ox9614b59508B11504bDA8Ac4FDFBEFc2f92d8D217

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $1.75K
Potential profit: $1.75K
User PnL: -$8.75

No position

Will 30 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 5.5%
Current value: $14.56
Potential payout: $267.14
Potential profit: $252.58
Multiplier: 18.35x
User PnL: $10.82

Yes position

Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in July?

Ends Aug 1, 2026

Implied probability: 2.5%
Current value: $3.87
Potential payout: $157.94
Potential profit: $154.07
Multiplier: 40.82x
User PnL: $1.18

No position

Will Claude Mythos 5 be restored for US customers by June 30?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $132.5
Potential profit: $132.5
User PnL: -$2.65

No position

GPT-5.6 released by July 9, 2026?

Ends Jul 9, 2026

Implied probability: 1.8%
Current value: $2.02
Potential payout: $115.45
Potential profit: $113.43
Multiplier: 57.14x
User PnL: -$0.52

No position

Will Graham Platner drop out by July 17?

Ends Jul 17, 2026

Implied probability: 4.1%
Current value: $2.7
Potential payout: $66.56
Potential profit: $63.87
Multiplier: 24.69x
User PnL: $0.69

No position

Taylor Swift x Travis Kelce get married by August 31?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $51.68
Potential profit: $51.68
User PnL: -$6.05

No position

New pandemic in 2026?

Implied probability: 94.5%
Current value: $36.86
Potential payout: $39
Potential profit: $2.15
Multiplier: 1.06x
User PnL: $0.59

No position

Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $29.75
Potential profit: $29.75
User PnL: -$1.19

No position

Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 90.5%
Current value: $18.84
Potential payout: $20.82
Potential profit: $1.98
Multiplier: 1.10x
User PnL: -$0.11

No position

Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?

Implied probability: 99.3%
Current value: $15.99
Potential payout: $16.11
Potential profit: $0.12
User PnL: $0.01

Yes position

Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?

Implied probability: 76.5%
Current value: $11.92
Potential payout: $15.58
Potential profit: $3.66
Multiplier: 1.31x
User PnL: -$0.13

No position

Will the Bank of Russia increase the key rate after the July Meeting?

Ends Jul 24, 2026

Implied probability: 98.3%
Current value: $14.85
Potential payout: $15.12
Potential profit: $0.26
Multiplier: 1.02x
User PnL: -$0.12

No position

Will Graham Platner drop out by July 10?

Ends Jul 10, 2026

Implied probability: 37%
Current value: $5.55
Potential payout: $15
Potential profit: $9.45
Multiplier: 2.70x
User PnL: $2.4

No position

Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

Ends Oct 4, 2026

Implied probability: 90.4%
Current value: $12.14
Potential payout: $13.43
Potential profit: $1.3
Multiplier: 1.11x
User PnL: $0.26

Yes position

Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?

Implied probability: 21.9%
Current value: $2.81
Potential payout: $12.85
Potential profit: $10.03
Multiplier: 4.57x
User PnL: $0.5

Yes position

Will Trump be impeached by end of 2026?

Implied probability: 3.1%
Current value: $0.37
Potential payout: $12
Potential profit: $11.63
Multiplier: 32.79x
User PnL: -$0.71

No position

Will 50 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 67.5%
Current value: $7.11
Potential payout: $10.53
Potential profit: $3.42
Multiplier: 1.48x
User PnL: $1.11

No position

Will four or more people dissent the July Fed decision?

Implied probability: 98.5%
Current value: $10.05
Potential payout: $10.2
Potential profit: $0.15
Multiplier: 1.02x
User PnL: $0.07

Yes position

No change in Bank of England’s interest rates after July 2026 meeting?

Ends Jul 30, 2026

Implied probability: 97.7%
Current value: $9.94
Potential payout: $10.17
Potential profit: $0.23
Multiplier: 1.02x
User PnL: -$0.04

Yes position

NYSE marketwide circuit breaker before 2027?

Implied probability: 17%
Current value: $1.32
Potential payout: $7.77
Potential profit: $6.45
Multiplier: 5.88x
User PnL: -$0.03

No position

Trump out as President before 2027?

Implied probability: 92.5%
Current value: $6.68
Potential payout: $7.23
Potential profit: $0.54
Multiplier: 1.08x
User PnL: -$0.11

Resolved Context

Closed positions

Yes position

Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election?

Ends Apr 30, 2027

Implied probability: 27.4%
Multiplier: 3.66x
User PnL: $6.92

Yes position

US-Iran nuclear deal by July 31?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $3.04

No position

Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $2.12

Yes position

US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.78

Yes position

Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.77

Yes position

US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.36

Yes position

Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting?

Ends Jun 17, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.16

Yes position

Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.98

No position

Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by June 30?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.98

No position

Will Graham Platner drop out by July 9?

Ends Jul 9, 2026

Implied probability: 63%
Multiplier: 1.59x
User PnL: $0.9

No position

Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,000 by end of December?

Implied probability: 91.5%
Multiplier: 1.09x
User PnL: $0.83

No position

US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?

Ends May 26, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.71

No position

Cuba leader Miguel Diaz-Canel in US custody by June 30?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.64

Yes position

Lecornu out as French PM by December 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 16%
Multiplier: 6.25x
User PnL: $0.57

No position

Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.5

No position

Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 meeting?

Ends Jun 16, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.42

No position

Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by June 30, 2026?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.23

No position

Pershing Square acquires Universal Music Group by June 30?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.21

Yes position

Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by end of June?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.19

No position

Netanyahu out by June 30?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.18

No position

Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.18

Yes position

US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.16

No position

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.16

No position

Putin out as President of Russia by June 30?