Polymarket Trader

Olrefand2

0x969bb58ebc0ea8f6a1c63053f8a1164b1215db70

Public profile Partial data Delayed section

Open value: $45
Realized PnL: $3.4K
Win rate: 58.3%
Open positions: 24
Closed positions: 24
Markets traded: Unavailable

Current Predictions

Open positions

Yes position

Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $20K
Potential profit: $20K
User PnL: -$40

No position

Will Coinbase Global, Inc. (COIN) hit (LOW) $197.50 Week of May 11 2026?

Ends May 15, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $20K
Potential profit: $20K
User PnL: -$20

No position

Will Ted Cruz post 160-179 posts from April 17 to April 24, 2026?

Ends Apr 24, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $20K
Potential profit: $20K
User PnL: -$20

Facundo Mena position

Santa Cruz: Facundo Mena vs Valerio Aboian

Ends Apr 22, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $17.32K
Potential profit: $17.32K
User PnL: -$17.32

Platense position

Platense vs. San Martin de Corrientes

Ends Apr 24, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $14.49K
Potential profit: $14.49K
User PnL: -$39.19

Estevez position

Tigre 2: Juan Estevez vs Carlos Sanchez Jover

Ends Mar 2, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $13.58K
Potential profit: $13.58K
User PnL: -$13.58

Yes position

Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $10.11K
Potential profit: $10.11K
User PnL: -$20.34

Miomir Kecmanovic position

BMW Open: Alexander Zverev vs Miomir Kecmanovic

Ends Apr 20, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $10K
Potential profit: $10K
User PnL: -$20

Yes position

Will Park Hong-keun win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election

Ends Jun 3, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $10K
Potential profit: $10K
User PnL: -$20

Berfu Cengiz position

Antalya 3: Berfu Cengiz vs Dominika Salkova

Ends Mar 17, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $10K
Potential profit: $10K
User PnL: -$20

Sinja Kraus position

BNP Paribas Open, Qualification: Sinja Kraus vs Storm Hunter

Ends Mar 9, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $10K
Potential profit: $10K
User PnL: -$20

Tormo position

Oeiras 2: Sara Sorribes Tormo vs Teodora Kostovic

Ends Feb 24, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $10K
Potential profit: $10K
User PnL: -$20

Thiago Monteiro position

Santiago: Thiago Monteiro vs Genaro Alberto Olivieri

Ends Mar 21, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $10K
Potential profit: $10K
User PnL: -$20

Yes position

Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 31?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $10K
Potential profit: $10K
User PnL: -$20

Yes position

Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?

Ends Apr 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $10K
Potential profit: $10K
User PnL: -$20

Yes position

Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $10K
Potential profit: $10K
User PnL: -$20

Yes position

Will Eduardo Bolsonaro finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

Ends Oct 4, 2026

Implied probability: 0.2%
Current value: $15
Potential payout: $10K
Potential profit: $9.99K
Multiplier: 666.67x
User PnL: -$5

No position

Will Meta (META) close at <$600 on the final day of trading of the week of Mar 16 – Mar 20?

Ends Mar 20, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $10K
Potential profit: $10K
User PnL: -$20

Anisimova position

Qatar Total Open: Amanda Anisimova vs Karolina Pliskova

Ends Feb 16, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $10K
Potential profit: $10K
User PnL: -$20

No position

Will "Louis Theroux: Inside The Manosphere" be the #2 global Netflix movie this week?

Ends Mar 17, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $10K
Potential profit: $10K
User PnL: -$20

Timofey Skatov position

Oeiras 3: Timofey Skatov vs Luca Van Assche

Ends Apr 20, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $7.76K
Potential profit: $7.76K
User PnL: -$7.76

Yes position

Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0.5%
Current value: $30
Potential payout: $6.67K
Potential profit: $6.64K
Multiplier: 222.22x
User PnL: $10

Franco Agamenone position

Menorca: Alejandro Moro Canas vs Franco Agamenone

Ends Apr 6, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $6.67K
Potential profit: $6.67K
User PnL: -$20

Zeynep Sonmez position

Porsche Tennis Grand Prix: Leylah Fernandez vs Zeynep Sonmez

Ends Apr 23, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $6.67K
Potential profit: $6.67K
User PnL: -$20

Resolved Context

Closed positions

Over position

Mavericks vs. Bucks: O/U 218.5

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.52K

Yes position

Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 78.4%
Multiplier: 1.28x
User PnL: $908.69

No position

Gemini 3.5 released by May 31?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $515.04

Yes position

Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from February 27 to March 6, 2026?

Ends Mar 6, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $132.73

No position

Epstein suicide note released by May 8?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $99.32

No position

Will Polymarket mindshare hit 85%?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $89.91

Yes position

Will Hezbollah disarm by March 31?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $81.33

No position

Solstice FDV above $50M one day after launch?

Ends Jan 1, 2027

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $79.2

Yes position

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $24.98

Yes position

U.S. forces seize another oil tanker by April 30?

Ends Apr 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $20.42

Yes position

Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of February 2026?

Ends Feb 28, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $10.77

Yes position

Will the price of XRP be between $1.40 and $1.50 on February 1?

Ends Feb 1, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $10.02

Yes position

Will Juan Branco win the 2027 French presidential election?

Ends Apr 30, 2027

Implied probability: 0.7%
Multiplier: 153.85x
User PnL: $6.97

Yes position

Will Scream 7 have the best domestic opening weekend in 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $0.49

No position

Will Travis Scott perform during the Super Bowl LX halftime show?

Ends Feb 9, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: -$0.01

Yes position

Will Bubba Watson win the 2026 Masters tournament?

Ends Apr 13, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$0.06

Yes position

Will England win?

Ends Feb 14, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: -$0.12

Yes position

Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election?

Ends Apr 30, 2027

Implied probability: 0.7%
Multiplier: 153.85x
User PnL: -$5.71

No position

Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 12, 2026?

Ends Feb 28, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$7.64

Yes position

Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election?

Ends Apr 30, 2027

Implied probability: 0.6%
Multiplier: 181.82x
User PnL: -$10

Cameron Norrie position

Miami Open: Alex Michelsen vs Cameron Norrie

Ends Mar 28, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$20

Daniil Glinka position

Cherbourg: Daniil Glinka vs Dan Added

Ends Mar 16, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$20

Darwin Blanch position

US Men's Clay Court Championships, Qualification: Jack Pinnington Jones vs Darwin Blanch

Ends Apr 5, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$20

Darwin Blanch position

Phoenix: Darwin Blanch vs Billy Harris

Ends Mar 19, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$20

Trades

Recent trades

Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.

Will Juan Branco win the 2027 French presidential election?

Yes 1.1% 2,500 shares
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election?

Yes 0.7% 10,000 shares
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election?

Yes 0.5% 2,857.15 shares
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election?

Yes 0.5% 27,619.11 shares
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election?

Yes 0.5% 23,333.38 shares
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election?

Yes 0.5% 36,666.74 shares
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election?

Yes 0.6% 3,333.34 shares
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election?

Yes 0.6% 3,333.34 shares
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election?

Yes 0.6% 3,333.34 shares
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election?

Yes 0.6% 3,333.34 shares
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election?

Yes 0.6% 3,333.34 shares
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election?

Yes 0.6% 3,333.34 shares