $1.2
- Potential profit
- $0.21
- Multiplier
- 1.21x
- User PnL
- -$0.01
Resolved Context
Closed positions
No position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 92.9%
- Multiplier
- 1.08x
- User PnL
- $607.24
No position
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $235.09
No position
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.9%
- User PnL
- $205.13
No position
Will US or Israel strike Iran by January 31, 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $190.48
No position
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?
Ends Feb 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $187.23
No position
Odds of Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31 over 50% by January 16?
Ends Jan 16, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $100.49
No position
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $96.25
Yes position
Will Anutin Charnvirakul be the next prime minister of Thailand?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $90.51
No position
Will the US next strike Iran on January 24, 2026 (ET)?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $66.41
No position
US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $56.41
Yes position
US government shutdown Saturday?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $22.6
No position
Will the US strike Iran next?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $15.87
No position
Will the US next strike Iran on January 25, 2026 (ET)?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $14.24
No position
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $12.82
Yes position
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $12.06
No position
US x Iran nuclear talks resume by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $9.28
No position
US strikes Iran by February 7, 2026?
Ends Feb 7, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $6.56
No position
Will the Iranian regime fall by January 31?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- -$3.24
Yes position
Will Chong Won-oh win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election
Ends Jun 3, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$10.7
No position
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in February?
Ends Mar 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- -$17.72
No position
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$30.38
Yes position
Will Bhumjaithai Party (BJT) finish in second place by number of seats in the 2026 Thai legislative election?
Ends Feb 8, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$38.1
No position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 11.5%
- Multiplier
- 8.70x
- User PnL
- -$93.1
Yes position
Will People’s Party (PPLE) win the most seats in the 2026 Thai legislative election?
Ends Feb 8, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$900
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?No 80% 833.33 shares
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?No 24% 3,656.26 shares
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?No 72% 833.33 shares
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?No 26.5% 3,656.26 shares
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?No 71% 2,457.14 shares
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?No 49% 2,457.14 shares
- Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?No 94% 1,282.05 shares
- Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?No 80% 622.5 shares
- Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?No 78% 1,282.05 shares
- Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?No 97% 1,337.34 shares
- Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?No 84% 470.24 shares
- Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in February?No 54.5% 719.29 shares