No position
Will Ben McAdams be the Democratic nominee for UT-01?
Ends Jun 23, 2026- Implied probability
- 13%
- Current value
- $8.73
- Potential payout
- $67.14
- Potential profit
- $58.41
- Multiplier
- 7.69x
- User PnL
- -$4.57
Polymarket Trader
orcas233333333
0x970e6d8ed878bac7347c2f4cab86dfbce5acb78d
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $22.92
- Realized PnL
- $6.99
- Win rate
- 54.2%
- Open positions
- 10
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
Yes position
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 16?
Ends Jun 16, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $30.33
- Potential profit
- $30.33
- User PnL
- -$7.89
No position
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the second round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election by 5-10%?
Ends Jun 22, 2026- Implied probability
- 55.5%
- Current value
- $12.8
- Potential payout
- $23.06
- Potential profit
- $10.26
- Multiplier
- 1.80x
- User PnL
- -$4.96
Yes position
Will MrBeast's next video get between 47 and 48 million views on day 3?
Ends Jun 16, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $22
- Potential profit
- $22
- User PnL
- -$5.32
Y
Yes position
Will MrBeast's next video get between 52.5 and 53 million views on day 5?
Ends Jun 18, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $20
- Potential profit
- $20
- User PnL
- -$3.4
Y
Yes position
Will the US government rescind its ban on all foreign use of Claude Fable 5 by June 15?
Ends Jun 16, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $20
- Potential profit
- $20
- User PnL
- -$2.4
Y
Yes position
Will the announcers say "Crossbar" during the Czechia vs South Africa FIFA World Cup Match?
Ends Jun 18, 2026- Implied probability
- 2.5%
- Current value
- $0.5
- Potential payout
- $20
- Potential profit
- $19.5
- Multiplier
- 40.00x
- User PnL
- -$7.3
Y
Yes position
Will Hamad bin Isa Al Khalifa attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony?
Ends Jul 7, 2026- Implied probability
- 6.6%
- Current value
- $0.59
- Potential payout
- $9
- Potential profit
- $8.41
- Multiplier
- 15.27x
- User PnL
- -$0.58
No position
Will the announcers say "Ronaldo" during the England vs Croatia FIFA World Cup Match?
Ends Jun 17, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $3
- Potential profit
- $3
- User PnL
- -$2.04
No position
Will Richard Gordon Thomson win the 2026 Aberdeen South by-election?
Ends Jun 19, 2026- Implied probability
- 25.5%
- Current value
- $0.3
- Potential payout
- $1.18
- Potential profit
- $0.88
- Multiplier
- 3.92x
- User PnL
- $0.12
Resolved Context
Closed positions
No position
Will Brian Bjelde be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating SpaceX's IPO?
Ends Jun 13, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $1.8
N
No position
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16?
Ends Jun 18, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.9%
- User PnL
- $1.5
No position
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 30.9%
- Multiplier
- 3.24x
- User PnL
- $1.11
Y
Yes position
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16?
Ends Jun 18, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.2%
- Multiplier
- 666.67x
- User PnL
- $0.5
Yes position
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 17, 2026?
Ends Jun 18, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $0.4
N
No position
Will Iran close its airspace by June 11?
Ends Jun 12, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.4
Yes position
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 17?
Ends Jun 17, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.39
No position
Will JD Vance sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?
Ends Aug 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $0.33
No position
Will MrBeast's next video get between 39 and 41 million views on day 2?
Ends Jun 16, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $0.24
Y
Yes position
Will Warsh say "Trump" during June Press Conference?
Ends Jun 18, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $0.2
Yes position
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on last trading day of IPO month?
Ends Jul 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 48.5%
- Multiplier
- 2.06x
- User PnL
- $0.15
Yes position
Will MrBeast's next video get between 46 and 47 million views on day 3?
Ends Jun 16, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $0.05
No position
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 16, 2026?
Ends Jun 17, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.02
N
No position
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 19?
Ends Jun 20, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $0
No position
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 19?
Ends Jun 19, 2026- Implied probability
- 89.8%
- Multiplier
- 1.11x
- User PnL
- $0
Yes position
Will MrBeast's next video get between 45 and 46 million views on day 3?
Ends Jun 16, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0
No position
Will MrBeast's next video get between 46 and 47 million views on day 3?
Ends Jun 16, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0
N
No position
Will Morocco finish second in Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage?
Ends Jul 12, 2026- Implied probability
- 53%
- Multiplier
- 1.89x
- User PnL
- $0
Yes position
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 8.5%
- Multiplier
- 11.76x
- User PnL
- $0
No position
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026?
Ends Jun 19, 2026- Implied probability
- 57.4%
- Multiplier
- 1.74x
- User PnL
- -$0
Yes position
Will the announcers say "President" during the England vs Croatia FIFA World Cup Match?
Ends Jun 17, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$0
Yes position
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 3.4%
- Multiplier
- 29.41x
- User PnL
- -$0
Y
Yes position
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17?
Ends Jun 18, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- -$0
No position
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0.2–0.3%?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 7.1%
- Multiplier
- 14.08x
- User PnL
- -$0.1
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0.2–0.3%?No 4% 0.18 shares
- Will Morocco finish second in Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage?No 50% 40.78 shares
- Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 13 launch by August 31?No 19% 41 shares
- Will Iran close its airspace by June 11?No 83% 21.2 shares
- Will the close USD/JPY price at the end of 2026 be less than 140?No 87% 5.84 shares
- Next Mythos-Class Model released by July 31, 2026?Yes 41% 39.15 shares