Yes position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 7.5%
- Current value
- $8.6
- Potential payout
- $114.67
- Potential profit
- $106.07
- Multiplier
- 13.33x
- User PnL
- -$12.29
Polymarket Trader
0x954a...575d
0x954afe1e233aec4344b1c1e0817df70b28a0575d
Public profile Partial data Delayed sectionDelayed section
- Open value
- $88.89
- Realized PnL
- $28.96
- Win rate
- 87.5%
- Open positions
- 23
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
Yes position
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 by December 31, 2026?
Ends Jan 1, 2027- Implied probability
- 19.5%
- Current value
- $5.21
- Potential payout
- $26.72
- Potential profit
- $21.51
- Multiplier
- 5.13x
- User PnL
- -$4.64
No position
Meloni out as Prime Minister of Italy by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 93.5%
- Current value
- $19.52
- Potential payout
- $20.88
- Potential profit
- $1.36
- Multiplier
- 1.07x
- User PnL
- $0.97
Yes position
Trump out as President before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 7.5%
- Current value
- $1.46
- Potential payout
- $19.48
- Potential profit
- $18.02
- Multiplier
- 13.33x
- User PnL
- -$1.46
Yes position
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 by December 31, 2026?
Ends Jan 1, 2027- Implied probability
- 7.5%
- Current value
- $0.7
- Potential payout
- $9.38
- Potential profit
- $8.67
- Multiplier
- 13.33x
- User PnL
- -$0.8
No position
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 89.5%
- Current value
- $7.85
- Potential payout
- $8.77
- Potential profit
- $0.92
- Multiplier
- 1.12x
- User PnL
- $0.08
No position
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 by December 31, 2026?
Ends Jan 1, 2027- Implied probability
- 82.5%
- Current value
- $6.05
- Potential payout
- $7.33
- Potential profit
- $1.28
- Multiplier
- 1.21x
- User PnL
- $0.53
No position
Jeffrey Epstein confirmed to be alive before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 97.3%
- Current value
- $5.66
- Potential payout
- $5.82
- Potential profit
- $0.16
- Multiplier
- 1.03x
- User PnL
- $0.12
No position
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 96.3%
- Current value
- $5.5
- Potential payout
- $5.71
- Potential profit
- $0.21
- Multiplier
- 1.04x
- User PnL
- $0.19
No position
Will NATO countries clash with each other before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 95.7%
- Current value
- $5.28
- Potential payout
- $5.52
- Potential profit
- $0.24
- Multiplier
- 1.05x
- User PnL
- $0.28
Yes position
Will OpenAI launch a new consumer hardware product by December 31, 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 26%
- Current value
- $1.3
- Potential payout
- $5
- Potential profit
- $3.7
- Multiplier
- 3.85x
- User PnL
- -$0.1
Yes position
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2026?
Ends Jan 1, 2027- Implied probability
- 10.5%
- Current value
- $0.53
- Potential payout
- $5
- Potential profit
- $4.48
- Multiplier
- 9.52x
- User PnL
- -$0.98
No position
NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 82.5%
- Current value
- $3.2
- Potential payout
- $3.88
- Potential profit
- $0.68
- Multiplier
- 1.21x
- User PnL
- $0.33
No position
New pandemic in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 92.5%
- Current value
- $3.38
- Potential payout
- $3.65
- Potential profit
- $0.27
- Multiplier
- 1.08x
- User PnL
- $0.16
No position
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 88.5%
- Current value
- $2.8
- Potential payout
- $3.16
- Potential profit
- $0.36
- Multiplier
- 1.13x
- User PnL
- $0.16
No position
Ukraine joins NATO before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 96.2%
- Current value
- $2.92
- Potential payout
- $3.03
- Potential profit
- $0.12
- Multiplier
- 1.04x
- User PnL
- $0.01
No position
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 93.9%
- Current value
- $2.31
- Potential payout
- $2.46
- Potential profit
- $0.15
- Multiplier
- 1.07x
- User PnL
- $0.09
Yes position
Will Apple release a foldable iPhone before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 82%
- Current value
- $1.94
- Potential payout
- $2.37
- Potential profit
- $0.43
- Multiplier
- 1.22x
- User PnL
- -$0.12
No position
Will Roberto Vannacci be the next Prime Minister of Italy?
Ends Dec 31, 2028- Implied probability
- 87.8%
- Current value
- $1.58
- Potential payout
- $1.8
- Potential profit
- $0.22
- Multiplier
- 1.14x
- User PnL
- $0.08
No position
Will US withdraw from NATO before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 96%
- Current value
- $1.65
- Potential payout
- $1.72
- Potential profit
- $0.07
- Multiplier
- 1.04x
- User PnL
- $0.05
No position
NATO article 5 before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 91.5%
- Current value
- $1.31
- Potential payout
- $1.43
- Potential profit
- $0.12
- Multiplier
- 1.09x
- User PnL
- $0.01
Yes position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?
Ends Jul 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 1.2%
- Current value
- $0.01
- Potential payout
- $1.17
- Potential profit
- $1.15
- Multiplier
- 86.96x
- User PnL
- -$0.24
Yes position
Will Ethereum reach $3,500 by December 31, 2026?
Ends Jan 1, 2027- Implied probability
- 11%
- Current value
- $0.12
- Potential payout
- $1.13
- Potential profit
- $1
- Multiplier
- 9.09x
- User PnL
- -$0.14
Resolved Context
Closed positions
Yes position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $17.19
Yes position
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by May 31st?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.41
Yes position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.88
No position
NATO x Russia military clash by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.7
No position
Will Bitcoin dip to $52,500 in June?
Ends Jul 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.17
No position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.14
Yes position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.7
No position
Will Ethereum dip to $800 by December 31, 2026?
Ends Jan 1, 2027- Implied probability
- 89%
- Multiplier
- 1.12x
- User PnL
- $0.65
No position
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in June?
Ends Jul 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.29
No position
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in May?
Ends Jun 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.28
No position
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June?
Ends Jul 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.26
Yes position
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of June?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $0.24
No position
Iran leadership change by April 30?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.21
No position
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026?
Ends Apr 21, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.19
No position
Will Israel win Eurovision 2026?
Ends May 16, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.17
Yes position
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026?
Ends May 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $0.15
No position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?
Ends May 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.13
No position
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.12
No position
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?
Ends Oct 10, 2026- Implied probability
- 94.5%
- Multiplier
- 1.06x
- User PnL
- $0.11
No position
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.02
No position
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0
Yes position
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 19.5%
- Multiplier
- 5.13x
- User PnL
- -$0.01
No position
Trump out as President by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- -$0.02
Yes position
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in June?
Ends Jul 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$0.03
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?Yes 10% 2.75 shares
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?Yes 10% 5.49 shares
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?Yes 10% 1.1 shares
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?Yes 10% 0.92 shares
- Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?Yes 20% 1.82 shares
- NATO article 5 before 2027?No 91% 1.43 shares
- New pandemic in 2026?No 92% 0.74 shares
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?Yes 16% 9.38 shares
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?Yes 16% 13.38 shares
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?Yes 16% 18.63 shares
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?Yes 16% 9.38 shares
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?Yes 16% 9.38 shares