Yes position
Iran leadership change by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 18.5%
- Current value
- $195.73
- Potential payout
- $1.06K
- Potential profit
- $862.29
- Multiplier
- 5.41x
- User PnL
- -$498.35
Polymarket Trader
Gillll
0x969cd41e9f3d3367b0a43fff2767fcfcf129c17d
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $195.73
- Realized PnL
- $77.14
- Win rate
- 50%
- Open positions
- 8
- Closed positions
- 4
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
Yes position
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $714.29
- Potential profit
- $714.29
- User PnL
- -$200
No position
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 21?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $522.51
- Potential profit
- $522.51
- User PnL
- -$15
Yes position
Iran leadership change by April 30?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $426.25
- Potential profit
- $426.25
- User PnL
- -$67.75
Yes position
Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 6?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $380.71
- Potential profit
- $380.71
- User PnL
- -$150
Yes position
Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $294.12
- Potential profit
- $294.12
- User PnL
- -$100
Up position
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET
Ends Mar 8, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $95.73
- Potential profit
- $95.73
- User PnL
- -$29.66
No position
US strikes Iraq by March 7?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $16.25
- Potential profit
- $16.25
- User PnL
- -$7.8
Resolved Context
Closed positions
Yes position
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $129.05
Yes position
Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $104.09
Yes position
US strikes Iran by January 25, 2026?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$8
Yes position
US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$148
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 21?No 2.9% 522.51 shares
- Iran leadership change by December 31?Yes 29% 104.63 shares
- Iran leadership change by April 30?Yes 15.9% 426.25 shares
- Iran leadership change by December 31?Yes 39% 173.73 shares
- Iran leadership change by December 31?Yes 65.6% 1,336.38 shares
- Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 7:30PM-7:35PM ETUp 31% 94.63 shares
- Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 31?Yes 99.9% 454.54 shares
- US strikes Iraq by March 7?No 48% 16.25 shares
- Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 31?Yes 77% 454.55 shares
- Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 6?Yes 39.4% 380.71 shares
- Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?Yes 71% 463.45 shares
- US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?Yes 24% 104.17 shares