Polymarket Trader

Mr.Burns

0x97b15a57e3b9236ec7ef99b568affd5692411a63

Public profile Partial data Delayed section

Open value: $204.59
Realized PnL: $93.19
Win rate: 100%
Open positions: 24
Closed positions: 24
Markets traded: Unavailable

Current Predictions

Open positions

Yes position

Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jul 20, 2026

Implied probability: 6.8%
Current value: $155.61
Potential payout: $2.31K
Potential profit: $2.15K
Multiplier: 14.81x
User PnL: -$58.3

Yes position

Will China blockade Taiwan by June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0.3%
Current value: $0.72
Potential payout: $238.91
Potential profit: $238.2
Multiplier: 333.33x
User PnL: -$4.4

Yes position

Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?

Ends Oct 10, 2026

Implied probability: 1.1%
Current value: $2.23
Potential payout: $212.86
Potential profit: $210.62
Multiplier: 95.24x
User PnL: -$0.74

Yes position

Trump out as President by May 31?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $125
Potential profit: $125
User PnL: -$2.5

Yes position

Hantavirus lab leak confirmed by June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0.3%
Current value: $0.28
Potential payout: $92.33
Potential profit: $92.06
Multiplier: 333.33x
User PnL: -$2.49

Yes position

Will Russia invade another country in 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 8.5%
Current value: $7.34
Potential payout: $86.34
Potential profit: $79
Multiplier: 11.76x
User PnL: -$2.03

Yes position

Will any country leave NATO by June 30, 2026?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0.3%
Current value: $0.25
Potential payout: $83.33
Potential profit: $83.08
Multiplier: 333.33x
User PnL: -$2.25

Yes position

Will Venezuela become 51st state?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 3.9%
Current value: $2.61
Potential payout: $67.8
Potential profit: $65.19
Multiplier: 25.97x
User PnL: -$1.39

Yes position

EU dissolves before 2027?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 3.3%
Current value: $2.2
Potential payout: $67.57
Potential profit: $65.37
Multiplier: 30.77x
User PnL: -$0.3

Yes position

State of Siege declared in Chile by June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0.2%
Current value: $0.1
Potential payout: $65.24
Potential profit: $65.14
Multiplier: 666.67x
User PnL: -$4.82

Yes position

Will US withdraw from NATO before 2027?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 5.5%
Current value: $3.42
Potential payout: $62.74
Potential profit: $59.32
Multiplier: 18.35x
User PnL: -$1.16

Yes position

Will China unban Bitcoin by 2027?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 3.3%
Current value: $2.03
Potential payout: $62.5
Potential profit: $60.47
Multiplier: 30.77x
User PnL: -$0.47

Yes position

China coup attempt before 2027?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 4.1%
Current value: $2.37
Potential payout: $58.5
Potential profit: $56.13
Multiplier: 24.69x
User PnL: -$0.56

Yes position

Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arabia by December 31, 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 5.5%
Current value: $3.14
Potential payout: $57.14
Potential profit: $54
Multiplier: 18.18x
User PnL: -$0.86

Yes position

Will Russia test a nuclear weapon by December 31 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 10%
Current value: $5.64
Potential payout: $56.71
Potential profit: $51.07
Multiplier: 10.05x
User PnL: $1.64

Yes position

Trump renames Strait of Hormuz to "Strait of Trump" by May 31?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $55.56
Potential profit: $55.56
User PnL: -$2.5

Yes position

Will Russia invade a NATO country by June 30, 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 0.3%
Current value: $0.16
Potential payout: $53.55
Potential profit: $53.39
Multiplier: 333.33x
User PnL: -$1.5

Yes position

Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 4.1%
Current value: $2.18
Potential payout: $53.17
Potential profit: $50.99
Multiplier: 24.39x
User PnL: -$2.02

Yes position

Ebola pandemic in 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 7.5%
Current value: $3.75
Potential payout: $50
Potential profit: $46.25
Multiplier: 13.33x
User PnL: $0.25

Yes position

Will North Korea invade South Korea before 2027?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 5.9%
Current value: $2.9
Potential payout: $49.23
Potential profit: $46.33
Multiplier: 16.95x
User PnL: -$0.3

Yes position

Miguel Díaz-Canel out as President of Cuba by June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 1.2%
Current value: $0.55
Potential payout: $48
Potential profit: $47.44
Multiplier: 86.96x
User PnL: -$10.69

Yes position

Russia coup attempt in 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 8.5%
Current value: $3.99
Potential payout: $46.91
Potential profit: $42.92
Multiplier: 11.76x
User PnL: -$1.17

Yes position

Will Trump visit North Korea by June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0.5%
Current value: $0.23
Potential payout: $46.3
Potential profit: $46.06
Multiplier: 200.00x
User PnL: -$2.27

Yes position

Zohran Mamdani out as mayor of NYC before 2027?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 6.5%
Current value: $2.89
Potential payout: $44.44
Potential profit: $41.56
Multiplier: 15.38x
User PnL: -$1.11

Resolved Context

Closed positions

Yes position

Starmer out by June 30, 2026?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $15.32

Yes position

Canada recession before 2027?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $15.31

Yes position

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $11.67

Yes position

Rodrigo Paz out as President of Bolivia by June 30, 2026?

Ends Jul 1, 2026

Implied probability: 1.8%
Multiplier: 57.14x
User PnL: $6.96

Yes position

Ebola case in the US by June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 5%
Multiplier: 20.00x
User PnL: $4.35

Yes position

Cuban regime falls in 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 20.5%
Multiplier: 4.88x
User PnL: $3.94

Yes position

Ex-Cuba leader Raul Castro in US custody by June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 1.5%
Multiplier: 68.97x
User PnL: $3.53

Yes position

Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16?

Ends Jun 17, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $3.38

Yes position

Spain snap election called in 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 42.5%
Multiplier: 2.35x
User PnL: $3.19

Yes position

Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by December 31, 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 32%
Multiplier: 3.13x
User PnL: $3.18

Yes position

Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 16.5%
Multiplier: 6.06x
User PnL: $2.81

Yes position

Joseph Aoun out as President of Lebanon by December 31?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 12.5%
Multiplier: 8.00x
User PnL: $2.49

Yes position

Will France win on 2026-06-16?

Ends Jun 16, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $2.4

Yes position

Will Neymar play in the World Cup?

Ends Jul 19, 2026

Implied probability: 91.5%
Multiplier: 1.09x
User PnL: $1.86

Yes position

Will a new country join the Abraham Accords before 2027?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 47.5%
Multiplier: 2.11x
User PnL: $1.83

Yes position

Sanae Takaichi out as Prime Minister of Japan in 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 12%
Multiplier: 8.33x
User PnL: $1.7

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET

Ends Apr 26, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.44

Yes position

Ukraine election held by December 31, 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 9.5%
Multiplier: 10.53x
User PnL: $1.33

Yes position

Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election?

Ends Nov 7, 2028

Implied probability: 15.1%
Multiplier: 6.64x
User PnL: $1.18

Yes position

Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?

Ends Nov 3, 2026

Implied probability: 19.5%
Multiplier: 5.13x
User PnL: $1.15

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET

Ends Apr 27, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.13

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET

Ends Apr 28, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.08

Yes position

US x China Military clash before 2027?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 7.5%
Multiplier: 13.33x
User PnL: $1.07

Yes position

US strike on Colombia by December 31?

Ends Jan 31, 2026

Implied probability: 24%
Multiplier: 4.17x
User PnL: $0.91

Trades

Recent trades

Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.

Will Russia invade another country in 2026?

Yes 10.9% 86.34 shares
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17?

Yes 76% 13.84 shares
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16?

Yes 99.9% 10.58 shares
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16?

Yes 68% 10.59 shares
Will France win on 2026-06-16?

Yes 99.9% 7.28 shares
Will France win on 2026-06-16?

Yes 67% 7.28 shares
US strike on Colombia by December 31?

Yes 27% 18.18 shares
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Card)

Ilia Topuria 79% 6.7 shares
Ukraine election held by December 31, 2026?

Yes 12% 44.44 shares
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Card)

Ilia Topuria 79% 4.49 shares
US x China Military clash before 2027?

Yes 10% 35.71 shares
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Card)

Ilia Topuria 80% 3.88 shares