Yes position
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 12.5%
- Current value
- $2.63K
- Potential payout
- $21.08K
- Potential profit
- $18.44K
- Multiplier
- 8.00x
- User PnL
- -$1.07K
Polymarket Trader
0x981205e2d5d6cCA7e01D9ef248515444cDd0644f-1775695734175
0x981205e2d5d6cca7e01d9ef248515444cdd0644f
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $7.27K
- Realized PnL
- $7.63K
- Win rate
- 95.8%
- Open positions
- 24
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
Yes position
Will the US officially declare war on Iran by December 31, 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 4.5%
- Current value
- $642.86
- Potential payout
- $14.29K
- Potential profit
- $13.64K
- Multiplier
- 22.22x
- User PnL
- -$357.13
No position
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 30?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $13.15K
- Potential profit
- $13.15K
- User PnL
- -$4.39K
No position
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15?
Ends Apr 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $7.66K
- Potential profit
- $7.66K
- User PnL
- -$2.79K
No position
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?
Ends May 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 40.5%
- Current value
- $1.39K
- Potential payout
- $3.43K
- Potential profit
- $2.04K
- Multiplier
- 2.47x
- User PnL
- -$609.68
No position
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $2.98K
- Potential profit
- $2.98K
- User PnL
- -$2K
Yes position
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Ends Jul 20, 2026- Implied probability
- 6.7%
- Current value
- $163.32
- Potential payout
- $2.46K
- Potential profit
- $2.29K
- Multiplier
- 15.04x
- User PnL
- -$56.68
Yes position
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Ends Jul 20, 2026- Implied probability
- 12.9%
- Current value
- $261.2
- Potential payout
- $2.03K
- Potential profit
- $1.77K
- Multiplier
- 7.78x
- User PnL
- $31.2
Yes position
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 2.9%
- Current value
- $56.43
- Potential payout
- $1.98K
- Potential profit
- $1.92K
- Multiplier
- 35.09x
- User PnL
- -$143.57
No position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 88.5%
- Current value
- $1.48K
- Potential payout
- $1.67K
- Potential profit
- $191.81
- Multiplier
- 1.13x
- User PnL
- $175.14
Yes position
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Ends Jul 20, 2026- Implied probability
- 18.5%
- Current value
- $272.97
- Potential payout
- $1.48K
- Potential profit
- $1.21K
- Multiplier
- 5.42x
- User PnL
- $12.98
Yes position
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Ends Jul 20, 2026- Implied probability
- 13.7%
- Current value
- $195.21
- Potential payout
- $1.43K
- Potential profit
- $1.23K
- Multiplier
- 7.33x
- User PnL
- -$34.78
Yes position
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Ends Jul 20, 2026- Implied probability
- 5.9%
- Current value
- $56.25
- Potential payout
- $961.54
- Potential profit
- $905.29
- Multiplier
- 17.09x
- User PnL
- $6.25
Yes position
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Ends Jul 20, 2026- Implied probability
- 7.4%
- Current value
- $70.6
- Potential payout
- $960.61
- Potential profit
- $890
- Multiplier
- 13.61x
- User PnL
- -$29.39
Yes position
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 26, 2026?
Ends Apr 26, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $661.48
- Potential profit
- $661.48
- User PnL
- -$200
Yes position
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Ends Jul 20, 2026- Implied probability
- 11.8%
- Current value
- $40.52
- Potential payout
- $344.83
- Potential profit
- $304.31
- Multiplier
- 8.51x
- User PnL
- $10.52
Yes position
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Ends Jul 20, 2026- Implied probability
- 4%
- Current value
- $11.29
- Potential payout
- $285.71
- Potential profit
- $274.43
- Multiplier
- 25.32x
- User PnL
- $1.29
Down position
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET
Ends May 14, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $73.81
- Potential profit
- $73.81
- User PnL
- -$6
Up position
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET
Ends May 5, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $50
- Potential profit
- $50
- User PnL
- -$1
Down position
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $47.62
- Potential profit
- $47.62
- User PnL
- -$2
Down position
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET
Ends May 14, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $38.16
- Potential profit
- $38.16
- User PnL
- -$6
Up position
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET
Ends May 5, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $14.58
- Potential profit
- $14.58
- User PnL
- -$7.53
Down position
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET
Ends May 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $7.69
- Potential profit
- $7.69
- User PnL
- -$1
Up position
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET
Ends May 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $6.82
- Potential profit
- $6.82
- User PnL
- -$3
Resolved Context
Closed positions
No position
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.12K
No position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.63K
No position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $739.69
No position
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by May 31?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $546.3
No position
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026?
Ends May 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $513.82
No position
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $467.42
No position
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12?
Ends May 29, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $291.77
No position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?
Ends May 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $257.88
Yes position
James Comey arrested by April 29?
Ends May 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $226.57
No position
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 7, 2026?
Ends Jun 7, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $202.18
No position
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026?
Ends May 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $185.83
No position
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 30, 2026?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $180.26
No position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $179.78
Yes position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?
Ends May 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $20.02
No position
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 15, 2026?
Ends May 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $19.21
Down position
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $19
Yes position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $16.46
Up position
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET
Ends May 14, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $7.83
Up position
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET
Ends May 14, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.73
Down position
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET
Ends May 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.03
Down position
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.3
Up position
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.64
Up position
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET
Ends May 14, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.35
Yes position
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026?
Ends May 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 81.3%
- Multiplier
- 1.23x
- User PnL
- -$0.3
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?No 78% 1,667.95 shares
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?Yes 22% 435.71 shares
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?Yes 27% 435.71 shares
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?No 41% 3,226.67 shares
- Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?Yes 17.8% 15,195.14 shares
- US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15?No 42.8% 6,331.42 shares
- US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15?No 62.3% 1,606.27 shares
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?No 52% 1,973.68 shares
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?No 75% 3,226.67 shares
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?No 93% 2,592.59 shares
- US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?No 73% 1,232.88 shares
- US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026?No 95.9% 941.18 shares