yee123

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $8.96K
Potential profit: $8.96K
User PnL: -$2.64K

No position

Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 30?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $7.8K
Potential profit: $7.8K
User PnL: -$4.37K

No position

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 96.5%
Current value: $1.93K
Potential payout: $2K
Potential profit: $70
Multiplier: 1.04x
User PnL: $370

Yes position

New pandemic in 2026?

Implied probability: 9.5%
Current value: $174.38
Potential payout: $1.84K
Potential profit: $1.66K
Multiplier: 10.53x
User PnL: -$45.79

No position

Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by May 15?

Ends May 15, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $1.5K
Potential profit: $1.5K
User PnL: -$1.01K

Spurs position

Knicks vs. Spurs

Ends Jun 14, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $1.44K
Potential profit: $1.44K
User PnL: -$693.95

No position

Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $1K
Potential profit: $1K
User PnL: -$300

Yes position

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?

Ends Jul 15, 2026

Implied probability: 22.5%
Current value: $225
Potential payout: $1K
Potential profit: $775
Multiplier: 4.44x
User PnL: -$145

No position

US x Iran ceasefire by December 31?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $999.98
Potential profit: $999.98
User PnL: -$289.99

Yes position

Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31?

Implied probability: 6.5%
Current value: $57.98
Potential payout: $891.97
Potential profit: $833.99
Multiplier: 15.38x
User PnL: -$372.35

No position

Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15?

Ends Apr 15, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $629.82
Potential profit: $629.82
User PnL: -$231.59

No position

Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026?

Ends Nov 3, 2026

Implied probability: 89.9%
Current value: $303.35
Potential payout: $337.62
Potential profit: $34.27
Multiplier: 1.11x
User PnL: $7.48

Yes position

Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $308.33
Potential profit: $308.33
User PnL: -$73.92

Yes position

Will Iran strike Oman again in March?

Ends Mar 7, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $272.57
Potential profit: $272.57
User PnL: -$190.51

No position

Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?

Implied probability: 17.7%
Current value: $47.44
Potential payout: $268.02
Potential profit: $220.58
Multiplier: 5.65x
User PnL: -$143.56

No position

Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?

Ends Nov 3, 2026

Implied probability: 80%
Current value: $177.62
Potential payout: $222.02
Potential profit: $44.4
Multiplier: 1.25x
User PnL: $31.08

Yes position

Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by April 30?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $200
Potential profit: $200
User PnL: -$14.2

No position

Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?

Implied probability: 73.5%
Current value: $147
Potential payout: $200
Potential profit: $53
Multiplier: 1.36x
User PnL: $21

Yes position

Will Eric Swalwell win the California Governor Election in 2026?

Ends Nov 3, 2026

Implied probability: 0.1%
Current value: $0.1
Potential payout: $200
Potential profit: $199.9
Multiplier: 2000.00x
User PnL: -$91.9

No position

Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026?

Implied probability: 97%
Current value: $193.9
Potential payout: $200
Potential profit: $6.1
Multiplier: 1.03x
User PnL: $25.9

No position

US forces enter Iran by December 31?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $200
Potential profit: $200
User PnL: -$100

Yes position

Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $187.3
Potential profit: $187.3
User PnL: -$63.68

No position

Will 45 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between March 30-April 5?

Ends Apr 5, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $153.98
Potential profit: $153.98
User PnL: -$32.75

Yes position

Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0.3%
Current value: $0.03
Potential payout: $11.39
Potential profit: $11.36
Multiplier: 400.00x
User PnL: -$2.93

Resolved Context

Closed positions

Yes position

Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $8.94K

Yes position

US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?

Ends Apr 7, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $3.51K

Yes position

Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $3.02K

No position

Will Iran strike Israel on March 6?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $2.18K

No position

Will Tesla (TSLA) beat quarterly earnings?

Ends Oct 22, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $2.04K

Yes position

Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after September 2025 meeting?

Ends Sep 17, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.87K

Yes position

Moltbook AI agent sues a human by Feb 28?

Ends Feb 28, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.57K

Yes position

Lighter market cap (FDV) >$1B one day after launch?

Ends Jan 1, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.49K

Yes position

Will the US add between 0 and 25k jobs in September?

Ends Oct 3, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.38K

No position

US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?

Ends Jan 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $1.34K

No position

Will Jeff Bezos attend Super Bowl LX?

Ends Feb 8, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.31K

Yes position

US forces enter Iran by April 30?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.27K

Yes position

Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after October 2025 meeting?

Ends Oct 29, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.14K

Yes position

Will 3 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025?

Ends Dec 10, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.11K

Yes position

Will the Seattle Seahawks win Super Bowl 2026?

Ends Feb 8, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.11K

Yes position

Will Trump sell 0 Gold Cards in 2025?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.08K

Yes position

Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.02K

No position

Will Trump talk to Mark Rutte in March?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1K

Yes position

Epstein blackmail evidence released by March 31?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $967.51

Yes position

Will Mamdani get over 50% of the vote in the general mayoral election?

Ends Nov 3, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $962.04

No position

Will Saudi Arabia strike Iran by March 31?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $952.96

No position

Will Meta Platforms (META) beat quarterly earnings?

Ends Oct 29, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $946.54

No position

US x Iran ceasefire by March 31?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $910.94

Yes position

Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair?