No position
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026?
Ends Oct 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 69.5%
- Current value
- $1.58K
- Potential payout
- $2.27K
- Potential profit
- $692.88
- Multiplier
- 1.44x
- User PnL
- $77.38
Polymarket Trader
GaioMario
@PolyGaioMario
0x94d0f4a485b7670d244224b33e1659a8b1959e65
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $15.86K
- Realized PnL
- $7.64K
- Win rate
- 100%
- Open positions
- 23
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
Yes position
Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 46.5%
- Current value
- $930
- Potential payout
- $2K
- Potential profit
- $1.07K
- Multiplier
- 2.15x
- User PnL
- $320
No position
Will Russia enter Druzkhivka by December 31, 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 70%
- Current value
- $1.14K
- Potential payout
- $1.63K
- Potential profit
- $489.02
- Multiplier
- 1.43x
- User PnL
- $158.91
No position
Will Russia capture all of Lyman by June 30, 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 98.8%
- Current value
- $1.58K
- Potential payout
- $1.6K
- Potential profit
- $19.96
- Multiplier
- 1.01x
- User PnL
- $320.63
No position
Will Russia capture Mala Tokmachka by September 30, 2026?
Ends Sep 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 87.5%
- Current value
- $1.34K
- Potential payout
- $1.53K
- Potential profit
- $191.34
- Multiplier
- 1.14x
- User PnL
- $159.18
No position
Will Russia capture Orikhiv by September 30, 2026?
Ends Sep 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 89%
- Current value
- $1.34K
- Potential payout
- $1.5K
- Potential profit
- $165
- Multiplier
- 1.12x
- User PnL
- -$10
No position
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 98.1%
- Current value
- $1.31K
- Potential payout
- $1.33K
- Potential profit
- $26.01
- Multiplier
- 1.02x
- User PnL
- $107.39
No position
Will Russia capture Lyman by June 30, 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 93.4%
- Current value
- $1.18K
- Potential payout
- $1.27K
- Potential profit
- $83.56
- Multiplier
- 1.07x
- User PnL
- $173.69
No position
Will Russia capture all of Bilytske by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.3%
- Current value
- $1.24K
- Potential payout
- $1.25K
- Potential profit
- $8.76
- User PnL
- $269.52
No position
Will Russia capture Mala Tokmachka by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 98%
- Current value
- $1K
- Potential payout
- $1.02K
- Potential profit
- $20.42
- Multiplier
- 1.02x
- User PnL
- $81.68
No position
Will Hyperliquid reach $76 in June?
Ends Jul 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $900
- Potential profit
- $900
- User PnL
- -$599
No position
Will Russia capture all of Chasiv Yar by September 30?
Ends Sep 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 71.5%
- Current value
- $598.3
- Potential payout
- $836.78
- Potential profit
- $238.48
- Multiplier
- 1.40x
- User PnL
- -$35.29
No position
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 72%
- Current value
- $540
- Potential payout
- $750
- Potential profit
- $210
- Multiplier
- 1.39x
- User PnL
- $37.5
Yes position
Will Russia capture Rai-Oleksandrivka by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 75.5%
- Current value
- $447.39
- Potential payout
- $592.57
- Potential profit
- $145.18
- Multiplier
- 1.32x
- User PnL
- $123.96
No position
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026?
Ends Sep 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 89.4%
- Current value
- $521.79
- Potential payout
- $583.98
- Potential profit
- $62.19
- Multiplier
- 1.12x
- User PnL
- $6.81
No position
Will Russia capture all of Lyman by December 31, 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 62.5%
- Current value
- $312.5
- Potential payout
- $500
- Potential profit
- $187.5
- Multiplier
- 1.60x
- User PnL
- $17.5
No position
Will Russia capture Rai-Oleksandrivka by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 24.5%
- Current value
- $93.06
- Potential payout
- $379.83
- Potential profit
- $286.77
- Multiplier
- 4.08x
- User PnL
- -$99.94
No position
Will Russia capture Serhiivka by July 31?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 96.6%
- Current value
- $328.27
- Potential payout
- $340
- Potential profit
- $11.73
- Multiplier
- 1.04x
- User PnL
- $48.87
No position
Will Russia capture Orikhiv by December 31, 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 78.5%
- Current value
- $235.5
- Potential payout
- $300
- Potential profit
- $64.5
- Multiplier
- 1.27x
- User PnL
- $1.5
No position
Will Russia capture all of Bilytske by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 66%
- Current value
- $104.61
- Potential payout
- $158.5
- Potential profit
- $53.89
- Multiplier
- 1.52x
- User PnL
- $9.51
No position
Will Russia capture Stavky by July 31?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 89.5%
- Current value
- $20.92
- Potential payout
- $23.37
- Potential profit
- $2.45
- Multiplier
- 1.12x
- User PnL
- $5.73
No position
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by August 31?
Ends Aug 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 90.5%
- Current value
- $18.1
- Potential payout
- $20
- Potential profit
- $1.9
- Multiplier
- 1.10x
- User PnL
- $0.5
No position
Will Russia enter Dopropillia by December 31, 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 60%
- Current value
- $1.2
- Potential payout
- $2
- Potential profit
- $0.8
- Multiplier
- 1.67x
- User PnL
- $0.4
Resolved Context
Closed positions
No position
Will Russia capture Sloviansk by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.3%
- User PnL
- $556.52
No position
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 98.5%
- Multiplier
- 1.02x
- User PnL
- $513.36
No position
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $501.22
No position
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by October 31?
Ends Oct 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $498.68
No position
Will Russia recapture territory in Kucheriv Yar by November 30?
Ends Nov 30, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $488.87
No position
Will Russia recapture territory in Vilne by November 30?
Ends Nov 30, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $487.9
Yes position
Will Italy win?
Ends Mar 14, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $398.92
No position
Will Russia capture Slovainsk in 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $317.9
No position
Will Russia capture all of Vovchansk by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $314.12
No position
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $293.66
No position
Will Russia capture Myrnohrad by September 30?
Ends Sep 30, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $280.96
No position
Will Russia capture Rodynske by August 31?
Ends Aug 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $273.4
No position
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $273.1
No position
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by March 31, 2026?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $264.28
Yes position
Successful Ukrainian counterattack in Donbass by October 31?
Ends Sep 15, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $245.56
No position
Will Russia capture Bilytske by April 30, 2026?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $243.62
No position
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $240.95
No position
Will Ukraine re-enter Rodynske by April 30?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $216.12
No position
Will Russia capture all of Myrnohrad by January 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $215.27
Yes position
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $212.12
No position
Will Russia capture Siversk by October 31?
Ends Sep 30, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $210.73
No position
Will Russia capture Lyman by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $204.85
No position
Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by June 30, 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.4%
- User PnL
- $199.36
No position
Will Russia capture Lyman by March 31, 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $191.86
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Will Hyperliquid dip to $52 in June?Yes 2.4% 497.14 shares
- Will Russia capture Lyman by December 31, 2026?No 46% 400 shares
- Will Hyperliquid dip to $52 in June?Yes 40.2% 497.15 shares
- Will Hyperliquid reach $80 in June?No 78.4% 406.98 shares
- Will Russia capture Huliaipilske by June 30?Yes 8.8% 476.82 shares
- Will Russia capture Huliaipilske by June 30?Yes 10.5% 476.83 shares
- Will Hyperliquid dip to $56 in June?Yes 79% 406.36 shares
- Will Russia capture Verkhnia Tersa by July 31?No 66% 42.42 shares
- Will Russia enter Malokaterynivka by December 31, 2026?No 79% 550 shares
- Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?No 54% 999.99 shares
- Will Russia capture Viroliubivka by December 31?No 69% 50.46 shares
- Will Russia capture Rai-Oleksandrivka by December 31?No 51% 31.37 shares