Yes position
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 1%
- Current value
- $3.96K
- Potential payout
- $416.94K
- Potential profit
- $412.98K
- Multiplier
- 105.26x
- User PnL
- -$13.98K
Polymarket Trader
trashpilot
0x9592adb70397e9de67ba9abe6971e3f50fb7a7b8
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $60.7K
- Realized PnL
- $110.7K
- Win rate
- 100%
- Open positions
- 50
- Closed positions
- 50
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
No position
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?
Ends Apr 7, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $189.64K
- Potential profit
- $189.64K
- User PnL
- -$8.44K
Yes position
Israel closes its airspace by June 10?
Ends Jun 10, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $156K
- Potential profit
- $156K
- User PnL
- -$7.42K
Yes position
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 12.5%
- Current value
- $12.5K
- Potential payout
- $100K
- Potential profit
- $87.5K
- Multiplier
- 8.00x
- User PnL
- -$2.85K
Yes position
Israel closes its airspace by June 9?
Ends Jun 9, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $95.8K
- Potential profit
- $95.8K
- User PnL
- -$3.44K
Yes position
Israel closes its airspace by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 4.9%
- Current value
- $4.1K
- Potential payout
- $83.64K
- Potential profit
- $79.55K
- Multiplier
- 20.41x
- User PnL
- -$8.42K
Yes position
Israel closes its airspace by June 15?
Ends Jun 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $74.73K
- Potential profit
- $74.73K
- User PnL
- -$10.51K
Yes position
Israel closes its airspace by June 11?
Ends Jun 11, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $35.45K
- Potential profit
- $35.45K
- User PnL
- -$1.6K
Yes position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?
Ends Jun 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.9%
- Current value
- $29.95K
- Potential payout
- $30K
- Potential profit
- $45
- User PnL
- $5.04K
Yes position
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of June?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.5%
- Current value
- $133.09
- Potential payout
- $29.58K
- Potential profit
- $29.44K
- Multiplier
- 222.22x
- User PnL
- -$546.87
Y
Yes position
Will Iran close its airspace by June 12?
Ends Jun 13, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $26.35K
- Potential profit
- $26.35K
- User PnL
- -$830.67
Yes position
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 9?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $25K
- Potential profit
- $25K
- User PnL
- -$1.01K
Yes position
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of June?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.7%
- Current value
- $173.72
- Potential payout
- $24.82K
- Potential profit
- $24.64K
- Multiplier
- 142.86x
- User PnL
- -$551.26
Yes position
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $24.41K
- Potential profit
- $24.41K
- User PnL
- -$195.85
Yes position
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 21, 2026?
Ends Apr 21, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $23K
- Potential profit
- $23K
- User PnL
- -$9.53K
Yes position
Iran coup attempt by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 1.2%
- Current value
- $267.62
- Potential payout
- $22.3K
- Potential profit
- $22.03K
- Multiplier
- 83.33x
- User PnL
- -$94.47
Yes position
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 1%
- Current value
- $209.65
- Potential payout
- $22.07K
- Potential profit
- $21.86K
- Multiplier
- 105.26x
- User PnL
- -$490.34
Yes position
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026?
Ends May 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 1.6%
- Current value
- $325.5
- Potential payout
- $21K
- Potential profit
- $20.67K
- Multiplier
- 64.52x
- User PnL
- -$797.61
Yes position
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $20K
- Potential profit
- $20K
- User PnL
- -$160
Yes position
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 27?
Ends May 27, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $19.92K
- Potential profit
- $19.92K
- User PnL
- -$515.37
Y
Yes position
Will Iran close its airspace by June 13?
Ends Jun 14, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $19.74K
- Potential profit
- $19.74K
- User PnL
- -$825.9
Yes position
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.6%
- Current value
- $77
- Potential payout
- $14K
- Potential profit
- $13.92K
- Multiplier
- 181.82x
- User PnL
- -$261.68
Yes position
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 19, 2026?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $12.52K
- Potential profit
- $12.52K
- User PnL
- -$3.46K
Yes position
Israel closes its airspace by June 13?
Ends Jun 13, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $12.28K
- Potential profit
- $12.28K
- User PnL
- -$380.89
Yes position
Israel closes its airspace by June 12?
Ends Jun 12, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $11.39K
- Potential profit
- $11.39K
- User PnL
- -$369.04
Y
Yes position
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30?
Ends Jul 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 9%
- Current value
- $904.06
- Potential payout
- $10.05K
- Potential profit
- $9.14K
- Multiplier
- 11.11x
- User PnL
- -$769.12
Yes position
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12?
Ends May 29, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $10K
- Potential profit
- $10K
- User PnL
- -$880.34
Yes position
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 9.5%
- Current value
- $949.95
- Potential payout
- $10K
- Potential profit
- $9.05K
- Multiplier
- 10.53x
- User PnL
- -$349.98
Yes position
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 28?
Ends May 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $9.97K
- Potential profit
- $9.97K
- User PnL
- -$1.08K
Yes position
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 14, 2026?
Ends May 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $9.94K
- Potential profit
- $9.94K
- User PnL
- -$360.53
Yes position
Israel closes its airspace by June 8?
Ends Jun 8, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $9.25K
- Potential profit
- $9.25K
- User PnL
- -$2.33K
Yes position
Iran leadership change by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 1.4%
- Current value
- $124.59
- Potential payout
- $9.23K
- Potential profit
- $9.1K
- Multiplier
- 74.07x
- User PnL
- -$638.38
Yes position
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 1.1%
- Current value
- $92.96
- Potential payout
- $8.45K
- Potential profit
- $8.36K
- Multiplier
- 90.91x
- User PnL
- -$473.18
Y
Yes position
Will Iran close its airspace by June 11?
Ends Jun 12, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $7.31K
- Potential profit
- $7.31K
- User PnL
- -$274.96
Yes position
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 9%
- Current value
- $640.37
- Potential payout
- $7.15K
- Potential profit
- $6.51K
- Multiplier
- 11.17x
- User PnL
- $122.39
Yes position
Iran leadership change by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 15.5%
- Current value
- $1.09K
- Potential payout
- $7.03K
- Potential profit
- $5.94K
- Multiplier
- 6.45x
- User PnL
- -$977.6
Yes position
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $125 in June?
Ends Jul 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.8%
- Current value
- $52.23
- Potential payout
- $6.96K
- Potential profit
- $6.91K
- Multiplier
- 133.33x
- User PnL
- -$447.76
Yes position
AWS service disrupted by April 30?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $6.26K
- Potential profit
- $6.26K
- User PnL
- -$372.72
No position
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 18, 2026?
Ends Apr 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $6.21K
- Potential profit
- $6.21K
- User PnL
- -$804.96
Yes position
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13?
Ends Jun 13, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.3%
- Current value
- $15
- Potential payout
- $6K
- Potential profit
- $5.99K
- Multiplier
- 400.00x
- User PnL
- -$405
Yes position
Will Comey insult Trump by Friday?
Ends May 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $5.5K
- Potential profit
- $5.5K
- User PnL
- -$255
Y
Yes position
Will Iran close its airspace by December 31?
Ends Jan 1, 2027- Implied probability
- 40.5%
- Current value
- $2.02K
- Potential payout
- $5K
- Potential profit
- $2.97K
- Multiplier
- 2.47x
- User PnL
- $425
Yes position
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 30?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 3.4%
- Current value
- $165.02
- Potential payout
- $4.93K
- Potential profit
- $4.76K
- Multiplier
- 29.85x
- User PnL
- -$598.97
Yes position
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of June?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.9%
- Current value
- $35.42
- Potential payout
- $4.17K
- Potential profit
- $4.13K
- Multiplier
- 117.65x
- User PnL
- -$464.58
No position
Will Donald Trump attend the G7 Summit?
Ends Jun 17, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $3.84K
- Potential profit
- $3.84K
- User PnL
- -$153.45
Yes position
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 58.5%
- Current value
- $2.06K
- Potential payout
- $3.52K
- Potential profit
- $1.46K
- Multiplier
- 1.71x
- User PnL
- $1.29K
Yes position
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in June?
Ends Jul 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.8%
- Current value
- $25.98
- Potential payout
- $3.25K
- Potential profit
- $3.22K
- Multiplier
- 125.00x
- User PnL
- -$155.02
Yes position
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?
Ends Jun 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 2.1%
- Current value
- $65.51
- Potential payout
- $3.12K
- Potential profit
- $3.05K
- Multiplier
- 47.62x
- User PnL
- -$534.49
Yes position
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 18, 2026?
Ends Jun 18, 2026- Implied probability
- 21.5%
- Current value
- $650.87
- Potential payout
- $3.03K
- Potential profit
- $2.38K
- Multiplier
- 4.65x
- User PnL
- $91.79
Yes position
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 3.7%
- Current value
- $106.26
- Potential payout
- $2.91K
- Potential profit
- $2.81K
- Multiplier
- 27.40x
- User PnL
- -$184.87
Resolved Context
Closed positions
Yes position
Iran closes its airspace by June 8?
Ends Jun 8, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $22.38K
Yes position
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $10.58K
Yes position
Iran closes its airspace by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $9.32K
N
No position
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14?
Ends Jun 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $7.73K
Yes position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $7.29K
No position
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 31?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $6.04K
Yes position
Iran closes its airspace by July 31?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $4.06K
Y
Yes position
Will Trump praise Allah by June 30?
Ends Jul 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $3.76K
Yes position
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15?
Ends May 29, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $3.59K
Yes position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $3.19K
Yes position
Will Trump speak to Ursula von der Leyen in May?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.54K
Yes position
Iran closes its airspace by June 15?
Ends Jun 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.51K
Yes position
US x Iran ceasefire by April 10?
Ends Apr 10, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.11K
Yes position
Will Trump praise Allah again by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.08K
Yes position
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.95K
Yes position
Iran closes its airspace by June 22?
Ends Jun 22, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.77K
Yes position
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.74K
Yes position
US x Iran ceasefire by May 31?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.33K
Yes position
US x Iran ceasefire by April 15?
Ends Apr 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.33K
Yes position
Another critical Cloudflare incident by June 30, 2026?
Ends Sep 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.13K
Yes position
Iran closes its airspace by July 15?
Ends Jul 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.11K
Yes position
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 30, 2026?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.09K
Yes position
Will Anthropic have the third best AI model at the end of May 2026?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.05K
Yes position
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1K
Y
Yes position
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14?
Ends Jun 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $956.5
No position
Will Google have the third best AI model at the end of May 2026?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $923.61
No position
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through June 15?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $859.98
No position
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 15, 2026?
Ends Jun 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $684.18
Yes position
US x Iran ceasefire by April 30?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $632.24
Yes position
US x Iran ceasefire by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $600
Yes position
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 14, 2026?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $459.91
Yes position
Will Khamenei tweet again on March 15, 2026?
Ends Mar 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $426.82
Yes position
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 15, 2026?
Ends Jun 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $387.22
No position
Will Donald Trump post 180-199 Truth Social posts from May 12 to May 19, 2026?
Ends May 19, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $348.43
Yes position
Will Donald Trump post 180-199 Truth Social posts from May 8 to May 15, 2026?
Ends May 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $336.66
Yes position
Will Khamenei tweet again on March 16, 2026?
Ends Mar 23, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $308.38
Yes position
Will Mojtaba Khamenei tweet again on March 18?
Ends Mar 21, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $289.9
Y
Yes position
Will Iran close its airspace by June 15?
Ends Jun 16, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $280.67
Yes position
Will Khamenei tweet again on March 18, 2026?
Ends Mar 23, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $268.9
Yes position
Will Trump endorse Ken Paxton for TX-Sen by Nov 2 2026 ET?
Ends Nov 4, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $253.03
Yes position
Will Donald Trump announce Todd Blanche as the next United States Attorney General by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $248.26
Yes position
Israel closes its airspace by June 14?
Ends Jun 14, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $228.1
Yes position
Will Trump praise Elon Musk by May 31, 2026?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $219.78
Yes position
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 2, 2026?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $198.21
Yes position
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by July 31, 2026?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $194.51
Yes position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026?
Ends Aug 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $192.53
No position
Will Donald Trump post 100-119 Truth Social posts from May 8 to May 15, 2026?
Ends May 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $192.22
Yes position
Will Donald Trump post 200+ Truth Social posts from May 12 to May 19, 2026?
Ends May 19, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $182.43
Yes position
Will Donald Trump post 200+ Truth Social posts from May 26 to June 2, 2026?
Ends Jun 2, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $176.85
Yes position
US x Iran ceasefire by May 15?
Ends May 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $174.84
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Will Bryan Johnson have sex again by June 30?Yes 74.5% 340.89 shares
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?No 0.6% 334 shares
- Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 15?No 98.9% 2,912.53 shares
- Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 15?No 93.4% 10.71 shares
- Will Claude by Anthropic be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on June 19?No 98.5% 456.66 shares
- Will Donald Trump post 100-119 Truth Social posts from June 9 to June 16, 2026?No 98.9% 843.81 shares
- Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 15, 2026?Yes 98.7% 1,667.76 shares
- UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Card)Ilia Topuria 80% 6.25 shares
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?No 7% 4,821.53 shares
- UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card)Ciryl Gane 52% 38.46 shares
- UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card)Ciryl Gane 50% 40 shares
- UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card)Ciryl Gane 47% 58.8 shares