Polymarket Trader

Jia-yi

0x94c56fb3f8e7b8a934ddbfd1a4fa1a4282b9e6ee

Public profile Partial data Delayed section

Open value: $709.01
Realized PnL: $1.4K
Win rate: 100%
Open positions: 4
Closed positions: 24
Markets traded: Unavailable

Current Predictions

Open positions

No position

Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?

Ends Nov 3, 2026

Implied probability: 17.5%
Current value: $525
Potential payout: $3K
Potential profit: $2.47K
Multiplier: 5.71x
User PnL: -$14.99

Yes position

US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 12.5%
Current value: $169.01
Potential payout: $1.35K
Potential profit: $1.18K
Multiplier: 8.00x
User PnL: $0.93

Yes position

Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 1.5%
Current value: $15.01
Potential payout: $1K
Potential profit: $985.79
Multiplier: 66.67x
User PnL: -$9.11

No position

US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $1K
Potential profit: $1K
User PnL: -$3

Resolved Context

Closed positions

No position

Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 98.7%
Multiplier: 1.01x
User PnL: $512

Yes position

US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?

Ends Jun 15, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $404.19

No position

US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $176

Yes position

Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election?

Ends Nov 7, 2028

Implied probability: 4.5%
Multiplier: 22.47x
User PnL: $76.19

70k position

Will Bitcoin hit $70k or $90k first?

Ends Jan 1, 2027

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $30.68

No position

Netanyahu out by March 31?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $27.24

No position

Xi Jinping out by June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 99.9%
User PnL: $22.79

Yes position

Will Trump and Xi handshake last 10–15 seconds during the day of their next meeting in 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $22.39

No position

Will Trump visit China by March 31?

Ends Oct 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $21.23

No position

US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 8, 2026?

Ends May 8, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $21

Yes position

US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $13.71

Yes position

Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?

Ends Nov 3, 2026

Implied probability: 17.5%
Multiplier: 5.71x
User PnL: $11

No position

Will Trump and Xi handshake last 15 seconds or longer during the day of their next meeting in 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $9.55

No position

US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 22, 2026?

Ends May 22, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $7.36

Yes position

Will Trump visit China by May 15?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $7

No position

Iran closes its airspace by May 27?

Ends May 27, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $5.16

No position

Trump out as President by April 30?

Ends Apr 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $5.15

No position

Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 19, 2026?

Ends Apr 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $5.01

No position

Will Trump visit China by April 30?

Ends Apr 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $4.68

No position

US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026?

Ends Jun 7, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $4.2

Yes position

US x Iran ceasefire by May 31?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $3.01

No position

US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?

Ends May 26, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $2

Yes position

Xi Jinping out before 2027?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 6.8%
Multiplier: 14.81x
User PnL: $2

No position

Iran closes its airspace by May 24?

Ends May 24, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.61

Trades

Recent trades

Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.

US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31?

Yes 12% 9 shares
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?

Yes 35% 328.07 shares
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30?

Yes 2.5% 100 shares
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?

No 94% 999.99 shares
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?

No 44% 200 shares
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30?

Yes 2.5% 72.41 shares
Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?

Yes 18% 20.12 shares
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?

No 0.3% 1,000 shares
Will Bitcoin hit $70k or $90k first?

70k 99.6% 87.66 shares
Will Bitcoin hit $70k or $90k first?

70k 99% 30.3 shares
Will Bitcoin hit $70k or $90k first?

70k 97% 103.09 shares
Will Bitcoin hit $70k or $90k first?

70k 97.7% 307.14 shares