Polymarket Trader

sam-musk

0x973bd30ed6c635fc8c4b673f9a0d7313d16b0a46

Public profile Partial data Delayed section

Open value: $279.49
Realized PnL: $281.82
Win rate: 87.5%
Open positions: 3
Closed positions: 24
Markets traded: Unavailable

Current Predictions

Open positions

Yes position

Will Trump visit China by June 30?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
Current value: $100
Potential payout: $100
Potential profit: $0
User PnL: $13

No position

Opensea FDV above $1B one day after launch?

Ends Jan 1, 2027

Implied probability: 86.5%
Current value: $86.5
Potential payout: $100
Potential profit: $13.5
Multiplier: 1.16x
User PnL: $10.5

Yes position

Will Anthropic’s market cap be $600B or greater at market close on IPO day by December 31, 2027?

Ends Dec 31, 2027

Implied probability: 93%
Current value: $92.99
Potential payout: $99.99
Potential profit: $7
Multiplier: 1.08x
User PnL: $14

Resolved Context

Closed positions

No position

Fabric FDV above $400M one day after launch?

Ends Jan 1, 2027

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $89.98

Yes position

Fabric FDV above $300M one day after launch?

Ends Jan 1, 2027

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $67.2

Yes position

Will Claude by Anthropic be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on March 6?

Ends Mar 6, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $41.89

No position

Opinion FDV above $500M one day after launch?

Ends Jan 1, 2027

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $19.89

Yes position

Will NCAA March Madness Live be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on March 20?

Ends Mar 20, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $19.16

Yes position

Fabric FDV above $200M one day after launch?

Ends Jan 1, 2027

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $14.23

Yes position

Opinion FDV above $250M one day after launch?

Ends Jan 1, 2027

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $11.2

Yes position

Will ChatGPT be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on March 10?

Ends Mar 10, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $6.04

Yes position

Opinion FDV above $500M one day after launch?

Ends Jan 1, 2027

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $3.24

Yes position

Will ChatGPT be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on March 24?

Ends Mar 24, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $3.12

Yes position

Will ChatGPT be #2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on March 6?

Ends Mar 6, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $2

Yes position

Will Opinion launch a token by March 31, 2026?

Ends Jan 1, 2027

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.78

Yes position

US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?

Ends Jan 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.75

Yes position

Bitway FDV above $50M one day after launch?

Ends Jan 1, 2027

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.5

Yes position

Will Opinion launch a token on March 5?

Ends Apr 1, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.05

Yes position

ZachXBT investigation post over 4M views on day one?

Ends Mar 2, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1

Yes position

ZachXBT investigation post over 2M views on day one?

Ends Mar 2, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.43

Yes position

Fabric FDV above $100M one day after launch?

Ends Jan 1, 2027

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.25

No position

Will Trump visit China by March 31?

Ends Oct 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.1

Yes position

Will ChatGPT be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on March 17?

Ends Mar 17, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.04

Yes position

Will Backpack launch a token by March 31?

Ends Jan 1, 2027

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.02

Yes position

Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?

Ends Feb 28, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: -$0.84

Yes position

Will Wintermute be accused of insider trading?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$1

Yes position

Fabric FDV above $400M one day after launch?

Ends Jan 1, 2027

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$2.2

Trades

Recent trades

Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.

Will Anthropic’s market cap be $600B or greater at market close on IPO day by December 31, 2027?

Yes 79% 20.63 shares
Will Anthropic’s market cap be $600B or greater at market close on IPO day by December 31, 2027?

Yes 30.9% 120 shares
Will Trump visit China by March 31?

No 99.9% 100 shares
Will Trump visit China by April 30?

Yes 2.9% 110 shares
Will Trump visit China by June 30?

Yes 87% 100 shares
Will ChatGPT be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on March 24?

Yes 99.9% 26.2 shares
Will Trump visit China by April 30?

Yes 39.5% 110 shares
Will ChatGPT be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on March 24?

Yes 88% 18.05 shares
Will NCAA March Madness Live be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on March 20?

Yes 99.9% 62 shares
Will NCAA March Madness Live be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on March 20?

Yes 69% 62 shares
Will ChatGPT be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on March 17?

Yes 99.9% 41 shares
Will Trump visit China by April 30?

No 22% 130 shares