GeoStrategistPro

Implied probability: 97.8%
Current value: $646.9
Potential payout: $661.79
Potential profit: $14.89
Multiplier: 1.02x
User PnL: $271.9

No position

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?

Ends Jul 31, 2026

Implied probability: 54.5%
Current value: $183.29
Potential payout: $336.31
Potential profit: $153.02
Multiplier: 1.83x
User PnL: -$51.71

No position

US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?

Ends Jul 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $208.33
Potential profit: $208.33
User PnL: -$150

Yes position

Will Zelenskyy talk to Putin by December 31?

Implied probability: 29.5%
Current value: $37.63
Potential payout: $127.57
Potential profit: $89.93
Multiplier: 3.39x
User PnL: $2.63

Yes position

China x Philippines military clash before 2027?

Implied probability: 14%
Current value: $16.09
Potential payout: $114.91
Potential profit: $98.82
Multiplier: 7.14x
User PnL: -$3.91

Yes position

Will Israel win Eurovision 2026?

Ends May 16, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $71.75
Potential profit: $71.75
User PnL: -$10

No position

US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?

Ends Jun 15, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $66.67
Potential profit: $66.67
User PnL: -$2

Yes position

Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by June 30?

Implied probability: 3.2%
Current value: $1.79
Potential payout: $56.87
Potential profit: $55.08
Multiplier: 31.75x
User PnL: -$7.21

Yes position

Will China blockade Taiwan by June 30?

Implied probability: 0.3%
Current value: $0.14
Potential payout: $55.56
Potential profit: $55.42
Multiplier: 400.00x
User PnL: -$1.86

Yes position

Will Israel launch a ground operation in Iran by June 30, 2026?

Implied probability: 0.5%
Current value: $0.27
Potential payout: $54.59
Potential profit: $54.32
Multiplier: 200.00x
User PnL: -$4.73

Yes position

EU/NATO country announces peacekeeping force in Ukraine by June 30?

Implied probability: 0.5%
Current value: $0.24
Potential payout: $52.63
Potential profit: $52.39
Multiplier: 222.22x
User PnL: -$1.76

Yes position

Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 8.5%
Current value: $4.25
Potential payout: $50
Potential profit: $45.75
Multiplier: 11.76x
User PnL: -$0.75

Yes position

U.S. Embassy in Damascus reopened by June 30, 2026?

Implied probability: 1.8%
Current value: $0.82
Potential payout: $45.45
Potential profit: $44.64
Multiplier: 55.56x
User PnL: -$4.18

Yes position

Will Saudi Arabia join the Abraham Accords before 2027?

Implied probability: 11%
Current value: $4.58
Potential payout: $41.67
Potential profit: $37.08
Multiplier: 9.09x
User PnL: -$0.42

Yes position

Will Syria join the Abraham Accords before 2027?

Implied probability: 8%
Current value: $3.33
Potential payout: $41.67
Potential profit: $38.33
Multiplier: 12.50x
User PnL: -$1.67

Yes position

Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel?

Implied probability: 3.5%
Current value: $1.45
Potential payout: $40.82
Potential profit: $39.38
Multiplier: 28.25x
User PnL: -$0.56

Yes position

Will Putin meet with Zelenskyy by June 30, 2026?

Implied probability: 0.4%
Current value: $0.15
Potential payout: $36.71
Potential profit: $36.56
Multiplier: 250.00x
User PnL: -$1.85

Yes position

Another Iranian diplomat expelled by April 30?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $36.4
Potential profit: $36.4
User PnL: -$3

Yes position

Ukraine peace referendum scheduled by June 30?

Implied probability: 0.6%
Current value: $0.19
Potential payout: $34.72
Potential profit: $34.53
Multiplier: 181.82x
User PnL: -$2.81

Yes position

Will Syria recognize Israel by June 30?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 0.4%
Current value: $0.13
Potential payout: $31.61
Potential profit: $31.48
Multiplier: 250.00x
User PnL: -$1.87

Yes position

Iran coup attempt by June 30?

Implied probability: 0.7%
Current value: $0.17
Potential payout: $26.32
Potential profit: $26.14
Multiplier: 153.85x
User PnL: -$4.83

No position

Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by June 30th?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $25.15
Potential profit: $25.15
User PnL: -$3

Yes position

Miguel Díaz-Canel out as President of Cuba by June 30?

Implied probability: 1.4%
Current value: $0.32
Potential payout: $23.12
Potential profit: $22.8
Multiplier: 71.43x
User PnL: -$5.68

Yes position

Israel x Syria security agreement by June 30?

Ends Jan 31, 2026

Implied probability: 2.3%
Current value: $0.52
Potential payout: $22.62
Potential profit: $22.1
Multiplier: 43.48x
User PnL: -$3.48

Resolved Context

Closed positions

Yes position

Houthi military action against Israel by April 15, 2026?

Ends Apr 15, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $56.13

No position

Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $48.79

Yes position

Iran closes its airspace by June 8?

Ends Jun 8, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $36.2

Yes position

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $24.24

Yes position

Israel announces suspension of Lebanon offensive by April 17, 2026?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $19.33

No position

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 24, 2026?

Ends Apr 24, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $10.51

No position

Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?

Implied probability: 63.5%
Multiplier: 1.57x
User PnL: $10.12

Yes position

QatarEnergy announces/resumes LNG production in Qatar by April 30?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $9.26

No position

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 21, 2026?

Ends Apr 21, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $6.75

No position

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 22, 2026?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $6.44

Yes position

Russia x Ukraine diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $5.4

No position

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 30, 2026?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $5

Yes position

Starmer out by June 30, 2026?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $4.43

Yes position

Ukraine officially agrees to a US backed ceasefire framework by June 30?

Implied probability: 3.6%
Multiplier: 27.78x
User PnL: $4

No position

U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by June 30?

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $3.18

Yes position

JD Vance diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 30?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $3

Yes position

Will another country recognize Somaliland by June 30?

Implied probability: 3.2%
Multiplier: 31.25x
User PnL: $2.86

Yes position

Will the United States send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2026?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.92

Yes position

Gaza flotilla enters Israeli waters by May 31?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $1.31

No position

Will Trump visit China by May 31?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $0.5

Yes position

Will Marco Rubio have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 30?

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $0.4

Yes position

Will a new country join the Abraham Accords by June 30?

Implied probability: 2.3%
Multiplier: 43.48x
User PnL: $0.14

Yes position

Will Iran strike Ghawar Field by April 30?

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $0.04

Yes position

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?