No position
Will JP Morgan (JPM) Q2 investment banking fees be above $3.0B?
Ends Jul 14, 2026- Implied probability
- 27.5%
- Current value
- $60.76
- Potential payout
- $220.96
- Potential profit
- $160.2
- Multiplier
- 3.64x
- User PnL
- -$1.1
Polymarket Trader
schaar22
0x98009f2643e45c779b892b7de6ac868455fe9a33
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $580.21
- Realized PnL
- -$40.53
- Win rate
- 50%
- Open positions
- 10
- Closed positions
- 22
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
No position
Will Adriano Espaillat be the Democratic Nominee for NY-13?
Ends Jun 23, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- Current value
- $149.28
- Potential payout
- $149.28
- Potential profit
- $0
- User PnL
- $95.54
Yes position
Will Durable Goods Orders MoM be below -4% in May?
Ends Jun 25, 2026- Implied probability
- 46%
- Current value
- $55.42
- Potential payout
- $120.62
- Potential profit
- $65.2
- Multiplier
- 2.18x
- User PnL
- -$7.69
No position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?
Ends Jul 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 76.5%
- Current value
- $78.36
- Potential payout
- $102.43
- Potential profit
- $24.07
- Multiplier
- 1.31x
- User PnL
- $12.95
Yes position
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?
Ends Jul 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 22.5%
- Current value
- $21.81
- Potential payout
- $96.92
- Potential profit
- $75.11
- Multiplier
- 4.44x
- User PnL
- -$44.1
Yes position
Will GPT-5.6 not be released by June 28, 2026?
Ends Jun 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 90.4%
- Current value
- $83.9
- Potential payout
- $92.86
- Potential profit
- $8.96
- Multiplier
- 1.11x
- User PnL
- $21.68
No position
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.8%
- Current value
- $49.25
- Potential payout
- $49.37
- Potential profit
- $0.12
- User PnL
- $9.26
No position
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of June?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.6%
- Current value
- $29.88
- Potential payout
- $30.02
- Potential profit
- $0.14
- User PnL
- $9.17
No position
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.7%
- Current value
- $27.46
- Potential payout
- $27.56
- Potential profit
- $0.1
- User PnL
- $6.79
No position
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 90.5%
- Current value
- $24.07
- Potential payout
- $26.6
- Potential profit
- $2.53
- Multiplier
- 1.10x
- User PnL
- $3.06
Resolved Context
Closed positions
Yes position
US forces enter Iran by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $13.31
No position
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $72,000 and $74,000 on April 13?
Ends Apr 13, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $12.07
No position
Will Fidesz–KDNP win the most seats in the next Hungarian parliamentary election?
Ends Apr 12, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $7.27
No position
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in March?
Ends Apr 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $3.76
Yes position
US forces enter Iran by April 30?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $3.18
No position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026?
Ends Apr 22, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.75
No position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.46
No position
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 21, 2026?
Ends Apr 21, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.01
Yes position
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18?
Ends Jun 18, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.8
No position
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.35
No position
US x Iran ceasefire by April 30?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $1.09
Yes position
Xi Jinping out before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 6.7%
- Multiplier
- 15.04x
- User PnL
- $0
Yes position
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 2%
- Multiplier
- 51.28x
- User PnL
- -$0.03
Yes position
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$0.88
No position
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by April 15, 2026?
Ends Apr 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- -$5.36
No position
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 86.5%
- Multiplier
- 1.16x
- User PnL
- -$5.44
Yes position
US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by April 15?
Ends Apr 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$5.46
Yes position
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in March?
Ends Apr 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- -$7.46
No position
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of March?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- -$9.58
Yes position
Will Tisza win the national list vote in the 2026 Hungarian Parliamentary election by 15-18%?
Ends Apr 12, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$15.8
Yes position
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 on April 13?
Ends Apr 14, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$20.77
Yes position
Will voter turnout be 80%+ in the 2026 Hungarian parliamentary election?
Ends Apr 12, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$20.83
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Will GPT-5.6 not be released by June 28, 2026?Yes 67% 92.86 shares
- Will JP Morgan (JPM) Q2 investment banking fees be above $3.0B?No 28% 220.96 shares
- Will Durable Goods Orders MoM be below -4% in May?Yes 52.3% 120.62 shares
- Will Adriano Espaillat be the Democratic Nominee for NY-13?No 36% 22.59 shares
- Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?Yes 68% 96.92 shares
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?No 63.9% 102.43 shares
- Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18?Yes 64% 5 shares
- Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 on April 13?Yes 4% 700.55 shares
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?No 66% 35.18 shares
- Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 on April 13?Yes 7% 600.19 shares
- Will the price of Bitcoin be between $72,000 and $74,000 on April 13?No 78.1% 55.14 shares
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026?No 85% 27.46 shares