Praescientia

Implied probability: 4.1%
Current value: $16.5
Potential payout: $407.31
Potential profit: $390.81
Multiplier: 24.69x
User PnL: -$35.7

Yes position

Will Carlos Álvarez win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?

Ends Apr 12, 2026

Implied probability: 0.1%
Current value: $0.18
Potential payout: $357.14
Potential profit: $356.96
Multiplier: 2000.00x
User PnL: -$49.82

Yes position

Will Russia capture Kupiansk by December 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 27%
Current value: $90.13
Potential payout: $333.81
Potential profit: $243.68
Multiplier: 3.70x
User PnL: -$2.14

Yes position

Starmer out by June 30, 2026?

Implied probability: 64.5%
Current value: $207.84
Potential payout: $322.23
Potential profit: $114.39
Multiplier: 1.55x
User PnL: $123.75

Yes position

Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?

Implied probability: 5%
Current value: $15.75
Potential payout: $318.18
Potential profit: $302.43
Multiplier: 20.20x
User PnL: -$18.84

No position

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 69.5%
Current value: $212.33
Potential payout: $305.55
Potential profit: $93.22
Multiplier: 1.44x
User PnL: $9.41

Yes position

Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by July 31?

Ends Jul 31, 2026

Implied probability: 13%
Current value: $36.85
Potential payout: $283.46
Potential profit: $246.61
Multiplier: 7.69x
User PnL: -$96.15

Yes position

U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "India" before 2027?

Implied probability: 25.5%
Current value: $68.75
Potential payout: $269.6
Potential profit: $200.85
Multiplier: 3.92x
User PnL: -$32.11

Yes position

Gustavo Petro out as leader of Colombia by June 30?

Implied probability: 3.3%
Current value: $7.92
Potential payout: $243.67
Potential profit: $235.75
Multiplier: 30.77x
User PnL: -$18.88

Yes position

Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?

Ends Nov 7, 2028

Implied probability: 23.9%
Current value: $54.54
Potential payout: $228.67
Potential profit: $174.13
Multiplier: 4.19x
User PnL: $6.52

Yes position

Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30?

Implied probability: 100%
Current value: $218.1
Potential payout: $218.21
Potential profit: $0.11
User PnL: $88.17

Yes position

Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027?

Implied probability: 67.5%
Current value: $139.99
Potential payout: $207.39
Potential profit: $67.4
Multiplier: 1.48x
User PnL: $54.96

Yes position

Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?

Ends Sep 30, 2026

Implied probability: 57.5%
Current value: $114
Potential payout: $198.25
Potential profit: $84.26
Multiplier: 1.74x
User PnL: -$2.49

No position

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by October 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 80%
Current value: $148.72
Potential payout: $185.89
Potential profit: $37.18
Multiplier: 1.25x
User PnL: $4.4

Yes position

Will Russia enter Kramatorsk by December 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 15%
Current value: $26.87
Potential payout: $179.16
Potential profit: $152.29
Multiplier: 6.67x
User PnL: -$4.39

Yes position

Kurds declare independence from Iran?

Implied probability: 0.7%
Current value: $1.19
Potential payout: $170
Potential profit: $168.81
Multiplier: 142.86x
User PnL: -$53.21

No position

Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027?

Implied probability: 81%
Current value: $122.41
Potential payout: $151.12
Potential profit: $28.71
Multiplier: 1.23x
User PnL: $6.64

No position

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?

Implied probability: 97.7%
Current value: $144.81
Potential payout: $148.22
Potential profit: $3.41
Multiplier: 1.02x
User PnL: $5.29

Yes position

Will Gold (GC) settle at $4,200-$4,600 in June?

Implied probability: 36.4%
Current value: $51.97
Potential payout: $142.77
Potential profit: $90.8
Multiplier: 2.75x
User PnL: -$12.6

No position

Will Trump speak to Maria Corina Machado in June?

Implied probability: 93%
Current value: $120.9
Potential payout: $130
Potential profit: $9.1
Multiplier: 1.08x
User PnL: $6

Yes position

Tamas Sulyok out as President of Hungary by June 30?

Implied probability: 11.5%
Current value: $14.38
Potential payout: $125
Potential profit: $110.63
Multiplier: 8.70x
User PnL: -$25.63

No position

Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026?

Ends Jul 31, 2026

Implied probability: 85.5%
Current value: $104.54
Potential payout: $122.27
Potential profit: $17.73
Multiplier: 1.17x
User PnL: $9.17

Yes position

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?

Implied probability: 73.6%
Current value: $85.17
Potential payout: $115.8
Potential profit: $30.63
Multiplier: 1.36x
User PnL: $5.69

No position

Opensea FDV above $100M one day after launch?

Ends Jan 1, 2027

Implied probability: 60.2%
Current value: $66.28
Potential payout: $110.19
Potential profit: $43.91
Multiplier: 1.66x
User PnL: $45.29

Resolved Context

Closed positions

Yes position

Will Nithya Raman finish second in the first round of the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $542.07

No position

Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $440.65

No position

Will Karen Bass & Spencer Pratt advance to the second round of the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $429.36

Yes position

Will Karen Bass & Nithya Raman advance to the second round of the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $365.75

Yes position

Will Ed Gallrein be the Republican nominee for KY-04?

Ends May 19, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $301.33

No position

Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from February 17 to February 24, 2026?

Ends Feb 24, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $299.75

Yes position

Will Park Wan-soo win the 2026 Gyeongsangnam Province Gubernatorial Election?

Ends Jun 3, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $281.49

No position

Will Spencer Pratt finish second in the first round of the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $279.88

Yes position

Will Trump say "Thousand" or "Hundred" 25+ times during Memphis Roundtable?

Ends Mar 23, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $266.44

No position

Will Trump say "Nuclear" during events with Xi Jinping?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $253.89

No position

Will Trump say "Strait" or "Hormuz" during events with Xi Jinping?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $250.36

No position

Will Trump visit China by April 30?

Ends Apr 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $243.24

No position

Will Japan’s January 2026 unemployment rate be 2.6%?

Ends Mar 3, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $235.23

No position

Will Iran strike Israel on March 6?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $233.69

Yes position

Will Ed Gallrein win the 2026 KY-04 Republican Primary Election by 9% or more?

Ends May 19, 2026

Implied probability: 99.3%
User PnL: $221.21

No position

Will Trump say "Uranium" this week?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $214.71

No position

Will Trump say "Ceasefire" or "Peace Deal" during Address to the Nation?

Ends Apr 1, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $203.45

Yes position

Iran closes its airspace by June 30?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $185.82

Yes position

Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?

Ends Feb 28, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $179.7

Yes position

Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?