jovidalao

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $1.55K
Potential profit: $1.55K
User PnL: -$82.79

Yes position

Will xAI have the #1 AI model at the end of May 2026 (Style Control On)?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $399.81
Potential profit: $399.81
User PnL: -$1.6

Yes position

Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?

Implied probability: 0.4%
Current value: $1.2
Potential payout: $300
Potential profit: $298.8
Multiplier: 250.00x
User PnL: -$5.7

Yes position

Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $199.99
Potential profit: $199.99
User PnL: -$4.8

Yes position

Will OpenAI have the #1 AI model at the end of May 2026 (Style Control On)?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $199.95
Potential profit: $199.95
User PnL: -$2.6

OpenAI position

Anthropic vs OpenAI - higher valuation on December 31?

Ends Jan 1, 2027

Implied probability: 23%
Current value: $39.47
Potential payout: $171.62
Potential profit: $132.15
Multiplier: 4.35x
User PnL: $5.15

Yes position

Will Xiaomi have the best Chinese AI model at the end of June 2026?

Implied probability: 0.8%
Current value: $0.75
Potential payout: $100
Potential profit: $99.25
Multiplier: 133.33x
User PnL: $0.15

Yes position

Will ByteDance have the best Chinese AI model at the end of June 2026?

Implied probability: 1%
Current value: $1
Potential payout: $100
Potential profit: $99
Multiplier: 100.00x
User PnL: -$0.1

Yes position

Will SpaceX's public ticker be $SPAX?

Ends Dec 31, 2027

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $100
Potential profit: $100
User PnL: -$1.3

Yes position

Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16?

Ends Jun 16, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $80
Potential profit: $80
User PnL: -$10.4

Yes position

Will Claude 5 be released by May 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $50
Potential profit: $50
User PnL: -$3.5

Yes position

GPT-5.6 released by June 8, 2026?

Ends Jun 8, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $49.98
Potential profit: $49.98
User PnL: -$8.5

Yes position

Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by June 30, 2026?

Implied probability: 4.1%
Current value: $2.01
Potential payout: $49
Potential profit: $46.99
Multiplier: 24.39x
User PnL: -$40.04

Yes position

GPT-5.6 released by July 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 91.9%
Current value: $42.27
Potential payout: $46
Potential profit: $3.73
Multiplier: 1.09x
User PnL: $2.14

Yes position

Will Anthropic have the best AI Agent at the end of June 2026?

Implied probability: 93%
Current value: $41.85
Potential payout: $45
Potential profit: $3.15
Multiplier: 1.08x
User PnL: $11.7

Yes position

Will Donald Trump visit China on May 14, 2026?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $40
Potential profit: $40
User PnL: -$13.6

Yes position

Will MiniMax have the best Chinese AI model at the end of June 2026?

Implied probability: 0.1%
Current value: $0.02
Potential payout: $39.99
Potential profit: $39.97
Multiplier: 2000.00x
User PnL: -$1.66

Yes position

Will any AI model reach 1510 Overall Arena Score by September 30, 2026?

Ends Sep 30, 2026

Implied probability: 45.5%
Current value: $17.08
Potential payout: $37.54
Potential profit: $20.46
Multiplier: 2.20x
User PnL: -$12.95

Yes position

Will Anthropic’s valuation hit (HIGH) $1.1T by June 30?

Ends Jul 1, 2026

Implied probability: 61.5%
Current value: $18.45
Potential payout: $30
Potential profit: $11.55
Multiplier: 1.63x
User PnL: $3.15

Yes position

Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.5T and $3.0T at market close on IPO day?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $25
Potential profit: $25
User PnL: -$3.23

Yes position

Will Trump say "Japan" or "Korea" during events with Xi Jinping?

Ends May 15, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $20
Potential profit: $20
User PnL: -$7.2

Yes position

Will Anthropic’s valuation hit (HIGH) $1.25T by June 30?

Ends Jul 1, 2026

Implied probability: 2.8%
Current value: $0.55
Potential payout: $20
Potential profit: $19.45
Multiplier: 36.36x
User PnL: -$4.25

Yes position

Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by June 26, 2026?

Implied probability: 0.7%
Current value: $0.1
Potential payout: $15
Potential profit: $14.9
Multiplier: 153.85x
User PnL: -$10.25

Yes position

GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026?

Implied probability: 8.5%
Current value: $0.85
Potential payout: $10
Potential profit: $9.16
Multiplier: 11.83x
User PnL: -$7.76

Resolved Context

Closed positions

Yes position

Gemini 3.5 released by June 30?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $37.8

Yes position

Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $33.2

Yes position

Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz in April?

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $20

Yes position

DeepSeek V4 released by April 30?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $16.48

Yes position

Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $12.65

Yes position

Will Claude 5 be released by September 30, 2026?

Ends Sep 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $11.5

Yes position

Will Claude 5 be released by June 30, 2026?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $7.8

Yes position

Gemini 3.2 released by May 22, 2026?

Ends May 22, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $4.48

Yes position

Will Z.ai have the best Chinese AI model at the end of June 2026?

Implied probability: 5%
Multiplier: 20.20x
User PnL: $2.23

Yes position

Will Anthropic have the #1 AI model at the end of April 2026 (Style Control On)?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $2.2

No position

Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026?

Implied probability: 99.8%
User PnL: $1.92

Yes position

Will Trump visit China by May 15?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.3

Yes position

Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 10.5%
Multiplier: 9.52x
User PnL: $1.04

No position

Will DeepSeek have the best Math AI model at the end of April 2026?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.87

Yes position

Will Xi Jinping visit US before 2027?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 90%
Multiplier: 1.11x
User PnL: $0.58

No position

Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.08

Yes position

Will SpaceX's market cap be greater than $1T at market close on IPO day?

Ends Dec 31, 2027

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0

No position

Will Elon Musk win his case against Sam Altman?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0

Yes position

Will GPT-5.5 be released on April 25, 2026?

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$1

Yes position

Will GPT-5.5 be released on April 24, 2026?

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$1

Yes position

Will OpenAI have the third best AI model at the end of April 2026?

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$1.14

No position

Will GPT-5.5 be released on April 23, 2026?

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$1.2

Yes position

Will GPT-5.5 be released on April 22, 2026?

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$1.4

No position

Will China invades Taiwan before GTA VI?