mrmuller

Implied probability: 6.5%
Current value: $22.72
Potential payout: $349.5
Potential profit: $326.79
Multiplier: 15.38x
User PnL: $1.75

Yes position

Will Anthropic's valuation hit (LOW) $800B by December 31?

Implied probability: 8.5%
Current value: $25.5
Potential payout: $300
Potential profit: $274.5
Multiplier: 11.76x
User PnL: $3.21

Yes position

Will Anthropic's valuation hit (LOW) $700B by December 31?

Implied probability: 8.5%
Current value: $25.5
Potential payout: $299.98
Potential profit: $274.48
Multiplier: 11.76x
User PnL: $1.43

No position

2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House

Ends Nov 3, 2026

Implied probability: 58.5%
Current value: $146.25
Potential payout: $250
Potential profit: $103.75
Multiplier: 1.71x
User PnL: $21.25

Yes position

2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House

Ends Nov 3, 2026

Implied probability: 41.5%
Current value: $103.75
Potential payout: $250
Potential profit: $146.25
Multiplier: 2.41x
User PnL: -$21.25

Yes position

Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by December 31?

Implied probability: 8%
Current value: $16.02
Potential payout: $200.24
Potential profit: $184.22
Multiplier: 12.50x
User PnL: $1.38

Yes position

Will Stripe's valuation hit (HIGH) $300B by December 31?

Implied probability: 12.5%
Current value: $25
Potential payout: $200
Potential profit: $175
Multiplier: 8.00x
User PnL: $0.6

Yes position

Will OpenAI's valuation hit (LOW) $500B by December 31?

Implied probability: 7.5%
Current value: $14.57
Potential payout: $194.21
Potential profit: $179.65
Multiplier: 13.33x
User PnL: -$7.71

Yes position

Will Anthropic's valuation hit (LOW) $600B by December 31?

Implied probability: 8.5%
Current value: $10.82
Potential payout: $127.28
Potential profit: $116.46
Multiplier: 11.76x
User PnL: -$2.18

Yes position

Will Stripe's valuation hit (HIGH) $500B by December 31?

Implied probability: 7.5%
Current value: $9.38
Potential payout: $125.01
Potential profit: $115.63
Multiplier: 13.33x
User PnL: $0.78

Yes position

Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $4.0T by December 31?

Implied probability: 10.5%
Current value: $11.8
Potential payout: $112.38
Potential profit: $100.58
Multiplier: 9.52x
User PnL: $0.05

Yes position

Will OpenAI's valuation hit (LOW) $600B by December 31?

Implied probability: 16.5%
Current value: $17.26
Potential payout: $104.64
Potential profit: $87.37
Multiplier: 6.06x
User PnL: -$1.72

Yes position

Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by December 31?

Implied probability: 21.5%
Current value: $21.68
Potential payout: $100.84
Potential profit: $79.16
Multiplier: 4.65x
User PnL: -$0.52

Yes position

Will Databricks' valuation hit (HIGH) $200B by December 31?

Implied probability: 28.5%
Current value: $19.57
Potential payout: $68.71
Potential profit: $49.13
Multiplier: 3.51x
User PnL: $0.42

Yes position

Will Anduril's valuation hit (HIGH) $200B by December 31?

Implied probability: 7.5%
Current value: $5.02
Potential payout: $66.92
Potential profit: $61.9
Multiplier: 13.33x
User PnL: -$0.21

Yes position

Will Databricks' valuation hit (HIGH) $300B by December 31?

Implied probability: 9.5%
Current value: $5.91
Potential payout: $62.2
Potential profit: $56.29
Multiplier: 10.53x
User PnL: -$0.09

Yes position

Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by December 31?

Implied probability: 8.5%
Current value: $4.25
Potential payout: $50.01
Potential profit: $45.76
Multiplier: 11.76x
User PnL: -$3.49

Yes position

Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $4.0T by December 31?

Implied probability: 6.5%
Current value: $3.25
Potential payout: $50
Potential profit: $46.75
Multiplier: 15.38x
User PnL: -$0.75

Yes position

Will OpenAI's valuation hit (LOW) $700B by December 31?

Implied probability: 30%
Current value: $12.75
Potential payout: $42.5
Potential profit: $29.75
Multiplier: 3.33x
User PnL: -$1.63

Yes position

Will Databricks' valuation hit (HIGH) $250B by December 31?

Implied probability: 9.5%
Current value: $3.8
Potential payout: $40
Potential profit: $36.2
Multiplier: 10.53x
User PnL: -$0.2

Yes position

Will Neuralink's valuation hit (LOW) $25B by December 31?

Implied probability: 13%
Current value: $4.27
Potential payout: $32.87
Potential profit: $28.59
Multiplier: 7.69x
User PnL: $0.41

Yes position

Will Databricks' valuation hit (HIGH) $225B by December 31?

Implied probability: 16%
Current value: $3.71
Potential payout: $23.17
Potential profit: $19.46
Multiplier: 6.25x
User PnL: -$0.69

Yes position

Will Neuralink's valuation hit (HIGH) $100B by December 31?

Implied probability: 9.5%
Current value: $2.09
Potential payout: $22.05
Potential profit: $19.95
Multiplier: 10.53x
User PnL: -$0.14

Yes position

Will Canva's valuation hit (HIGH) $100B by December 31?

Implied probability: 8%
Current value: $1.69
Potential payout: $21.11
Potential profit: $19.42
Multiplier: 12.50x
User PnL: -$0.21

Resolved Context

Closed positions

Yes position

Clavicular pregnancy in 2026?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $31.41

Yes position

Will there be no coalition by October 31?

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $23.75

Yes position

Will the next Dutch government be another combination?

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $21.04

Yes position

Will inflation reach more than 5% in 2026?

Implied probability: 13.5%
Multiplier: 7.41x
User PnL: $18.36

Yes position

Ukraine agrees to US-approved peace plan by Thursday?

Ends Nov 27, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $17.06

Yes position

Will the next Dutch government be PVV + VVD + CDA + JA21?

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $15.94

Yes position

Will the next Dutch government be PVV + VVD + JA21 + D66?

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $15

Yes position

Kristi Noem out by March 31?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $15

Yes position

Serbian Parliamentary Election called before 2027?

Implied probability: 37.5%
Multiplier: 2.67x
User PnL: $13.88

Yes position

Will inflation reach more than 4% in 2026?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $13.51

Yes position

Will xAI have the best AI model for coding on March 31?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $13.46

Yes position

Will Extended launch a token by June 30 2026?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 2.2%
Multiplier: 45.45x
User PnL: $13.25

Yes position

Will the next Dutch government be PVV + CDA + JA21?

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $12.78

Yes position

Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 6.5%
Multiplier: 15.38x
User PnL: $12.3

Yes position

Will Our Homeland Movement (Mi Hazánk) win the most seats in the next Hungarian parliamentary election?

Ends Apr 12, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $11.6

Yes position

Israel election: will Likud lose seats?

Ends Oct 27, 2026

Implied probability: 78.5%
Multiplier: 1.27x
User PnL: $11.1

Yes position

Will Rabby launch a token by September 30, 2026?

Implied probability: 11%
Multiplier: 9.09x
User PnL: $10.93

No position

Citrea FDV above $300M one day after launch?

Ends Jan 1, 2028

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $10.47

No position

Will no CEO be announced in 2025?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $10.45

Yes position

Ebola pandemic in 2026?

Implied probability: 8.5%
Multiplier: 11.76x
User PnL: $10.29

Yes position

Will Hyperliquid perform an airdrop by December 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 17%
Multiplier: 5.88x
User PnL: $10.16

Yes position

Will inflation reach more than 6% in 2026?

Implied probability: 6.5%
Multiplier: 15.38x
User PnL: $9.82

Yes position

Will US withdraw from NATO before 2027?

Implied probability: 5.6%
Multiplier: 18.02x
User PnL: $9.79

Yes position

Will the next Dutch government be GL/PvdA + VVD + CDA?