No position
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 22, 2026?
Ends Jun 10, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $5.52K
- Potential profit
- $5.52K
- User PnL
- -$51.61
Polymarket Trader
xuwu
0x9898b081ba192690c078b57d22a9c5aeb2b30a7d
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $182.6
- Realized PnL
- $1.61K
- Win rate
- 100%
- Open positions
- 24
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
No position
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 15, 2026?
Ends Jun 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $5.5K
- Potential profit
- $5.5K
- User PnL
- -$36.74
Yes position
Alien abduction at Brazil vs Scotland game in Miami?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $2K
- Potential profit
- $2K
- User PnL
- -$3
No position
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $755 on June 1?
Ends Jun 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $1.5K
- Potential profit
- $1.5K
- User PnL
- -$78
Yes position
Will two SpaceX Starships dock together by December 31, 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 21.5%
- Current value
- $150.5
- Potential payout
- $700.01
- Potential profit
- $549.51
- Multiplier
- 4.65x
- User PnL
- -$8.85
Yes position
Will turnout in the 2026 KY-04 Republican Primary be between 80,000 and 90,000 voters?
Ends May 19, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.6%
- Current value
- $2.45
- Potential payout
- $408.21
- Potential profit
- $405.76
- Multiplier
- 166.67x
- User PnL
- $1.3
No position
Will the lowest temperature in London be 17°C on May 30?
Ends May 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $400
- Potential profit
- $400
- User PnL
- -$1.2
Yes position
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 76-77°F on June 11?
Ends Jun 11, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $306.69
- Potential profit
- $306.69
- User PnL
- -$150.97
No position
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase June 2-8?
Ends Jun 9, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $300.03
- Potential profit
- $300.03
- User PnL
- -$28.55
Yes position
Will turnout in the 2026 KY-04 Republican Primary be between 90,000 and 100,000 voters?
Ends May 19, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.1%
- Current value
- $0.14
- Potential payout
- $289.11
- Potential profit
- $288.97
- Multiplier
- 2000.00x
- User PnL
- -$0.43
Down position
Silver (XAGUSD) Up or Down on May 18?
Ends May 18, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $200
- Potential profit
- $200
- User PnL
- -$0.3
Yes position
Will the next Claude Mythos model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1550?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $200
- Potential profit
- $200
- User PnL
- -$63
No position
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in June?
Ends Jul 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $200
- Potential profit
- $200
- User PnL
- -$2
Yes position
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on May 30?
Ends May 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $140
- Potential profit
- $140
- User PnL
- -$2.1
Yes position
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on May 30?
Ends May 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $121.71
- Potential profit
- $121.71
- User PnL
- -$15.84
No position
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $86 on May 29?
Ends May 29, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $100
- Potential profit
- $100
- User PnL
- -$2
Up position
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 15?
Ends Jun 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $100
- Potential profit
- $100
- User PnL
- -$5
Yes position
Will Walmart Q1 US comparable sales growth be below 3.7%?
Ends May 21, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $100
- Potential profit
- $100
- User PnL
- -$1
Yes position
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $80 in July?
Ends Aug 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 29.5%
- Current value
- $29.5
- Potential payout
- $100
- Potential profit
- $70.5
- Multiplier
- 3.39x
- User PnL
- -$1.5
No position
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $87 on May 29?
Ends May 29, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $99.99
- Potential profit
- $99.99
- User PnL
- -$2
Yes position
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (LOW) $3.00 Week of June 15 2026?
Ends Jun 19, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $99.99
- Potential profit
- $99.99
- User PnL
- -$80.99
Yes position
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 19°C on May 30?
Ends May 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $99.99
- Potential profit
- $99.99
- User PnL
- -$1.2
Yes position
Will Kiambo White be the Democratic nominee for MD-06?
Ends Jun 23, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $80
- Potential profit
- $80
- User PnL
- -$2.54
No position
Will next Claude Mythos debut on the Text Arena Leaderboard at 1480+?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $70
- Potential profit
- $70
- User PnL
- -$23.5
Resolved Context
Closed positions
Yes position
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $3.20 in May?
Ends Jun 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $784.51
Up position
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on May 29?
Ends May 29, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $140.61
Up position
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET
Ends Oct 24, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $48.37
Up position
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 25, 1PM ET
Ends Oct 25, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $44.15
Up position
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET
Ends Oct 29, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $40.67
Down position
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET
Ends Oct 29, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $39.62
Yes position
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $95 Week of May 18 2026?
Ends May 22, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $39.25
Up position
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET
Ends Oct 24, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $36.1
Up position
Ethereum Up or Down - October 25, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET
Ends Oct 25, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $31.82
Yes position
Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on May 29?
Ends May 29, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $31.69
Down position
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET
Ends Oct 24, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $31.21
Yes position
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in June?
Ends Jul 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $30.83
N
No position
Will the US-Iran deal be physically signed by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $30.4
Yes position
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $90 on June 1?
Ends Jun 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $29
Up position
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET
Ends Oct 30, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $27.32
No position
Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on May 29?
Ends May 29, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $26.9
Down position
Ethereum Up or Down - October 24, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET
Ends Oct 24, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $26.85
Down position
Ethereum Up or Down - October 25, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET
Ends Oct 25, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $25.45
Down position
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET
Ends Oct 27, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $25.25
No position
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?
Ends Jul 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 2.7%
- Multiplier
- 37.04x
- User PnL
- $24
Down position
Ethereum Up or Down - October 24, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET
Ends Oct 24, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $23.78
Up position
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 25, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET
Ends Oct 25, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $23.33
Up position
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 25, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET
Ends Oct 25, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $23.13
Up position
Ethereum Up or Down - November 11, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET
Ends Nov 11, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $22.4
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?Yes 11% 221.32 shares
- Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?Yes 13% 7 shares
- Will claude-opus-4-6-thinking be the best AI model on July 4, 2026?No 6.1% 59.99 shares
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 28?Yes 45% 41.74 shares
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 28?Yes 46% 15 shares
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 28?Yes 46% 15 shares
- Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $720 in June?Yes 14% 100 shares
- Will Cait Conley win the NY-17 Democratic Primary by 10–15%?Yes 33% 50 shares
- Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $720 in June?Yes 15% 169.81 shares
- Will Abbas Araghchi sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?Yes 29% 49.68 shares
- Will Steve Witkoff sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?Yes 10.3% 100 shares
- Will Antonio Reynoso win the NY-07 Democratic Primary by less than 5%?Yes 10.1% 74.25 shares